January 2022 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

MJO continues its journey in phase 7 with the invisible phase 8 border in sight but not quite there yet. Some Clouds and convection are where we would like to see for phase 8 east of Australia, but much more clouds and convection to the north and NW of Australia where we don't want if a true 8 is to be desired. A big difference in the weeks ahead if we go full bore into 8 or continue to sniff the outer edges

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[tron777]

Per the Aussies, we are 3/4's of the way thru Phase 7 as of 12/29.

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[airwolf76]

^ kind of looks like it will barely get into 8 and then head to the circle.

[tron777]

^ kind of looks like it will barely get into 8 and then head to the circle.

Model guidance is all over the place. Some do just that. Some keep it in 7, others 8, and another even into Phase 1. Given the trends of the models being too aggressive with the eastward movement of the MJO wave itself, the idea of perhaps weakly getting into 8 then dying into the neutral circle is possible. Doesn't mean an end to the pattern, just means something else will be driving it. I'd like the MJO to get into 8 and stay there if not eventually 1. If so, with a -EPO / +PNA pattern in a La Nina, the goods for both our areas can be delivered despite lack of a -NAO. The Pacific is way more important to have correct.

[tron777]

So far folks for the snow shower action on Sunday, the bulk of the accumulating snow will be south of our CWA the way it looks to me. Low should ride thru TN. We would need that a little further north for more of ILN's area to get involved. Still think we see flurries and snow showers just not a ton of moisture to work with in the CAA regime. If the low were a bit closer then all bets would be off. Might be a few inches for the mountains of Eastern KY and WVA and perhaps even NE TN too.

[tpweather]

Looking forward to later next week. A true arctic front is heading this way and usually when you get these low pressure will form somewhere when the cold and milder air out ahead meets up. Trying to pinpoint until the current storm is done will be tough for models. One run no storm and the next a big storm so we just will probably need to wait until Monday or so though I believe a storm will happen but location is the question that I don't have an answer for at this time. How cold will it get next weekend and with more and more snow cover in the northern and central plains plus if we get some late next week then I can no doubt see the first single digit lows heading this way. Will this be a temporary pattern change or one that stays around for several weeks. The good thing is finally we have plenty of winter weather to talk about for at least the first half of January. I laugh at some of the national mets talking about a January Thaw in mid-January which happens quite often but sort of tough to have a thaw if nothing is frozen though maybe we get lucky and next weeks cold spell gets us to a point where the ground does freeze up some. Over the past month we have had a couple of bullies in the tropical areas which include the Philippines and also northeast coast of South America which was the kicker that continued the warm spell for us. Tons of flooding in northwest Brazil and the tropical system that just gave them so much rain help the heights to the north of there and we got that huge and strong southeast ridge which connected to the southwest ridge that was kicked out and well we know what happen. The good thing is the bullies are leaving but they did their damage. The normal bully in the winter which is cold has a chance to take over for several weeks. I have never seen a November so calm in the mainland USA followed by the kind of storminess we had in December. Sure we have had those in the past but this year was to the extreme. Just seem like the months switched this year and hopefully we get back to a more normal pattern.

[tron777]

Going to be leaving for my brother's for New Year's here soon and will be back on here to talk snow tomorrow afternoon (even though it'll be raining lol). Hopefully the model continue tot rend favorably for 1/6.

[tron777]

12Z GFS and CMC looking good for 1/6.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS and CMC looking good for 1/6.

I like these systems attached to an arctic front. Will not be the biggest or strongest storm but what you get is cold air coming into the system and the ratios go up. So yo could get .25 inches liquid and that can lead to 3-4 inches. This will also have wind involved so travel could become a problem especially with temps falling. Still have several days to look at this but at this point chances for snow look rather high. Saturday morning could no doubt see that single digit low especially if we get snow cover and the winds die down.

[cloudy72]

12z GFS fantasy range says....you want winter? Then winter you shall have! Bitter cold showing mid-month.

[tpweather]

12z GFS fantasy range says....you want winter? Then winter you shall have! Bitter cold showing mid-month.

Mike, if the mjo heads into 8 or even 1 cold is coming this way. Even if we hit the COD it will be colder. To much cold air to the north and west plus we are starting to get a nice snow cover over the northern half of the country. Having the cold in Alaska and much of western and central Canada will combine with systems still coming across the country and bring down the colder air. Just seems like one of those deals where the damn breaks. Again December was such a bad forecast by me and at least I figured out where I went wrong and hopefully January will be a better month in the forecasting business. Give props to Bgoney who never bought the colder air coming in December and that was a wonderful forecat.

[MVWxObserver]

HAVE A HAPPY AND HEALTHY 2022, AV COMMUNITY FAMILY!!!!

[Bgoney]

HNY everyone . Goodbye December. Hello January. Finished 8.9 degrees above normal average, good enough for #2 warmest behind 2015. However we toppled 2015 for #1 in the temp max dept. , a mind blowing 54.3. Trev wins this round in blowout fashion, obviously having his birthday wish come true

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[tron777]

GFS and CMC overnight looked weaker with the 1/6 event. Euro looked nice! Happy New Year and let's hope we've got our first event coming together here soon.

[young pup]

Happy New Year to all. Hope January will be nicer to us then December.

[tpweather]

GFS and CMC overnight looked weaker with the 1/6 event. Euro looked nice! Happy New Year and let's hope we've got our first event coming together here soon.

Good Morning Les. The models will go back and forth as we know. I believe a system will form and though not a strong storm but one where the ratios of snow will be more in the 12-1 and maybe 15-1 depending on how much cold gets wrapped into the system. Probably the bigger news is we could see temps near 0 by next weekend especially if we get some snow cover.

Many times we look at Alaska and in the winter time we tend to get the opposite weather. Next week is a little different as the storm parade is ending in Alaska and what is happening though is with the heavy snow cover in the central and northern areas for this time of year will keep the temps below normal especially at night. This is more due to the heavy snow cover then anything. Fairbanks is usually around 0 for a high and lows around -15 for this time of year. They will be a good 10 degrees colder than normal for the reasons I mentioned.

Back here we will get a little milder Monday and Tuesday but a cold front on Wednesday will set up the weather for later this week. This front will stall to our south but bring in enough cold air that the forming system along a much stronger front will help produce precip in the form of snow. How much is way to early to tell and the worse case is the second front is so strong that the low ramps up to our east and we just get some lighter snow showers but very cold afterwards.

The MJO which is heading towards phase 8 or the COD. We must remember the COD or circle of death is not always bad and really depends when it goes into that area will make a big difference on the weather conditions. So lets say it hits phase 8 but then into the COD well phase 8 is a cold one for us and this could be the outcome if it hits the COD. How cold is something we need to watch as we are getting fresh snow cover for the northern half of the country and fresh snow combined with the true arctic air to the north and west promotes what winter lovers love to have.

More later and tons to talk about as we enter 2022 and Happy New Year to everyone

[cloudy72]

Happy New Years all!!

[tron777]

GFS and CMC still very weak with 1/6.

[tron777]

Going to start a thread for the 1/6 event.

Link to new thread: https://www.absolutevorticity.com/viewt ... p?f=9&t=99

[tron777]

Current time periods I am currently watching for snow:

1/2 - Tomorrow maybe a few flakes but the deeper moisture is going to remain well south over KY and TN.
1/6 - See new thread I have started for this event. Much more to come with that one. Strength of system TBD
1/9 - 1/10: Another frontal system and associated wave
1/14 - 1/15: Bigger storm potential, more widespread and longer lasting ahead of the next arctic blast.

Avg to below avg temps thru the period. I think we've got a nice pattern coming up that holds potential for the next couple of weeks. We're losing the -PNA and IMO it's going to go positive. Losing the NAO blocking but seeing more signs of a -AO as we approach mid month and thus, I think a better chance at a more phased system being possible. My tone is much more positive today after looking over a few things. MJO is deep in Phase 7. Still a question mark about 8 but the longer term pattern certainly reflects an MJO Phase 8 look with the -EPO and +PNA taking over the pattern for a while. Now it's just a matter of how much snow does this new pattern produce? That's all anyone ever remembers or cares about anyways lol

[Bgoney]

The Long wait for winter cold with some meat to it finally arrives by weeks end, let the games begin!!!!

[tron777]

Per the Aussies, as of 12/31 we're almost to Phase 8. Today is 1/2 so we maybe in Phase 8 now or if not, we're really close.

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This is def helping with getting a more robust -EPO / +PNA pattern to get going for a little while. Cold and wintry precip chances should be going up and that IMO beings with the possible Thurs event that we are covering in that thread.

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The EPO has been negative since before Christmas but the position of the EPO ridge (which is more important) is finally going more poleward and working in conjunction with the +PNA ridge. That is when things get more fun.

[tron777]

A nice snow storm from ARK thru S KY / TN into the Mid Atlantic states today and tomorrow. Snow developing across ARK. Models showed nothing so places like Fayetteville and Little Rock reporting up to an inch of snow. This means that we could be dealing with a stronger system here and a further north solution. Doesn't mean much for us, other then to keep the clouds around and chances for flurries this afternoon to perhaps even snow showers in the far south.

[Browneyedgirl]

Flurries in Liberty Township. Kind of hard to see but the dog has snow on him.

[Bgoney]

Agree Les we are sniffing 8, I don't think it is a true 8 with all the clouds and moisture still north of Australia(7 phase), but we have nice convection near the invisible 7/8 border.

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