Absolute Vorticity

Met Summer for 2021 kicks off tomorrow. Temps look to start near avg in the upper 70s with rain and storms likely Wed and Thurs. Then we warm into the mid 80s by this weekend which would be about 5 degrees above avg. Not a huge deal honestly. Then can some heat up finally to make Trev happy, or do we cool down again as Bgoney mentioned the possibility of that, by the 10-15th period? I think we will turn pretty stormy by them so we'll see if it's a t-storm and humid type of pattern that keeps us in the 70s and low 80s or is it the mid and upper 80s with the usual PM pop up good luck if you get one storms? I think the first option looks more likely to me with frontal boundaries getting stalled out over the OV.

First of June and not one thunderstorm IMBY for 2021

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:56 am First of June and not one thunderstorm IMBY for 2021

That has been the most surprising thing this spring. I thought the severe season would be above normal and its been so tame. Sometimes to much cold air can hurt chances as we have seen this season. Again we are still in the severe season for about another 45 days though the further you get into July the chances usually go down.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:56 am First of June and not one thunderstorm IMBY for 2021

Wow! Nothing severe here yet but I have had thunder and lightening a couple of times. This is you and Mother Nature right here!

Overnight GFS shows the call nicely of Wed and Thurs being wet. Then we get active next week. Then a cool down by mid month. Not all my call, but rather a good call from all AV Forecasters at this point. The Euro agrees with this Wed / Thurs system this week but keeps the heat and dryness going into next week instead of stormy ala the GFS. Hard to go against the trend and pattern we've been in which is to have bouts of warmth, then get wet, then turn cool for a bit. We keep getting repeated cool attacks so until the GFS is proven wrong with the mid June idea, I cannot deny it. It was right with this current cold spell for this weekend where the Euro originally was warm. I think the upgrade on the GFS is doing it some good. The real test will be with the winter but right now in the spring months, it's done fairly well IMHO.

I’ve had a couple of minor thunderstorms in my hood in 2021, but far from exciting. More like a few rumblers.

Another record breaking cold spell over the weekend for Australia, especially in the south with many Coldest May temps toppled, ho-hum. And another Antarctic outbreak for most of the continent in the near future. Poor Greta must be so confused

U60s to L70s now across the region with a gorgeous afternoon in progress! Happy Memorial Day to all! Yard work time Tuesday then we rain.

Good morning and hope all had a wonderful Memorial Day! We need some rain and looks like between tonight and 8pm Thursday we will see just that. Both the GFS and Euro have a good 1-2" area-wide, however the 12km NAM is showing some I-71 dryness so not sure that is a trend or an outlier.

Good morning all! Going to have to mow after work today with the rain coming. Hopefully we can get an inch that the models have been showing pretty well for a while now. This is thru Thursday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:40 am Good morning all! Going to have to mow after work today with the rain coming. Hopefully we can get an inch that the models have been showing pretty well for a while now. This is thru Thursday.

Good Morning and I finally believe the models with the 1-2 inch forecast of rainfall. The models especially the Euro has been terrible with rainfall amount prediction this year. I believe the Euro is too warm in the extended and agreeing more with the gfs as expecting stormy weather to continue next week. Somebody over the next few days can get over 2 inches and if you are in the key area from sw to ne where the rainfall is heaviest. Looks like both Wednesday and Thursday morning between 4a-10a amounts can be nice as temps and dews are close along with the overnight jet picking up this time of year.

Glad to see the 12z NAM back on board with the rainfall later tonight and especially tomorrow. Showing 1-1.5" area wide with locally higher totals through 8pm tomorrow with more to follow.

12z NAM with about 1.90" QPF at CVG through 7am Thursday.

12z GFS Ensemble has a general 1-2" across much of AV land through Thursday.

Partly to mostly cloudy today but cool with dew points only near 50. Those dew points should rise this evening and with this set up even dew points in the mid 50's should be enough to give us rainfall. Overnight looks wet into the early part of Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon we will need to watch and see if we getting any kind of sun which could help in setting off some severe weather though it looks sparse but most always include in a forecast. Thursday may have a better chance of severe weather if we get closer to the cold front but once again how much will overnight rains keep us rather calm is still a big question. So all in all 1-2 inches looks like a good call and expecting heaviest amounts south and east.

12z Euro ENS also has a nice 1-2" swath through AV country,

It is the Memorial Golf tourney this week. I am not surprised by this rain. Actually need it, seeing some brown from where folks have not raised their mower decks yet.

Day 2 Wednesday ...

Looks like forecast-wise a washout for the 3rd game in the series between the Redlegs and Phillies on Wed, but we all could use some more liquid gold refreshment, so will take Ma Nature's offering up of rainfall over a ballgame.

Could have a possible delay at some point for tonight's 7:10 one.

Currently 73 here in G'ville.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ANGELIKA!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!

A very busy day today so thanks to all for the coverage. Appreciate it. Got the grass cut at least so ready to receive some rain. 76 in my hood today, very pleasant.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:04 pm HAPPY BIRTHDAY ANGELIKA!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!

Thank you Eric!

Happy belated Birthday, Ang! Also, a Happy Birthday today to another forum member, Bgoney! Hope you both are able to enjoy it.

Weather wise, a wet morning in progress, which we figured was going to happen. Nothing very heavy going on but some steady rainfall is likely for a good chunk of the morning until at least midday. On and off POPS continue thru Thursday then we turn up the temps into the mid to perhaps upper 80s upper 80s! Dry weather looks good for Friday to perhaps Monday of next week, before POPS return to the forecast.

Happy Birthday to Angela and Bgoney! Love to see this rain across the area this morning. As you mentioned, Les, nothing too heavy currently. Models still saying 1-2" between now and Thursday so good luck to all!!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:48 am Happy Birthday to Angela and Bgoney! Love to see this rain across the area this morning. As you mentioned, Les, nothing too heavy currently. Models still saying 1-2" between now and Thursday so good luck to all!!

Yes Happy Birthday to Bgoney and Angela. Hope that this BD is the best ever. Back to the weather it really is a nice rainfall as its light to maybe moderate at times but plenty will soak in. I thought the system may push a little further north but again 1-2 should be good before it ends late Thursday.