78 / 63 at CVG. Hoping to get the grass mowed after work before the storms hit. Gonna be cutting it close.

DCAPE is at the 1100-1200 J/KG range so damaging winds are going to be a major threat with these cells.

My Aunt in St Charles MO reporting large hail and they are in the basement under a tornado warning. Radar shows a big cell over them. We are watching this activity for us later as well as anything that may, or may not pop out ahead of it.

Sunny skies here with a temp of 76 and a dew of 65.

No changes to the 1630 Z update from the SPC.

The sun will come out. Seeing CAPE of 2000 J/kg just off to the West so we'll be plenty unstable. Don't you worry about that.

An update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Increased PoPs across the south with the morning update based on
radar trends with convection focused mostly over northern Kentucky.
In addition, the cloud shield associated with these storms have led
to slightly lower max temps this ...

14Z HRRR looks pretty potent this evening!

Just a ground wetter here, not a big deal.

Getting a t-storm here now... non severe.

12Z NAM is doing the Cincy Tri-state split lol

Pretty big change from latest Hrrr for NKentucky. Slices off the severe line at the river , apparently thinking the atmosphere was affected by this morning’s activity to our south . IDK, seems like we should have plenty of of time to recover in that area . Not buying that atm.



IMG_3636.jpeg ...

No changes to the SPC Day 1 Outlook:


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


We should get another update around 12:30.

This Week in Weather came out last night from DT:

The warning has expired and that cell will miss me to the south. After that passes, we should be free and clear until this evening IMO. I think most of the Central KY activity will stay southbound.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana...
Carroll County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...

* Until 830 AM EDT.

* At 801 ...

Good morning, We have prom tonight over in Northern Kentucky. Not sure if you have any ideas yet on timing. Wondering if we should we be concerned about the students leaving around 10:30'ish and driving back across the river?


It'll be close but the storms maybe done by then for some areas. For ...

Good morning and obviously out concern is severe wx for late this afternoon and evening. The data continues to grow more concerning since the daytime activity looks to stay far enough away not to impact our atmosphere very much. If this is correct, then we all stand a higher risk. 6Z HRRR shows a ...

NAM and HRRR on their 18Z runs are converging somewhat now in terms of two rounds. Differ a bit on placement and timing. Primarily looking to be Cincy on south event or NKY on south event depending on what model you choose. They want to bring in an MCS esp for KY Fri afternoon in that 5-7pm window ...

Biggest change has been to expand the Moderate risk area into our extreme SW counties. SW of Cincy Metro. All severe modes are possible. My ranking of the hazards from highest to lowest:

1) Damaging wind
2) Large Hail
3) Tornadoes
4) Flash flooding

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu May 15, 2025 6:29 pm The breeze and some scattered clouds made it nicer for my Dad and I's next round of Spring tournament Bocce ball as this afternoon we and a pair of women split the 2 games set 1-1.

Cool! Glad you guys finally got some dry time in.

Disagreement from the hires models is pretty significant on timing and placement of clusters of storms for all of tomorrow. Hopefully Oz narrows is down better


Yeah,,, it's a difference between maybe seeing isolated severe vs a full blown outbreak, Right now, it is truly a conditional set up ...

Some differences I am noticing in the modeling... 12Z HRRR has afternoon convection Fri which limits the evening potential. The NAM keeps anything S of us on Friday until Fri evening thru about 1am (so it's a bit slower too) so thus, a higher severe threat.