Absolute Vorticity

The first month of Met Fall is almost here! We've got Labor Day Weekend / WEBN Fireworks as well early in the month. Sept can be a hot month sometimes, and a beautiful time of year too (as in lower humidity and cooler temps). For this year, we look to start off on the cooler and pleasant side as Ida finally moves by us on Wed morning, 9/1.

Discuss!

Sept continues to start out great (Minus SE Crew early Wed). Our first front for Sept comes in Sat afternoon and evening and ought of here very early Sunday morning. A 50 / 50 shot at a shower or t-storm and that's about it. Weather looks good otherwise and should be awesome for the WEBN Fireworks Sunday Night at 9:05pm. Labor Day also great!

Next front looks like it's due in about a week from today, around Tues afternoon and evening (9/7). More rain / storms and another shot of nice air behind that one. Sept looks much better then Aug at least to start out at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:08 am Sept continues to start out great (Minus SE Crew early Wed). Our first front for Sept comes in Sat afternoon and evening and ought of here very early Sunday morning. A 50 / 50 shot at a shower or t-storm and that's about it. Weather looks good otherwise and should be awesome for the WEBN Fireworks Sunday Night at 9:05pm. Labor Day also great!

Next front looks like it's due in about a week from today, around Tues afternoon and evening (9/7). More rain / storms and another shot of nice air behind that one. Sept looks much better then Aug at least to start out at this time.

Finally just checked out some ensembles , how refreshing , first half of month anyways. Looking g like the -EPO and -AO continue. Wonderful monsoon season this year should continue, but concern for a possible east coast tropical mischief may also be in the cards with blocking

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:08 am Sept continues to start out great (Minus SE Crew early Wed). Our first front for Sept comes in Sat afternoon and evening and ought of here very early Sunday morning. A 50 / 50 shot at a shower or t-storm and that's about it. Weather looks good otherwise and should be awesome for the WEBN Fireworks Sunday Night at 9:05pm. Labor Day also great!

Next front looks like it's due in about a week from today, around Tues afternoon and evening (9/7). More rain / storms and another shot of nice air behind that one. Sept looks much better then Aug at least to start out at this time.

Finally just checked out some ensembles , how refreshing , first half of month anyways. Looking g like the -EPO and -AO continue. Wonderful monsoon season this year should continue, but concern for a possible east coast tropical mischief may also be in the cards with blocking

Totally agree. MJO looks to take a tour thru Phases 3-4-5 in the next couple of weeks. Those are cooler phases for us in the East during the month of Sept, so it makes sense that we are seeing the blocking continue.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:03 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:08 am Sept continues to start out great (Minus SE Crew early Wed). Our first front for Sept comes in Sat afternoon and evening and ought of here very early Sunday morning. A 50 / 50 shot at a shower or t-storm and that's about it. Weather looks good otherwise and should be awesome for the WEBN Fireworks Sunday Night at 9:05pm. Labor Day also great!

Next front looks like it's due in about a week from today, around Tues afternoon and evening (9/7). More rain / storms and another shot of nice air behind that one. Sept looks much better then Aug at least to start out at this time.

Finally just checked out some ensembles , how refreshing , first half of month anyways. Looking g like the -EPO and -AO continue. Wonderful monsoon season this year should continue, but concern for a possible east coast tropical mischief may also be in the cards with blocking

Totally agree. MJO looks to take a tour thru Phases 3-4-5 in the next couple of weeks. Those are cooler phases for us in the East during the month of Sept, so it makes sense that we are seeing the blocking continue.

I agree guys and with the tropics trying to take a break look for more fronts to come through the area. Most of the time fronts in September with no tropical interaction rainfall is light at best. We are in the dry season during the growing season so this is very normal. Look for the west coast to get their normal Sept and Oct heat over the next few weeks. I agree as well that best shot for more tropical weather would be a hit to the southeast coast but nothing in the near future. Plenty of 70's for highs and 50's for lows which sounds wonderful.

Wow, ugly situation developing for the Northeast over the next few days . Sa.e areas that got flooded from Henri are going to get 5-10" from Ida . Not to mention tornadoes are likely for a large chunk of the coast

0.34" at CVG event total and about the same for myself. My light and unimpressive call was right on the money for this area anyways. Glad to see you all up to the north cash in!

Next up for us - Awesome weather! Enjoy my friends! Lower humidity and 70s / L80s are well deserved.

Good Morning and after a warm and wet August lets hope September comes in cooler and more in the way of dry weather. My summer forecast busted because of how July turned out and it just stayed way to wet well into the month which kept temps down. Ready for fall and back to mowing my grass twice a week which seldom happens this late in the season. I saw pics of Narrows rd in kenton county last friday evening and the flooding of the road which is about 3 miles to my south and makes sense. Such a small area that evening that got hit those 2 hours and during the 5pm-6pm I was unable to see more than about 6 feet away as the rain was that heavy. Sorry about the repeated post of this event but its one I have never seen and probably never see again.

All good Tim! It truly was an amazing event for you. I wish you would have snapped a pic that would have been awesome to see! Well, like you said, our heat call (and I say our, because I agreed with you on this) absolutely failed as a whole. I think we did well for August, but did not perform very well for June and July. We live and learn. Winter will be another had scratcher so I'm glad we've got plenty of time to dive into those details as Met Fall rolls on. For now, the first 10 days + of Sept look to be avg to below avg in temps with repeated frontal attacks from the NW. Rain chances and amounts with each system TBD.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:14 am All good Tim! It truly was an amazing event for you. I wish you would have snapped a pic that would have been awesome to see! Well, like you said, our heat call (and I say our, because I agreed with you on this) absolutely failed as a whole. I think we did well for August, but did not perform very well for June and July. We live and learn. Winter will be another had scratcher so I'm glad we've got plenty of time to dive into those details as Met Fall rolls on. For now, the first 10 days + of Sept look to be avg to below avg in temps with repeated frontal attacks from the NW. Rain chances and amounts with each system TBD.

Les, I never think about taking pics and I know most folks have their phones nearby but I was just enjoying the weather and not once thought about taking a pic. Old school and lucky to know where I put my phone down. June we did okay but July was not good and though nighttime temps were near normal but with the amount of rainfall daytime temp though warm we had a hard time of hitting the 90 degree mark.

Oops - sorry I forgot it is September already!

I don't have any pics of the flooding near Tim's hood - but do have something comparable. A couple days ago, prior to Ida's remnants, a slow moving back building thunderstorm dumped 4" of rain in about 30 minutes in my hometown of Huntington, WV leading to major flooding. My mom's basement flooded for the first time in years. Here are a couple pics I snagged off the web:

First pic is near Marshall University
Second pic is third avenue - the main drag into downtown. This was during rush hour on Monday too!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:14 am All good Tim! It truly was an amazing event for you. I wish you would have snapped a pic that would have been awesome to see! Well, like you said, our heat call (and I say our, because I agreed with you on this) absolutely failed as a whole. I think we did well for August, but did not perform very well for June and July. We live and learn. Winter will be another had scratcher so I'm glad we've got plenty of time to dive into those details as Met Fall rolls on. For now, the first 10 days + of Sept look to be avg to below avg in temps with repeated frontal attacks from the NW. Rain chances and amounts with each system TBD.

Les, I never think about taking pics and I know most folks have their phones nearby but I was just enjoying the weather and not once thought about taking a pic. Old school and lucky to know where I put my phone down. June we did okay but July was not good and though nighttime temps were near normal but with the amount of rainfall daytime temp though warm we had a hard time of hitting the 90 degree mark.

I should take way more pics then I do also Tim. I don't think about it a lot of the time either until after the fact.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:52 am Oops - sorry I forgot it is September already!

I don't have any pics of the flooding near Tim's hood - but do have something comparable. A couple days ago, prior to Ida's remnants, a slow moving back building thunderstorm dumped 4" of rain in about 30 minutes in my hometown of Huntington, WV leading to major flooding. My mom's basement flooded for the first time in years. Here are a couple pics I snagged off the web:

First pic is near Marshall University
flood.jpg


Second pic is third avenue - the main drag into downtown. This was during rush hour on Monday too!
flood2.jpg

Wow Mike! Get your rod out and fire up the trolling motor.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:52 am Oops - sorry I forgot it is September already!

I don't have any pics of the flooding near Tim's hood - but do have something comparable. A couple days ago, prior to Ida's remnants, a slow moving back building thunderstorm dumped 4" of rain in about 30 minutes in my hometown of Huntington, WV leading to major flooding. My mom's basement flooded for the first time in years. Here are a couple pics I snagged off the web:

First pic is near Marshall University
flood.jpg


Second pic is third avenue - the main drag into downtown. This was during rush hour on Monday too!
flood2.jpg

Nice pics Mike. The amount of moisture during August was quite impressive over the eastern half of the USA. During this time the pacific became rather quiet so once again mother nature must balance out the earth and once again did the job.

Pretty windy out there with N winds gusting to 25 or so already today. The good news... drier air continues to filter in. 50 degrees dews are closing in.

Love that breeze out there! Kind of stinks that my lunch break is over and I had to come back inside lol

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:02 pm9_1_2110.gif

A dire situation for sure in parts of the Mid Atl. and Southern New England.

There is a severe threat too with Ida for N VA, SE PA, and NJ. A tornado watch is likely to be issued for those areas shortly.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1668.html

ILN has my hood completely dry for the next 7 days. I do not agree. I am keeping in a slight chance for POPS Sat late afternoon and evening thru early Sun morning. GFS and Euro both have a few showers / t-storms being possible as a weak front comes thru. Tues of next week looks to have another one so sometime around then, more chance POPS are going to be needed. There will be plenty of dry time this weekend and Labor Day but the chance is there as I just mentioned. Not a huge deal, but I don't think going 100% dry is correct either.

12Z Euro is faster with that next front making it more of a Sat morning to afternoon deal and we're totally dry for Sunday versus the GFS bringing it in later..., Sat afternoon and evening ending early Sun morning. Euro beefed up the totals too showing a little bit better t-storm coverage also for the Metro and NKY especially. No idea if this is right or wrong since it's only Wednesday but the thoughts from my above post, are looking very good.

Hey guys, glad to be here in the new forum! Looking sharp! We are hoping to track a cold and snowy winter in the OV this year! ❄ ❄ ❄

Best,
Rich, Mandy, and Josh

SWC Expeditions
SWC Forecast Center

Weather101 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:26 pm Hey guys, glad to be here in the new forum! Looking sharp! We are hoping to track a cold and snowy winter in the OV this year! ❄ ❄ ❄

Best,
Rich, Mandy, and Josh

SWC Expeditions
SWC Forecast Center

Welcome back guys! Thanks for signing up. I see Josh created his own account also which is fantastic! Look around and feel free to provide any feed back. We've got some cool new features too. Attaching images is a snap now and this forum runs way better! We're ready to rock n roll this winter!

Same here. I have taken a giant step back in terms of social media the last couple years. Probably a bit because of all the “outside” garbage, but starting fresh seems like the right concept. So back and better than ever! Right?

Hello to all that still are here from the golden era.

Josh

SWC_Josh wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:54 pm Same here. I have taken a giant step back in terms of social media the last couple years. Probably a bit because of all the “outside” garbage, but starting fresh seems like the right concept. So back and better than ever! Right?

Hello to all that still are here from the golden era.

Josh

Completely agree Josh. Very glad to see you back on here. I have learned a lot from you and Rich over the years and hopefully vice versa. Love that 80 degree high today and that drop in humidity. These kind of temps are what I like every time accept in winter.