18Z HRRR and NAM soundings near CVG valid for Wed evening:

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northern
Kentucky, and southwest and west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday ...

I agree Les and that is why I moved my numbers up and have 6-8 inches locally. Rare event to say the least and yes sometimes folks say that and its like don't you remember last year when this happened. That is not the case here and though the event has not started yet and really its the final ...

12Z Euro coming in now and it is active with the warm front for Wed morning. Event total rainfall at CVG is 5.93" so almost 6" And that is on the lower end of the model range. Man oh man!

My God... 9.07" at CVG from the 12Z GFS - event total then an additional 0.05" QPF that falls as snow Mon night with a little clipper like system. What the hell is going on?!?!? Wow... I cannot believe the QPF totals we are seeing here.

Concerning Wednesday what is timing of the bad weather expected/


If the warm front stays quiet in the morning then we are good until the late afternoon or evening hours. We need to see what happens very early Wed morning first with that warm front. If it is active then we get severe wx with it ...

Kind of hard to comprehend how much qpf potential we have going on here. That’s not your normal skinny axis of heavier rains , that’s a couple hundred mile wide band of 6”-12”+ and 4-6” surrounding that on either side .


I don't recall ever seeing such an expansive area of precip from a non ...

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Apr 01, 2025 12:14 pm Any thoughts on how high the river will get?

It really will depend on how much falls upstream and into the tributaries of the Ohio upstream from Cincinnati. That will take longer to respond whereas creeks and streams and smaller rivers, we will see a much faster response.

Get done today anything outside you need to get done. You may have part of tomorrow also as long as the warm front isn't active in the morning of course. However, the wind will be cranking regardless of storms so there's that.

BG's call for rainfall. I pulled it from this mornings blog video. Wow... look at this! I thought it was a snow storm forecast at first.

I thought the HRRR was bad, this is down right scary from the `12Z NAM. Image valid for Wed night near CVG.

Good morning AV family! I agree with the forecasts on here. It doesn't look good and quite frankly I can't recall the last time I saw this much QPF printed out for such a large area that included us (echoing Bgoney's thoughts). Let's just hope the HRRR doesn't verify because it looks downright ...

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Apr 01, 2025 9:12 am Just the synoptic winds tomorrow will be gusting in the 40-50 mph range per models

No doubt! The strong southerly flow is going to be ridiculous on Wed, esp if we get some sun to help mix those higher winds down.

In addition to thew severe threats we are watching for Wed and Thurs, the SPC has us outlooked for severe wx (it's close for Cincy) on Fri and Sat too. The threat is south of us by Sunday.

I am still going with 4-6" of rain at this point in time. I think that's a really good guess right now. We'll see what happens tomorrow with the warm front. If it comes thru somewhat dry and cloudless, then we are in trouble for Wed evening. We shall see!

Tigers get a W finally 9-6. Next one against SEA is tonight at 9:40pm with Casey Mize.

18Z GFS was overall slower too. The system exit is not until Monday the 7th as some mixed light rain and snow. :lol:


The euro has been steady so far Les and yes higher than the gfs locally. This will be interesting to say the least and hopefully folks will pay attention and yes most folks ...

After the flooding event (which is being covered in the other thread), the extended range is looking cooler then normal if not cold at times thru mid month. It looks like our old friend the -NAO / +PNA combo pattern is coming back. That usually means colder for us but drier, which will be sorely ...

18Z GFS was overall slower too. The system exit is not until Monday the 7th as some mixed light rain and snow.

No doubt... that is some serious talk from ILN! So is this:

When all is said and done, 4 to as much as 7 inches of rainfall will
have fallen for the bulk of the CWA by daybreak Sunday, with the
highest amounts expected to be found south and west of metro
Cincinnati. Unfortunately, this is a higher ...

Flood Watch now up from the boys for the entire AV Forum coverage area:

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette,
Franklin, Ohio, Ripley ...

Thanks Tim! Let's get some maps posted. First, severe wx probs from the SPC for Wed and Thurs, Days 3 / 4:


day3otlk_0730.gif


day48prob.gif


WPC Excessive rainfall outlooks Day 3, 4, and 5:






WPC Day3.gif


WPC Day 4.gif


WPC Day 5.gif


WPC Day 7 Total QPF - 7" for Cincinnati if ...

I think this event deserves its own thread. A severe wx / Flooding combo.

Link to storm thread for Wed - Sun period: viewtopic.php?t=411

Please use this thread for anything else April. Thanks all!