Absolute Vorticity

A new month... a new year... a new thread. Snow chances TBD this far out but the pattern looks active with numerous cold shots. MJO Phase 7 and we watch the Pacific for changes to see how cold we can get.

We start it off with a wet NYD then cold air on Sunday with falling temps. Any leftover moisture could mean some flakes. It is a little uncertain still to see if we get a secondary wave to assist or not.

Per the Aussies, we are about halfway thru Phase 7 and it's on the move, although slowly. GEFS and Euro both have the MJO going into Phase 8 again and I am going to be in the I'll believe it when I see it camp. We'll have to see how many of these systems cut or do we see a scenario of the first one cuts, and a second one follows in on its heels for a shot of wintry precip. I could see both scenarios being possible in the first 10 days of the month.

Hey Les , I have no changes from yesterdays post about MJO and first 7 days of the month. I continue to watch satellite pics for the MJO region and the clouds and precip are still mostly just north of Australia , with another cluster further SE, so the slow boat to China progression to me , is the way to go

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:35 am Hey Les , I have no changes from yesterdays post about MJO and first 7 days of the month. I continue to watch satellite pics for the MJO region and the clouds and precip are still mostly just north of Australia , with another cluster further SE, so the slow boat to China progression to me , is the way to go



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If I were you, I would stay away from China. Just my 2 cents. LOL

Great Posts guys. Part of the problem has been the area around Australia and also in the area of northeast South America. Brazil especially the northeast areas were hit with heavy rain in early November and then that area moved further to the north which expanded heights in the southeast USA. That area moved back over parts of northeast Brazil with tons of flooding but is moving away and another block that has kept the area with milder than normal temps. We always talk about blocking in the northern areas of the world but plenty of blocking in the tropics and I believe we had blocking in the southern USA for much of December. We tend to look at the blocking that can deliver cold weather but we tend to ignore the blocking in other regions that can lead to warmer weather in the winter.

BTW western Japan got hit with record snows once again us the winds over the sea between China and Japan was very strong and dumping feet of snow to the country. Fairbanks averages around 10 inches of snow in Dec and already near 35 inches and another foot is possible over the next few days.

This tells me mother nature is trying her best to balance things out but she is working overtime.

12Z GFS is back to showing the SE ridge from hell again and the -PNA never relaxes.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:36 am 12Z GFS is back to showing the SE ridge from hell again and the -PNA never relaxes.

I expect a little push back from the SE ridge but I believe its more of a temporary ridge and the pna hopefully will be more near normal and that is fine with all the cold and snow to the northwest.

NYE night into NYD - Euro has 3" of rain at CVG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:44 pm NYE night into NYD - Euro has 3" of rain at CVG.

That has been a concern. I was trying to figure out where that heavy rain sets up. Big temp difference going to lead to a big storm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 3:07 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:44 pm NYE night into NYD - Euro has 3" of rain at CVG.

That has been a concern. I was trying to figure out where that heavy rain sets up. Big temp difference going to lead to a big storm

Yeah. Snow and severe wx both and we'll be in the middle just getting wet. Might see some flakes Sunday we'll see. I think we will moderate for a bit after this cold shot but have a more sustained cold shot sometime after the 1/7 to 1/10 period.

I saw where Kodiak,Alaska set and all time record on Sunday for the highest temperature ever in the state for the month of December at 67 degrees. The media picked this up but ignored the weather they had in all of November and much of December with cold and snow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:36 pm I saw where Kodiak,Alaska set and all time record on Sunday for the highest temperature ever in the state for the month of December at 67 degrees. The media picked this up but ignored the weather they had in all of November and much of December with cold and snow.

Tim, did you see next week the panhandle of Alaska is expecting record challenging cold?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:52 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:36 pm I saw where Kodiak,Alaska set and all time record on Sunday for the highest temperature ever in the state for the month of December at 67 degrees. The media picked this up but ignored the weather they had in all of November and much of December with cold and snow.

Tim, did you see next week the panhandle of Alaska is expecting record challenging cold?

Bgoney, I did see that and hopefully that is key in finally sending a bigger arctic outburst this way late next week or weekend.

It's at least nice to see snowstorm potential on the long range GFS - yeah it's fantasy range but better than the blowtorches we have seen in past runs. LOL

It appears that we may lose the -NAO in the long range but gain a better looking Pacific. More ridging for AK and a neutral PNA. The big time -PNA may also be backing off some. It looks like we'll get a shot of cold air, potential flakes on Sunday. Then we moderate 4th - 7th time range then another front which kicks off the actual colder then avg look with disturbances dropping SE and amplifying at the right time for portions of AV Country to receive some snow.

Potential flake periods to watch: Jan 2nd, Jan 7th and Jan 10th A much better looking pattern showing up here. Hopefully the Ensembles agree. They improved overnight for sure.

It's fantasy range as Mike said but the pattern is ripe for overrunning snows on this GFS run from around 1/10 onwards.

It may be in fantasy land. We at least having something to look at. I will take it.

The pattern evolving is cold and wintry. PV moves into S Canada with a monster ridging along the West Coast of North America into AK and the North Pole. Nice Aleutian Low which pumps up the ridge over the Pacific in a better spot for us to get cold. Def more MJO Phase 8 like vs 7 being depicted.

12Z GEFS shows more ridging over the SW and California now as early as 1/7. Nice trough centered over the MS Valley. Should be good for wintry precip here. I like what I see if it doesn't get pushed back and delayed again.

12Z Canadian has not much happening thru 1/7 until as front passes to get us cold. Then a nice overrunning system bringing snow north and a mix south at Day 10.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:00 pm It's fantasy range as Mike said but the pattern is ripe for overrunning snows on this GFS run from around 1/10 onwards.

well thats good i guess. went through all of Nov and Dec with only 1 inch of snow

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 29, 2021 1:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:00 pm It's fantasy range as Mike said but the pattern is ripe for overrunning snows on this GFS run from around 1/10 onwards.

well thats good i guess. went through all of Nov and Dec with only 1 inch of snow

0.6" here.

No accum expected but even the Euro has falling temps and some snow showers on Sunday.

12Z Canadian Ensemble has a monster +PNA / -EPO pattern in the 10 to 15 day.

Finally a winter like day in the forecast for Sunday and a closer to normal temp week to follow.

Leave it to the 18Z GFS to bring the 1060 MB high back into SW Canada as we near Day 10.