Absolute Vorticity

Yes it is August, but this is also the time of year when we monitor the tropics, and take a look at some early signals for the upcoming winter that we are beginning to see emerge.

1) Second Year Nina
2) QBO currently dropping
3) Warm North Pacific
4) Warm waters around Greenland / N ATL
5) Near Normal Indian Ocean / Aussie Areas
6) Persistent -EPO +PNA -NAO -AO pattern since February

So these are the current things that are going on that we're watching. Please include ENSO, QBO, SST's Soil, Solar, Snow and ice coverage, Seasonal Outlooks (Ones that are posted from the pros, a computer model, or your own!!!) , etc. in this thread. Let's get some decent Met. discussion going. Lots of time to discuss and post new data as it comes in.

I'll get things kicked off by posting the always entertaining Farmer's Almanac. Flaky or icy? Which one? Or is the forecaster a bit flaky who made this? You decide.

Honestly just draw a line right along I-70 as 9 times out of 10 it’s snow to the north and ice/rain to the south.

MEI index is lowest since 2011

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Aug 07, 2021 3:59 pm MEI index is lowest since 2011

2010-2011 was good. 2011-2012 was a 2nd year Nina. Not very good for snow at all but did have a nice ice storm. Some second year Ninas have been good. It is a 50 / 50 split literally when looking at 2nd year Ninas since 1950.

I foresee an early start to winter this year,

More LaNina evidence

Larry Cosgrove has these early analogs to offer based on the latest ONI index:

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramer ... T7lvY1VIyg

Best Analog Is: 2011 (x2)

Other Favorable Comparison Of ONI/ENSO Years:

1955, 1956, 1971, 1985, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2012, 2018

Established Synoptic Analogs:

1977, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2010

Last two times we were coming out of one solar cycle and starting another, we had a monster winter. 2002-2003 and again in 2009-2010. See graph below. For 2021-2022, we will be in that same spot on the graph. We started Solar Cycle 25 this year. Will this stand again?

I've read a lot of posts from this person over on American Wx. They are good at seasonal forecasting and they don't hype. They are from Albqu, NM so they do not have an I-95 East Coast bias. Anyway, if correct and we do see a +PDO, that is awesome when combined with a possible weak Nina for cold and snow prospects around here. Plus the solar min is likely going to contribute to some colder air pooling early. Which has already begun as Tim posted on last week. QBO also dropping as I mentioned so watch that. How fast and how far does it go? Then does it rise and how fast? All things we are watching folks. Almost time to talk about the stratosphere in the next month too.

Courtesy of WxDisco....

Thanks Bo! Looks Like JB is liking the early start to winter, as am I.

Weatherbell's prelim winter outlook is here from JB and company:

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-2021 ... er-outlook

They like the fast start as do I. This is what Bo was alluding too above.

If you scroll up above, the regular Farmer's Almanac said "Icy, Flaky" Well how about the kiss of death from the Old Farmer's Almanac?

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:57 pm If you scroll up above, the regular Farmer's Almanac said "Icy, Flaky" Well how about the kiss of death from the Old Farmer's Almanac?


OldFarmersAlmanac.jpg

So what's the difference between cold and snowy for the OV and TN valley's vs cold and wet over the Great lakes? lol

Aren't these old farmers getting ready to retire? lol lol

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:57 pm If you scroll up above, the regular Farmer's Almanac said "Icy, Flaky" Well how about the kiss of death from the Old Farmer's Almanac?


OldFarmersAlmanac.jpg

So what's the difference between cold and snowy for the OV and TN valley's vs cold and wet over the Great lakes? lol

Aren't these old farmers getting ready to retire? lol lol

No doubt Joe! Always a comical and entertaining read every year. Just part of the pregame to winter process is how I view it.

I get an Old Farmer's almanac and a Blum's one, also, each year for Christmas for of course entertainment and interesting stories i.e.

The Blum's one is published in Winston-Salem, NC.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:18 pm I get an Old Farmer's almanac and a Blum's one, also, each year for Christmas for of course entertainment and interesting stories i.e.

The Blum's one is published in Winston-Salem, NC.

I've never heard of a Blum's one? Is this a different version? I have only heard of the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac, which are two different separate publications.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:24 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:18 pm I get an Old Farmer's almanac and a Blum's one, also, each year for Christmas for of course entertainment and interesting stories i.e.

The Blum's one is published in Winston-Salem, NC.

I've never heard of a Blum's one? Is this a different version? I have only heard of the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac, which are two different separate publications.

Here is what it looks like, Bro. They're sold at most stores, too. Kroger, Walmart i.e. etc.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:24 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:18 pm I get an Old Farmer's almanac and a Blum's one, also, each year for Christmas for of course entertainment and interesting stories i.e.

The Blum's one is published in Winston-Salem, NC.

I've never heard of a Blum's one? Is this a different version? I have only heard of the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac, which are two different separate publications.

Here is what it looks like, Bro. They're sold at most stores, too. Kroger, Walmart i.e. etc.

Ok cool! What is their winter forecast?

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:48 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:24 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:18 pm I get an Old Farmer's almanac and a Blum's one, also, each year for Christmas for of course entertainment and interesting stories i.e.

The Blum's one is published in Winston-Salem, NC.

I've never heard of a Blum's one? Is this a different version? I have only heard of the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac, which are two different separate publications.

Here is what it looks like, Bro. They're sold at most stores, too. Kroger, Walmart i.e. etc.

Ok cool! What is their winter forecast?

I searched and searched for it, Bro, but could never come across it.

August QBO reading is in... still dropping but the rate of the drop has slowed considerably for the August reading. We'll see what the Sept reading says in about a month from now.

May 0.31
June -6.93
July -13.17
August -13.82

EDIT: This isn't really shocking and it's too hard to predict the NAO this far out anyway. We have trouble trying to predict it 2 weeks in advance let alone 3 months.

I did some digging around today and before you read this post entirely, let me explain a few things. First of all, you need to know what the word ACE means in meteorology. If you don't know then please read the definition below from Wikipedia:

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy used by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. The calculation takes a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds every six hours and multiplies it by itself to generate the values. These values are then added together which become a total for a storm and can either be divided by 10,000 to make them more manageable or added to other totals in order to work out a total for a particular group of storms. The calculation was originally created by William Gray and his associates at Colorado State University as the Hurricane Destruction Potential index, which took each hurricane's maximum sustained winds above 65 kn (120 km/h; 75 mph) and multiplied it by itself every six hours. This index was subsequently tweaked by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 2000 to include all tropical cyclones, with winds above 35 kn (65 km/h; 40 mph) and renamed accumulated cyclone energy. The index has since been used by various other agencies to calculate a storm's accumulated cyclone energy, including the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as well as the India Meteorological Department.

The highest ACE calculated for a single storm is 82, for Hurricane/Typhoon Loke in 2006.[1]

So since we have a La Nina coming again this winter, if you set the benchmark for ACE at 150 or higher (which means a very active season with lots of strong tropical systems and long duration, long tracked storms) in a La Nina season, since 1950, you get the following years, in order of highest ACE:

2005, 1995, 2017, 1950, 1998, 2020, 1999, 2010, 1955, 1964.

I then looked up how much snow we got the following winter. So the criteria here being used is ACE of 150 or higher and it has to be a La Nina. Again, these years are since 1950.

Cincinnati snowfall for those winters: (All numbers are for CVG)

2005-2006: 17.5"
1995-1996: 44.6"
2017-2018: 23.8"
1950-1951: 46.3"
1998-1999: 26.4"
2020-2021: 32.0"
1999-2000: 10.8"
2010-2011: 49.5"
1955-1956: 24.5"
1964-1965: 24.0"

AVG Snowfall using those years: 29.94" or approx 30"

As you can see, odds are we get an above normal snow season. 2 years are below avg, 4 years near to slightly above avg, and 4 years well above avg. 8 out of 10 years were near to above avg and only 2 were below. Out of the 2 below avg years only 1 was a clunker. I'd take those odds every time! Of course, much more goes into seasonal forecasting then what this post covers but thought that the numbers were very interesting anyway.

Finally, how is the ACE looking so far for 2021-2022 since this is another La Nina year? Below is a current table broken down by storm for 2021 as well as how much ACE each produced. NOTE: Larry is still going to add more then what is shown here obviously.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic

So, if you add that up, our current ACE index for 2021 is: 61.3 We have a ways to go but we're just getting to the peak of the hurricane season now and Larry will ultimately add quite a bit more to that number in the coming days since he is a long tracker and will have spent probably 5 or 6 days give or take, as a major hurricane. It'll be interesting to see how this season winds up and if we can make it to that 150 mark or not.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:33 pm August QBO reading is in... still dropping but the rate of the drop has slowed considerably for the August reading. We'll see what the Sept reading says in about a month from now.

May 0.31
June -6.93
July -13.17
August -13.82

Hey Les, I saw some QBO forecasts from so.e of the seasonal models a couple days ago and some were in the -upper teens and one was in the -30s for a winter month , yikes. I didn't even know the mods did a 3 or 4 month forecast.

Edit, ok i found it

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:33 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:33 pm August QBO reading is in... still dropping but the rate of the drop has slowed considerably for the August reading. We'll see what the Sept reading says in about a month from now.

May 0.31
June -6.93
July -13.17
August -13.82

Hey Les, I saw some QBO forecasts from so.e of the seasonal models a couple days ago and some were in the -upper teens and one was in the -30s for a winter month , yikes. I didn't even know the mods did a 3 or 4 month forecast.

I didn't know that there were QBO model forecasts either. Hmmm... good to know! Thanks for sharing that, Bgoney! I hope that we are seeing the rate of the drop slowing down. That would be good. Upper negative teens is fine but something below -25 is too much and we don't want that for sure. Would love to see a -QBO avg of -5 to -15 range or something like that.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:45 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:33 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:33 pm August QBO reading is in... still dropping but the rate of the drop has slowed considerably for the August reading. We'll see what the Sept reading says in about a month from now.

May 0.31
June -6.93
July -13.17
August -13.82

Hey Les, I saw some QBO forecasts from so.e of the seasonal models a couple days ago and some were in the -upper teens and one was in the -30s for a winter month , yikes. I didn't even know the mods did a 3 or 4 month forecast.

I didn't know that there were QBO model forecasts either. Hmmm... good to know! Thanks for sharing that, Bgoney! I hope that we are seeing the rate of the drop slowing down. That would be good. Upper negative teens is fine but something below -25 is too much and we don't want that for sure. Would love to see a -QBO avg of -5 to -15 range or something like that.

check my edit