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January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 5:47 pm
by tron777
It is time to get a thread started since we are dealing with a Day 5/6 threat. Euro continues to hammer the area with the CMC, ICON and EPS lending its support. GFS is further south and weaker with the UKIE ridiculously north. Timing ranges anywhere from Sunday afternoon to wee hours of Sunday morning, mainly a Monday event as it stands right now. Duration: Roughly could be 12 to 20 hours of snowfall depending on storm evolution, strength, and track and what model you currently choose.
WPC's graphic, which CB posted on his FB Page just now highlights our area for 1/5 in the heavy snow zone.
NOAA.jpg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 5:51 pm
by tpweather
Great Les and since you started the thread I decided to take a look at the afternoon models.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 5:54 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 5:51 pm
Great Les and since you started the thread I decided to take a look at the afternoon models.
I hope it's not too early. I just couldn't help myself.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 5:55 pm
by tron777
Let the Media Hype begin!
WAVE3.jpg
CB.jpg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 5:57 pm
by tron777
18Z GEFS Mean has 4" for the region. Gotta like that!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:06 pm
by tron777
From the 12Z Euro EPS, like what BG posts for LOU in his blog videos. I found one posted on American Wx lol This is for Lunken Airport.
EPS LUK.png
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:06 pm
by tpweather
Les you made a wonderful post earlier from a question I had about the strength of the storm and you mentioned still fine until it gets over the mountains and then heads out to sea. I agree with this 100p/c and also glad to see the gfs has moved further north this past run.
Always nothing is certain but a storm seems very likely even this far out and the pattern along with the models back this up. All types of precip should occur and maybe some thundershowers to the south but don't see a strong signal but do see a strong signal for a decent amount of GOM moisture heading northward.
Locally we seem to be in a decent spot for at least snow on the front and back end of the system and what happens in the middle of the storm is key into getting a big snow or a decent snow but other types of precip involved. Somewhere there is going to be some frz/rain and still believe that is along either side of the mountains but we know with the warm front that will be with this storm can sometimes push warmer air over the top much further north than models show. Good item imo is cold air on the back side is really cold and this war could be won by that colder air and keep us from getting the ice part of the storm.
Temps are plenty cold enough ahead of the storm so roads should be below 32 for all of the storm imo. After the storm and how cold we get will be determined by how much snow is on the ground. Can we get below zero next week and no doubt that is possible and though the cold next week is cold another shot the following week may be colder due to the PV.
Have not mentioned sleet and at this point not seeing a great signal for that however if the storm gets stronger than what I see then we will need to watch out for that and sleet always a snow killer as we know around here.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:09 pm
by tpweather
Les I am not sure we had any hype last season after Christmas so let the hype begin lol.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:13 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:09 pm
Les I am not sure we had any hype last season after Christmas so let the hype begin lol.
The overall pattern is going to be fantastic for cold and snow lovers and long lasting too IMHO. We may finally see one of those old fashioned winters, or at least a period of it coming up!
Analogs for the next few weeks are 1985, 1977, 2009 all cold and snowy winters!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:22 pm
by tpweather
I agree Les and love what the CMC shows but not so much on exactly where the heaviest snow falls but it tends to keep the snow totals on more of an west to east progression. That is sort of how I see this storm playing out. Again the CMC shows the heaviest over us with 14 inches and of course lower totals north and south. My point is I like how the model is painting a picture of a decent system but is rather slow moving and some higher totals possible. At the end of the day we may end up with 4 inches and the higher totals toward Louisville or it may be higher towards Indy. Totals are just fools gold at the moment but it can paint a picture of how the storm progresses.
The pattern is ripe and yes sometimes a great pattern can lead to a bummer in the snow equation but also it can lead to some of the best winter weather we have seen in years and especially January. Even the great winters of 76-77 and 77-78 had milder periods and we do not live in a place that is going to have 3 months of snow.
Btw saw a huge snowstorm in Italy over Christmas and why does this matter and it sort of shows that some lower latitudes are getting into the action and though my guess much of that in the mountains it tells me colder air is dislodging from the polar regions and if we can just keep it away from Asia for the next several weeks we should be just fine.
I know we have folks on here that make part of their living off cleaning streets,parking lots,etc and hopefully this will be a good year for them.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:24 pm
by tron777
Yeah... for you plow guys on our forum, 2025 IMO maybe off to a good start! We'll see how things look in the coming days. This thing is still over 4,000 miles away from us out over the Pacific Ocean.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:28 pm
by tpweather
Okay heading upstairs to watch something with my lovely wife and still not sure why she has stayed with me all these years but hopefully a light bulb never goes off in her head. Will be back early in the morning and want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and to our leader Les lets hope 2025 brings a Super Bowl Winner.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:40 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 6:28 pm
Okay heading upstairs to watch something with my lovely wife and still not sure why she has stayed with me all these years but hopefully a light bulb never goes off in her head. Will be back early in the morning and want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and to our leader Les lets hope 2025 brings a Super Bowl Winner.
Thanks Tim! Happy New Year!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 7:35 pm
by tron777
18Z Euro:
18ZEuro.png
Big reduction in precip amounts but those higher end Euro totals we were seeing were likely overdone. Still a respectable storm.
Code: Select all
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.8 -6.9 1024 72 101 0.07 555 537
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.3 -4.9 1018 91 100 0.42 553 539
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.7 -6.6 1014 89 83 0.17 545 534
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.2 -8.7 1014 79 96 0.01 539 528
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.9 -8.8 1020 78 16 0.01 542 527
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 7:37 pm
by tron777
A friendly reminder on how to properly track winter storms!
Winter Storm Tracking.jpg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 7:44 pm
by tron777
18Z EPS Mean. Snow map is at a 10:1 ratio. This is up by 1" versus 12Z's run.
18Z EPS.png
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 9:35 pm
by BookNerdCarp
Will we see higher ratios than 10:1
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:10 pm
by MJSun
Please please let this happen - I'd love for a good storm.
Happy New Year everyone!!!!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:14 pm
by MJSun
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 7:37 pm
A friendly reminder on how to properly track winter storms!
Winter Storm Tracking.jpg
Lol - I'd like to edit #8:
"Verification: 3 inches. Of Cold Rain. Area 20 miles north gets 3 feet of snow. Bang head against wall"
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:40 pm
by mikeyp
Gfs and Canadian look good. Canadian has a some sleet mixing in at a time but both models give us a hefty amount of 6+
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:56 pm
by Trentonwx06
mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:40 pm
Gfs and Canadian look good. Canadian has a some sleet mixing in at a time but both models give us a hefty amount of 6+
Can add the UK to this as well, really nice agreement bringing in the New Year! See what Euro says.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2025 12:57 am
by fyrfyter
00z Euro - gives us almost 24 hours of snowfall and the amounts are back up again.
IMG_0893.jpeg
IMG_0892.jpeg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2025 1:16 am
by fyrfyter
0z EPS is up to 5.7”
IMG_0894.jpeg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2025 1:32 am
by airwolf76
nice to see this potential for you guys. looks so promising still 4/5 days out so who knows but am so happy for you guys to get a snowstorm since I know how rare they can be. i am not even jealous since i will be happy to have no snow the first week of the month since i have some things i want t o get done but i would not mind to see something at some point later on in the month. my early guess is its going to end up cold and dry with a clipper type snow potential but i am not expecting to see any big dawgs anytime soon.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2025 6:33 am
by tron777
Good morning all and as stated... the overnight models are starting to narrow the goal posts. You have to like what you see! For the best snows, the mixing line has to be close you know so it's a high risk, high reward set up as has been previously mentioned.
Code: Select all
CVG - 0Z GFS
MON 06Z 06-JAN -3.2 -4.6 1023 43 97 0.01 559 541
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.1 -2.8 1014 90 98 0.40 553 542
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.4 -0.9 1007 96 96 0.38 544 538
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.7 -3.4 1007 96 90 0.26 542 536
TUE 06Z 07-JAN -4.2 -9.0 1012 96 97 0.04 540 531
TUE 12Z 07-JAN -6.5 -9.3 1017 95 85 0.02 541 528
CVG - 6Z GFS
MON 00Z 06-JAN -2.5 -5.7 1025 48 97 0.07 558 538
MON 06Z 06-JAN -4.0 -3.8 1019 78 96 0.10 555 540
MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.9 -2.4 1012 95 99 0.22 550 540
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.4 -2.6 1009 95 100 0.21 543 536
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.6 -9.0 1013 95 97 0.06 541 531
TUE 06Z 07-JAN -5.8 -10.3 1018 92 81 0.02 543 528
CVG - 0Z Euro
SUN 12Z 05-JAN -4.9 -7.8 1026 47 100 0.01 556 535
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.9 -5.9 1022 77 100 0.11 555 538
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.6 -4.6 1015 90 100 0.46 551 540
MON 06Z 06-JAN -6.1 -6.7 1011 87 98 0.23 542 534
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.9 -10.0 1017 84 96 0.10 539 526
CVG - 6Z Euro
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.6 -4.5 1022 71 100 0.08 556 539
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.2 -3.9 1016 91 100 0.50 553 540
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.5 -5.3 1011 88 84 0.22 545 536
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.8 -9.2 1012 85 99 0.03 539 529
MON 18Z 06-JAN -5.2 -10.8 1018 79 31 0.02 539 525