May 2025 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Hires models are now saying “ what severe “for a good chunk of the moderate index boundary. Be interesting to see what the SPC says this pm

[tron777]

Getting a t-storm here now... non severe.

[BookNerdCarp]

Gonna be hard to recover in my hood....locked into rain and clouds for the time being.

[tron777]

Just a ground wetter here, not a big deal.

[Bgoney]

Getting a t-storm here now... non severe.

This is what the Hrrr wasn’t showing early this morning , with the showers reaching and crossing the river into our area

[Bgoney]

13z Hrrr back to the extended severe line through Kentucky.

[tron777]

14Z HRRR looks pretty potent this evening!

[tpweather]

I agree with the HRRR and though a hiccup a couple hours of go I believe its doing well with the system. The part of the system we get is with the cold front itself which is potent to say the least. This will be short-lived though and that is the good part and though we can still get heavy rain it looks like only a couple of hours at best so that really does help with the flooding issue though you can get a brief flash flood for an hour or so. I agree with Les the biggest item will be the very strong winds for a few hours and yes those can imo get over 60 mph in some places. Will watch the next few hours and see how much sun breaks out and yes it should break out I would say from west to east starting around 1pm until 3pm.

[tron777]

An update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Increased PoPs across the south with the morning update based on
radar trends with convection focused mostly over northern Kentucky.
In addition, the cloud shield associated with these storms have led
to slightly lower max temps this afternoon. Latest CAMs have started
backing off storm development for late this afternoon into the
evening. Will need to monitor these trends for more significant grid
updates.

Previous discussion: Main focus today is the potential for a
significant severe weather outbreak. In the warm sector strong
instability is expected to develop today with SBCAPE values of
2500-3500 J/kg. This combined with increasing deep layer shear
(effective shear around 60 kts) will lead to the threat for strong to
severe storms.

CAM solutions continue to show a very good signal for storm development
to our west - which organizes into bowing segments as they move
eastward into the Ohio Valley. This complex of strong to severe
storms is expected to impact the area late this afternoon into this
evening. Exact timing is still somewhat uncertain but the greatest
impacts look to occur as early as 5 pm across eastern Indiana/southwest
Ohio and northern Kentucky and then spread quickly east across the
area thru the evening. All severe weather hazards are possible from
these storms. The greatest threat area for significant severe weather
is across the Cincinnati Tri-state region. There is also the
possibility of locally heavy rain which could result in flash
flooding. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and a
plan in place should a warning be issued.

In the humid airmass high temperatures will top out in the lower and
middle 80s. Southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph.

Storms diminishing quickly late this evening into the overnight
hours. A low pop shower or storm threat will continue across the far
northern counties overnight in response to a shortwave rotating
around the upper low moving into the Great Lakes. Lows tonight range
from near 60 north to the lower 60s south.

[MVWxObserver]

Sun is breaking through here in G'ville and currently at 79 with a DP 59.

[tron777]

The sun will come out. Seeing CAPE of 2000 J/kg just off to the West so we'll be plenty unstable. Don't you worry about that.

[tron777]

No changes to the 1630 Z update from the SPC.

[Bgoney]

Not any big differences from earlier in the latest SPC update

IMG_3637.jpeg

[Bgoney]

IMG_3638.gif

IMG_3639.gif

[tron777]

Sunny skies here with a temp of 76 and a dew of 65.

[BookNerdCarp]

Sun is peaking here in Georgetown, OH

[MVWxObserver]

Still holding steady at 79 with a DP 59 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

[Bgoney]

IMG_3643.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Winds have really picked up here and gusty

[MVWxObserver]

Now at 81 with a 61 DP here in G'ville.

[tron777]

My Aunt in St Charles MO reporting large hail and they are in the basement under a tornado warning. Radar shows a big cell over them. We are watching this activity for us later as well as anything that may, or may not pop out ahead of it.

[tron777]

DCAPE is at the 1100-1200 J/KG range so damaging winds are going to be a major threat with these cells.

[MVWxObserver]

My Aunt in St Charles MO reporting large hail and they are in the basement under a tornado warning. Radar shows a big cell over them. We are watching this activity for us later as well as anything that may, or may not pop out ahead of it.

Probably the same going on in O'Fallon, MO, too and not that far from St Charles. I have some cousins and their families in O'Fallon. Hail up to the size of softballs possible out that way.

[Bgoney]

SPC update



20z Update
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook.

Supercells are ongoing across Missouri producing large hail (up to 3-4 in). These storms will continue eastward through time across the Moderate Risk. The area ahead of these storms is continuing to warm and destabilize rapidly, with some increase in low level shear expected through the evening with an increase in the low level jet. This will support increasing potential for tornadoes, a couple of which may be intense and long-track across eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky. See MCD#817 for more information on the short term risk.