Absolute Vorticity

The last month of Met. Fall is upon us. We look to start Nov on a mild note. Wet or not remains to be seen. The tropics may have a trick or two up its sleeve early on. We continue to match the MJO ad the Pacific for changes. Right now, the -PDO rules. Discuss!

First weeks precip and amounts are still to early to get a handle on but the temp’s aren’t, above normal with plenty of temps in the low to mid 70s at times

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 24, 2024 1:11 pm First weeks precip and amounts are still to early to get a handle on but the temp’s aren’t, above normal with plenty of temps in the low to mid 70s at times

Totally agree. If the tropical system can form as the GFS has been showing that we should get a shot of cooler air behind it. Then I think we'd warm up again after that. If we do see a change to cooler I am still going with the idea of mid to late month and not before then. Hopefully we can at last get some rainy systems going even if it does remain mild.

Normals(temps) for November (cvg) . Highs quickly drop into the upper fifties and upper 30s for lows

Wow @ the normal snowfall. It used to be 1.3" for November, and now down to 0.8" using the newer climate normals. I suspect December is down too but Jan - Mar I think has to be up, Our snowfall avg at CVG has actually gone up an inch or two in the last 10 years for the seasonal avg.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 6:05 am Wow @ the normal snowfall. It used to be 1.3" for November, and now down to 0.8" using the newer climate normals. I suspect December is down too but Jan - Mar I think has to be up, Our snowfall avg at CVG has actually gone up an inch or two in the last 10 years for the seasonal avg.

lol, I don’t have the numbers for MBY, but I can guarantee you my seasonal snowfall has gone down (aka, SE crew)

Five day average temp anomalies for beginnings of November. Warmer to closer to normal (10-15 day outlook). Still no signs of anomalis cold air mass building in Canada/Arctic during this particular span

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 6:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 6:05 am Wow @ the normal snowfall. It used to be 1.3" for November, and now down to 0.8" using the newer climate normals. I suspect December is down too but Jan - Mar I think has to be up, Our snowfall avg at CVG has actually gone up an inch or two in the last 10 years for the seasonal avg.

lol, I don’t have the numbers for MBY, but I can guarantee you my seasonal snowfall has gone down (aka, SE crew)

Absolutely! Our SE Crew Zone has been shafted more often then not. I mean it hasn't been great for most of us, the last 3 or 4 winters as a whole, but it has definitely been downright miserable for your hood (and others in the SE portion of the forecast area).

GFS continues to want to delay beneficial rains for the OV the first week, keeping the boundary in the central US. I hope this is not the case

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 1:13 pm GFS continues to want to delay beneficial rains for the OV the first week, keeping the boundary in the central US. I hope this is not the case

I think the tropics keep messing with the model output. We'll have to wait and see if something develops there. On models where there is no tropical development, cold front blast thru the area with ease.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 1:35 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 1:13 pm GFS continues to want to delay beneficial rains for the OV the first week, keeping the boundary in the central US. I hope this is not the case

I think the tropics keep messing with the model output. We'll have to wait and see if something develops there. On models where there is no tropical development, cold front blast thru the area with ease.

Looks like it has backed off the FL hurricane idea. Still something tropical developing near Cuba/ Caribbean . Seems like EU has a wave of something in that vicinity timing being different but understandable this far out

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 1:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 1:35 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 25, 2024 1:13 pm GFS continues to want to delay beneficial rains for the OV the first week, keeping the boundary in the central US. I hope this is not the case

I think the tropics keep messing with the model output. We'll have to wait and see if something develops there. On models where there is no tropical development, cold front blast thru the area with ease.

Looks like it has backed off the FL hurricane idea. Still something tropical developing near Cuba/ Caribbean . Seems like EU has a wave of something in that vicinity timing being different but understandable this far out

I noticed that too. That is a good thing if the GFS backing off of the FL idea is an actual trend. I suppose we'll have to wait another week to see how this shakes out.

Good morning all! November still looks to begin on the mild side with well above normal temps along with dry conditions. We are waiting to see if something in the tropics can fire up as that will impact our next trough that is forecast to move into the region around Election Day or maybe the 6th. Current GFS runs continue to show something firing up in the tropics but the trough ends up kicking it out to sea so no impacts tropically speaking to the CONUS if this is correct. It is just too early to know for sure. We may not even see anything organize in the Caribbean for that matter. Tis is all model speculation at this point.

The Operational Euro brings the front is on the 3rd and stalls it out as several low pressures ride along it to give us some decent, and much needed rainfall. It continues to not show any tropical development. The Euro AI is a blend of the GFS and Euro ideas. IT has the slower moving front like the Euro but also has the GFS idea of a tropical system getting kicked out to sea.

Looking beyond this period... the GEFS has brief troughing but then we see ridging over the Rockies eventually working eastward with a vert fast and strong Pacific jet. The EPS meanwhile retrogrades the ridge over the West so we see more troughing here over the Eastern US so the trough around or just after Election Day would stick around a bit longer for a longer bout of cooler temps.

My thoughts are this... and I've said this already... But I think the tropics are messing with the models. If we see development, then everything will be slowed down and we will stay milder longer. If no tropical action, then we could see something like the Euro / EPS solutions where we could see a 5 day cool down in association with that stronger trough. We'll see have to wait and see.

Still looks to me like the trend for the OV is to kick the beneficial rains down the road to a later date instead of the first few days of the month (Les’s tropical reasons) . We’ll see some shower activity but the good heavy amounts still holding back to our west . Above normal temps remain the first week as Les mentioned

Getting to that time of year the PV comes into play, so I’ll post these here instead of the winter thread . Right on que, the Polar Vortex is ramping up after a slow start and near record territory

I think I'll go ahead and unpin the winter thoughts thread since it is almost November and our thoughts will turn more and more to the PV, MJO, La Nina, etc etc as time goes on.

For now... Nov is starting off dry and mild. We should get a front around the 5/6th and a cool shot of air behind it may indeed occur. But it won't be sustainable and I believe we will warm up again. I still believe that we will see a tropical system but as of now, that looks to stay away from the CONUS, which is good. I agree with you Bgoney with regards to precip being below avg. for the next few weeks. The very positive AO tells us that the PV is strengthening so that keeps the cold air bottled up as we all know. As far as the MJO goes, I am seeing trends that the wave is going to be getting weaker and while we may make it into Phase 8, it will not go further and it should die out in the neutral circle. I was afraid this might be a possibility. The very -PDO is continuing to destroy our hopes and dreams of cold and snow. Unless that PDO weakens I think the idea of milder then avg with below normal snowfall is good.

You can clearly see the effects of the -PDO on the overall pattern per the below animations of the 0Z GEFS and EPS. They go from 11/1 until the end of the run. You can see the brief break as the ridge retrogrades to the Western Us for a few days but then the Bering Sea low and strong Pacific Jet takes back over with much of the country being taken over by strong ridging. A very -PDO dominated pattern with a very positive, EPO, AO, and NAO for that matter, Glad it is early November and not December. The question remains... how long does this pattern continue? My thoughts have always been for at least thru mid November with a better looking pattern for winter lovers taking over later in the month and on into December. However, this is a very stubborn pattern and it's going to be tough to break. I was hoping the MJO would help this time, but as I stated above, it isn't looking good.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:15 am I think I'll go ahead and unpin the winter thoughts thread since it is almost November and our thoughts will turn more and more to the PV, MJO, La Nina, etc etc as time goes on.

For now... Nov is starting off dry and mild. We should get a front around the 5/6th and a cool shot of air behind it may indeed occur. But it won't be sustainable and I believe we will warm up again. I still believe that we will see a tropical system but as of now, that looks to stay away from the CONUS, which is good. I agree with you Bgoney with regards to precip being below avg. for the next few weeks. The very positive AO tells us that the PV is strengthening so that keeps the cold air bottled up as we all know. As far as the MJO goes, I am seeing trends that the wave is going to be getting weaker and while we may make it into Phase 8, it will not go further and it should die out in the neutral circle. I was afraid this might be a possibility. The very -PDO is continuing to destroy our hopes and dreams of cold and snow. Unless that PDO weakens I think the idea of milder then avg with below normal snowfall is good.

Those animations could have taken from any period since mid summer or even earlier. Pattern of persistence . We’ve been saying the MJO needs to get to 8/1 with strength to See the trough move more into the OV and bring a persistent wetter period. With the MJO finally getting into the Pacific (6/7) we can see how that charges the pac jet into the NW and the eventual trough into the central US

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:15 am I think I'll go ahead and unpin the winter thoughts thread since it is almost November and our thoughts will turn more and more to the PV, MJO, La Nina, etc etc as time goes on.

For now... Nov is starting off dry and mild. We should get a front around the 5/6th and a cool shot of air behind it may indeed occur. But it won't be sustainable and I believe we will warm up again. I still believe that we will see a tropical system but as of now, that looks to stay away from the CONUS, which is good. I agree with you Bgoney with regards to precip being below avg. for the next few weeks. The very positive AO tells us that the PV is strengthening so that keeps the cold air bottled up as we all know. As far as the MJO goes, I am seeing trends that the wave is going to be getting weaker and while we may make it into Phase 8, it will not go further and it should die out in the neutral circle. I was afraid this might be a possibility. The very -PDO is continuing to destroy our hopes and dreams of cold and snow. Unless that PDO weakens I think the idea of milder then avg with below normal snowfall is good.

Those animations could have taken from any period since mid summer or even earlier. Pattern of persistence . We’ve been saying the MJO needs to get to 8/1 with strength to See the trough move more into the OV and bring a persistent wetter period. With the MJO finally getting into the Pacific (6/7) we can see how that charges the pac jet into the NW and the eventual trough into the central US

Yep! It's a broken record for sure. Unfortunately, I am not confident on seeing any changes. The tropics don't look like they are going to help and the MJO IMO doesn't appear to be yet either. We really need to see that -PDO start to rise. At or below -3 has been terrible.

EU and GEFs ensembles still showing temps cool to near normal (EU) to slightly below normal (GEFs) for the second week of November

I agree with a cool down after Election Day but I do think it'll be short lived as I said this morning. 12Z GFS has the tropics holding up the moisture and cold air to our NW thanks to the tropics stalling out a system over the Bahamas.

Good Morning and November is here already and looking forward to a much busier month. Still believe the month as a whole will be milder than normal temps but I do expect rainfall to be above normal and this is good news and though the growing season is over getting rains when the ground is not frozen does help. Still not expecting any tropical systems to hit the mainland USA but that does not mean the tropics won't influence the weather. Very common to have a system or two south of Cuba in November which could happen next month. One thing that has been steady for the most part in October is a strong high off the east coast. This has kept fronts from moving through the Ohio Valley and finally we get one the last day of October. This high will weaken enough to allow the system to move through but with the tropics the high should get stronger once again. With the GOM finally open for business this will allow more moisture to move up from the western GOM at first and get into the central part of the country. At first the rains will only move so far east but we will be close enough to have chances of rain next week but much of that will probably be north and west. Any tropical system that forms should finally be leaving the area later next week and this in turn will let the high in the Atlantic north of there to get weaker and this will allow more systems to move through here and east of us as the month goes on.

Looking back on October and yes the highs have been higher than normal by about 4 degrees but the lows below normal by about 1 degree so we should end up about 3 degrees above normal. So yes mild but nowhere near record warmth for the month but it just seemed warmer with sunny days for much of the month and warm afternoon highs. This is different than what we have seen especially in June the past several years where the highs were below normal and lows above normal because of rather wet June's except for this past one.

The mean trough for at least the first half of November will be NW of us and we will see mainly above normal temps and ridging. We will see some rain from time to time too with how much TBD. That will depend on the tropics and how strong the ridge is. I am still hopeful for a change later in the month but boy oh boy, above normal temps overall for the month is pretty much a slam dunk.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 7:25 am The mean trough for at least the first half of November will be NW of us and we will see mainly above normal temps and ridging. We will see some rain from time to time too with how much TBD. That will depend on the tropics and how strong the ridge is. I am still hopeful for a change later in the month but boy oh boy, above normal temps overall for the month is pretty much a slam dunk.

Looks like we’ll be going into mid November without a killing freeze. This day and age that’s not surprising. Annual and perennial flowers look beautiful still, at least the places where I’ve seen.

Next week brings more record/near record warmth into the OV