Absolute Vorticity

Use this thread to discuss Eastern and Central Pacific storms.

Here are the list of names below in the East Pac season for 2021:

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Pamela
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

NHC has a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days with a disturbance off of the Mexican Coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

We have a high chance of a tropical wave off of Mexico becoming our 1st named East Pac system of the season, in the next few days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

TD 2E is moving to the WNW at 35 mph and is expected to become a named system soon. This one looks to stay a TS and not harm any land masses at this time.

Now have a named system in the East Pac as Blanca has formed. So Andres formed earlier in the Spring?

Must have Eric and we missed it. Blanca is now a TD and will be gone here shortly.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.s ... t#contents

There are a couple of disturbances off of Mexico that we're watching. 40-50% chance of development over the next 5 days.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST
PACIFIC......EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 123.6W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Full Outlook:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2045.shtml

We have TS Carlos with winds of 45 mph. Expected to remain a TS and not bother any land areas.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.s ... t#contents

Carlos is barely holding on with winds of 40 mph. A TD is in its future and will be gone by mid week.

Carlos is a TD almost ready to move over into the Central Pacific. It's basically just about done. Next wave off the Mexican Coast has a 60% chance in the next 5 days of development.

90% chance in the next 48 hours with the Mexican Wave. This one should get a name soon and become Dolores.

TD4-E moving WNW with sustained wind of 35 mph. It is forecast to become TS Dolores before the day is over.

We've got a disturbance near the Mexican Coast. A 70% chance in the next 48 hours for development, and a 90% chance in the next 5 days. So far, this one doesn't want to move away from the coast, It wants to linger so we'll see what happens with this tropical wave as time goes on.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

TS Enique is born off the Mexican Coast.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.7W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the
southwestern cost of Mexico later today. Interests in this area
should monitor the progress of Enrique.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.7 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Enrique will move parallel to, and offshore of, the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Enrique is expected to become a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Enrique has winds of 50 mph this evening moving WNW at 8 mph paralleling the coast. See track map below. This one is expected to become a hurricane in the next 24 hours. Perhaps a Cat 2 out of it before moving over cooler waters and weakening in the days to come. Could certainly cause some wave and rain issues for the Coast and tip of the Baja Penn.

Enrique is now a Cat1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. No changes to movement or track but the intensity forecast has now gone up. We could see a high end Cat 2 now out of this one, perhaps even a low end Cat 3. Could be the first major hurricane of the season should things come together just right.

Enrique has winds of 90 mph this morning moving N at 4 mph towards the Mexican Coast. Still expecting a peak intensity of a Cat 2 before slowly weakening thanks to land interaction.

Enrique is down to a TS now with winds of 45 mph moving NW at 6. This is towards the tip of the Baja Penn.

TS Enrique has winds of 40 mph in the Gulf of California moving NW at 6 mph. He will die off in the next day or so over the Baja Penn.

50% chance in the next 5 days as the East Pac wakes back up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

Up to a 70% chance now. Only thing going on the entire planet tropically speaking attm:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Tropical Storm Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
715 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the depression has
strengthened to Tropical Storm Felicia. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The 900 AM
MDT (1500 UTC) advisory will reflect this change and provide an
updated intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 715 AM AST...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 113.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES