Absolute Vorticity

May looks to begin mild and wet on Thurs / Fri of next week before we cool down and potentially get a cut off low around May 7th (give or take). Cooler then avg temps appear very possible in the first half of the month. I do not see frost at this time. Lows around 40 to the low 40s yes. Even if a rural location gets to 38 or 39 it should be ok. I don't see frost formation occurring is basically what I'm saying.

My view for the second half of the month is to be much warmer with bouts of strong to severe storms from time to time. Let's also keep an eye on La Nina to see if its return marks a warmer and drier summer then you'd otherwise expect.

Normals for first 10 days of May

I hope I don't eat my words but I am seeing some 30s trying to show up in that 5/3 thru 5/5 window at night. Next weekend's shot of cool air basically. If we can get past that, we are good to go for planting. I thought that we would stay in the 40s originally, but I am taking a small pause for concern here. Rural areas of course would be most at risk versus city centers. We'll see. Hope my new bean plants will make it. They will be popping up next week.

So far in the extended May looks rather busy. Several shots of rain possible and a normal back and forth with temps. Hopefully in June the rain continues but if La Nina does grab hold once again we can easily flip to a drier period. Just to early though on the La Nina talk and maybe by the end of May we have a better handle.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Apr 26, 2025 10:05 am So far in the extended May looks rather busy. Several shots of rain possible and a normal back and forth with temps. Hopefully in June the rain continues but if La Nina does grab hold once again we can easily flip to a drier period. Just to early though on the La Nina talk and maybe by the end of May we have a better handle.

I am going cold neutral right now but an official La Nina certainly isn't out of the question either as the year wears on. Def worth watching. Hope we don't get hot and dry this summer. Like BG said a few days ago in one of his videos, the heat dome being over the Plains would give us MCS's which is good to keep things green in the summer from a rainfall perspective.

Good morning! Rain and storm chances return though tonight and esp on Thurs. May is still looking to start off wet. 50 / 50 chances Fri and Sat then we are dry for Sunday on into next week. Cool on Sat in the 50s Sat, 60s Sun (Cool Sun morning 40 to 45) but early next week looks great!

Looking ahead.... a good chunk of next week looks to be dry and pleasant. Might be a good time to get those crops and flowers in!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:55 am Looking ahead.... a good chunk of next week looks to be dry and pleasant. Might be a good time to get those crops and flowers in!

Hey Les, question...do you know what model the Iphone and other social media apps use for their forecasts? I've noticed on my Iphone recently that their forecast from Sunday through next Tuesday has clouds and a good chance of rain and much cooler than some of the other US and foreign models out there. Just weird or just out of touch?

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:55 am Looking ahead.... a good chunk of next week looks to be dry and pleasant. Might be a good time to get those crops and flowers in!

Hey Les, question...do you know what model the Iphone and other social media apps use for their forecasts? I've noticed on my Iphone recently that their forecast from Sunday through next Tuesday has clouds and a good chance of rain and much cooler than some of the other US and foreign models out there. Just weird or just out of touch?

I have no idea what model phone apps use. However, some of the models are showing a cut off low scenario which would make my above statement completely wrong and we'd have rain chances all weekend long thru at least Tues of next week. See Brain's video there. Unfortunately, if these trends are right, we'll have blocking and a slow moving weather pattern.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:38 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:55 am Looking ahead.... a good chunk of next week looks to be dry and pleasant. Might be a good time to get those crops and flowers in!

Hey Les, question...do you know what model the Iphone and other social media apps use for their forecasts? I've noticed on my Iphone recently that their forecast from Sunday through next Tuesday has clouds and a good chance of rain and much cooler than some of the other US and foreign models out there. Just weird or just out of touch?

I have no idea what model phone apps use. However, some of the models are showing a cut off low scenario which would make my above statement completely wrong and we'd have rain chances all weekend long thru at least Tues of next week. See Brain's video there. Unfortunately, if these trends are right, we'll have blocking and a slow moving weather pattern.

Yuck, thanks for your thoughts!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:38 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:55 am Looking ahead.... a good chunk of next week looks to be dry and pleasant. Might be a good time to get those crops and flowers in!

Hey Les, question...do you know what model the Iphone and other social media apps use for their forecasts? I've noticed on my Iphone recently that their forecast from Sunday through next Tuesday has clouds and a good chance of rain and much cooler than some of the other US and foreign models out there. Just weird or just out of touch?

I have no idea what model phone apps use. However, some of the models are showing a cut off low scenario which would make my above statement completely wrong and we'd have rain chances all weekend long thru at least Tues of next week. See Brain's video there. Unfortunately, if these trends are right, we'll have blocking and a slow moving weather pattern.

Yuck, thanks for your thoughts!

I'm not too thrilled about it either. I have outdoor plans too this weekend. The 12Z GFS moves the low far enough away before it cuts off that we're fine. We have a couple of days to figure it out but the trends aren't good unfortunately. GEFS does cut it off. IMO a major forecast adjustment is potentially coming.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:55 am Looking ahead.... a good chunk of next week looks to be dry and pleasant. Might be a good time to get those crops and flowers in!

Hey Les, question...do you know what model the Iphone and other social media apps use for their forecasts? I've noticed on my Iphone recently that their forecast from Sunday through next Tuesday has clouds and a good chance of rain and much cooler than some of the other US and foreign models out there. Just weird or just out of touch?

Apparently it’s their own branded app called Apple Weather—it appears that they bought Dark Sky in 2020 and rebranded it.

SPC has us under a slight risk for severe wx now for Thursday. Heads up....


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 1:23 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 30, 2025 7:55 am Looking ahead.... a good chunk of next week looks to be dry and pleasant. Might be a good time to get those crops and flowers in!

Hey Les, question...do you know what model the Iphone and other social media apps use for their forecasts? I've noticed on my Iphone recently that their forecast from Sunday through next Tuesday has clouds and a good chance of rain and much cooler than some of the other US and foreign models out there. Just weird or just out of touch?

Apparently it’s their own branded app called Apple Weather—it appears that they bought Dark Sky in 2020 and rebranded it.

Thanks Leslie, their 10-day forecast changes a lot from time to time.

Ugh... 12Z Euro has the cut off low stuck smack dab on top of us thru Tues and for our far East into Wed of next week.

I totally despise those cut off low scenarios e.g. That kind of set up wouldn't bode well for the weekend Reds hosting the Nats series e.g. either.

Good Morning and a 1/3 of the year is in the books and here is how we stand. Temperature almost dead even for the year and of course precip is well above normal. We should be adding to the rain totals over the next several days as well.

The upper low that looks to get in here on Saturday. What does this mean for us locally? These lows are lost because they become detached from the jet stream and have a mind of their own.How long will this low stay around what I have seen in the past is you see the models finally catch on like they have this time and at first it throws out a forecast that it hangs around a day or so. Then usually the models extend out for several days. Normally though its somewhere in between as the final outcome. Stating that I can see the upper system hanging around until Monday before either moving far enough east or really just losing most of its energy and yes rain.

How much rain over the next 5 days and again this is tricky as we still need to get through the next 2 days and the chances for thunderstorms with heavy rain is possible. By Saturday we get into the upper low part of the forecast and usually than means lighter rains but also you can have longer periods where its raining. Normally severe weather is not a problem with cut off lows except its usually rather cold above us and if you happen to get a period of sun you can get an area that gets into some hail though usually small size.

The range for rainfall and at this moment I am going 1-3 inches and going a little higher because the next 2 days could no doubt bring us some periods of heavy rains. Could this total go higher and maybe but probably more isolated in nature.

Good morning and welcome to the month of May! This is usually our last month for good rains and decent temps before the true dryness and heat of summer arrives. In May, we get our crops in and our flowers / plants.... we bet on horses, celebrate a couple of Holidays and welcome in summer! Along with that, Mother Nature continues to look active. Today will be another one of those slight risk severe wx days for this afternoon and evening. CVG did pick up 0.19" last night from those scattered warm front cells.

A quick .40” early this morning

Once we are done with the severe wx then as Tim alluded too, it is all about the cut off low. I am going with showers and storms in the forecast, some can be strong to severe for Friday, then just general showers for Sat thru at least Tues, if not Wed of next week before that thing finally clears the area IMO. Look for little sun and cool and damp weather for a while I'm afraid. Summer should come though for the second half of May but along with that will come active weather also.

Average and some numbers for May. Graphic thanks to the Gummer at Local 12:

I'm watching a line of non-severe storms approaching from the West. The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A broad southwesterly flow exists over the region with with a
shortwave lifting northeast from the Mid MS Valley thru the Great
Lakes today. Associated surface low pressure over northern ILN to
track northeast and deepen as it lifts into the Great Lakes.

ILN/s area is in the warm sector with a linear convective element
developing at mid morning across southern and central Indiana.
Latest visible satellite imagery show some breaks in clouds over
ahead of this feature. Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values responding to
around 1000 J/KG ahead of this feature. HREF MUCAPE values max out
between 1500-1750 J/Kg generally along and southeast of I-71 - which
corresponds to the best areal location for severe weather today.

Wind shear profiles show effective bulk shear values near 30 kts,
which would help promote organization. Wind profiles are unidirectional
with flow out of the southwest. The primary severe weather threat is
damaging straight line winds, with hail being a secondary threat.
Timing of severe potential looks to begin by noon in the west and
then track east across the area diminishing around 5 pm.

Pressure gradient increases and forecast soundings show a potential
momentum transfer around 30 kts. This will result in southwest winds
gusting up to 35 mph during the afternoon.

High temperatures today to range from the mid 70s northwest to the
lower 80s southeast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 7:15 am Once we are done with the severe wx then as Tim alluded too, it is all about the cut off low. I am going with showers and storms in the forecast, some can be strong to severe for Friday, then just general showers for Sat thru at least Tues, if not Wed of next week before that thing finally clears the area IMO. Look for little sun and cool and damp weather for a while I'm afraid. Summer should come though for the second half of May but along with that will come active weather also.

Prayerfully a dry Memorial Day weekend this year as my sister and niece will be coming up from NC during that time period.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 12:32 am I totally despise those cut off low scenarios e.g. That kind of set up wouldn't bode well for the weekend Reds hosting the Nats series e.g. either.

Yea, Eric. Not good for the Redbirds. My band is scheduled to play in the Fanzone on Sat. Not sure that's gonna happen now! lol