Absolute Vorticity

Talk Met Spring here and long range as March is almost ready to begin next week!

As we kick off March, we will be dry Monday and Tues of next week with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s. We will rebound and get temps in the 50s for the rest of next week. A minor system Tues night may spark a rain or snow shower but amounts of any precip type are light and this doesn't look to be a big deal. A more significant chance for precip maybe in the offing towards Friday and next weekend but some models keep us dry with high pressure over the Great Lakes. That helps to keep the storm further to the south. On some model runs we get rain though as the system tracks further to the north.

Kind of cool to see me only 26 posts behind Les. Never thought that would happen!

snowbo wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:47 am Kind of cool to see me only 26 posts behind Les. Never thought that would happen!

Get busy posting, or get busy dying! The AV Redemption

Models continue to show more blocking end of next week / next weekend so a better shot of cold air. Right now it's looking like rain stays to our south then the cold air gets involved and perhaps an East Coast event for Charles? Hope Charles can find us again. I don't have any contact info for him.

NAM continues to advertise an upper level low for Tues night. Cold enough for a pocket of snow? We'll see.

The above graphic is likely going to change in the coming days for flooding issues along the Ohio. Monitor the OH River Forecast Center's website for the latest info there. Looks like it is forecast to crest just below the 52 foot flood stage at Cincinnati around 3/4 from this morning's update. It will likely go up in my opinion.

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/

What to expect in March. Probably the biggest month in terms of changes. Stormy looks like a sure bet though that does not always mean severe weather. Still have cold air in northern and also southern areas of central Canada. Some of that air is headed south and east but how much of that will we see. This time of year this is common and most of the time you will see a cold outbreak in the northeastern USA. That looks to be the case later this week. So can we get snow from this and the answer is maybe. Usually a few ways to get snow in March. First is a powerhouse storm which at the moment is not on the playing field. Second is a strong upper low disconnected from the jet stream that produces its own cold air but you must be in a perfect position for that to happen but it can deliver big snows. The third is having warm air flowing on top of recent cold air but must be with fresh cold air as it warms up pretty fast in March. Next weekend has a chance and models will be late to the game as usual. So the northeast has a really great shot at snows next weekend and we stand a fighting chance as well though the further north and east the better shot. Will watch this over the next few days.

The pattern looks avg and much quieter next week. Still waiting to see if we get an upper level system Tues night or not. Model disagreement there. Then, as you alluded to Tim, a colder pattern centered over the Lakes and NE. We're on the southern end of the cooler airmass but have a chance if a wave is timed perfectly at night. Then as we get towards the period after the 10th, more stormier for sure and chances for t-storms goes up.

The AO, NAO and PNA both briefly change phases for a short time around late next week into next weekend then it is probably on to spring. So we have one last chance to see if something wintry can develop. I favor the Lakes and NE regions for now like Charles, to have the best chance. We'll see. Not seeing a big signal right now for the OV. More of an Apps Event for snow maybe into the northern mid Atlantic then the low reforms for an East Coast possibility is what I am thinking.

The MJO also shows signs of waking up going into Phase 8 then 1, 2 after mid March. Phase 8 is not particularly cold in March, but 1 and 2 are. Can we see something after mid MArch and I am wrong with the idea of spring is here pretty much minus much lower chances for snow? Anybody think we get one last hurrah or is spring truly here?

MJO Models:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Kyle MacRitchie shows this:

Looking like a mainly dry week to start March which is good so we can dry out and keep an eye on the river levels.

Clouds will give way to some sunshine later on with highs in the 45 to 50 degree range. It'll be a breezy day too with NW winds gusting over 20 mph. Winds will diminish tonight with lows in the 20s by tomorrow morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:36 pm Anybody think we get one last hurrah or is spring truly here?

Hey Les! March is always a crazy month around here with the battle of the airmasses. I definitely think we could see one last hurrah in here....won't be like that epic 3 weeks in February, but could see at least one more shot of snow before the Spring warmth wins the battle and we can start talking about thunderstorms!

Good Morning and looks like a quiet week for the most part. Saw Bowling Green,Ky got 5.11 inches of rainfall. Quite the event and once again I believe models had a hard time with once again. Hopefully the rather quiet weather this week will help in keeping flooding down somewhat. Will comment later today concerning the first week of March.

My mom sent me this picture from Huntington, WV area.

Folks were just starting to recover from the recent ice storm, and now this!

MJSun,

As promised my first post ever since I began following the forum after being with Rich A. since running into him at the dentist many years ago. I owe you for directing me here in 2011.

Great whitewater canoeing weather!! Needs those rains and snow melt to keep White Oak creek running to those Class III levels. Thanks to everyone that makes this work!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:27 pm The pattern looks avg and much quieter next week. Still waiting to see if we get an upper level system Tues night or not. Model disagreement there. Then, as you alluded to Tim, a colder pattern centered over the Lakes and NE. We're on the southern end of the cooler airmass but have a chance if a wave is timed perfectly at night. Then as we get towards the period after the 10th, more stormier for sure and chances for t-storms goes up.

Pretty much agree with everything, first week of March fairly quiet and near average temps. Expect to see Temps gradually climb following week and around the 12/13th or so 70s for Temps. Not sure how long the warm spell lasts though

Looks like the La Nina will continue to have some influence on our spring time pattern which should raise the stakes for Severe wx during the March - May period. We'll have to see if the Western US trough gets going for the SE ridge to pop up to bring in the warmth and moisture for the OV. This week is a good dry out and recover week across the region.

I'll be outside the next 2 weekends for soccer tournaments, so this upcoming pattern is very much welcomed!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:56 am The above graphic is likely going to change in the coming days for flooding issues along the Ohio. Monitor the OH River Forecast Center's website for the latest info there. Looks like it is forecast to crest just below the 52 foot flood stage at Cincinnati around 3/4 from this morning's update. It will likely go up in my opinion.

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/

It already has - Crest Wednesday near 54.5' flooding most of Yeatman's Cove and Sawyer Point. This was accompanied by an Ohio River Flooding Warning this morning.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:39 am My mom sent me this picture from Huntington, WV area.

Folks were just starting to recover from the recent ice storm, and now this!


WV_Flood.jpeg

WOW. Sad to see this kind of thing.

I hope everybody is enjoying the updates being made to our forum! Check the Forum Update section of the forum for the latest changes and updates that have been made!

Highs in the 40s / 50s and lows in the 20s / 30s is the ongoing forecast for the next week and change. It'll give everybody time to reboot and reset. Get the yard ready for the grass growing season, etc.

After 3/10 we look to get more active again. Please continue to visit the forum, post, and comment on anything even in slow weather times. We have the Off Topics section too for non-weather related things. :grin: