Absolute Vorticity

Well folks all eyes in the tropics are on TS Milton. Here is the latest NHC advisory:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

I am expecting Milton to be a Cat 3 or major hurricane at landfall with a possible Cat 4 also on the table. Gulf water temps are in the mid 80s so plenty warm for development along with low vertical wind shear. Milton is moving slowly but will pick up speed as time goes on and head towards the West Coast of FL by the Tues / Wed time frame next week. Guidance has landfall in the Tampa to Ft, Myers zone at this time. Tampa might be ground zero with this one. Some of these same areas are still dealing with the flooding aftermath from Helene so this could unfold into a dire situation next week for those people.

Latest recon obs have it as a 986 MB storm. Milton is starting to get its act together:

Good Morning and always like the name Milton. Les I agree Cat 3 is possible and really this storm became a much more organized system when a storm in the Pacific was able to cross land and help get this storm strengthen. We had talked about how the eastern GOM a storm probably would not form but we thought the place that had been untouched was the western GOM and exactly that has been the case. Still plenty of warm water though once it near Florida there may be some sheer to keep it from getting to say a Cat 4. Again either way and even a Cat 2 towards the Tampa area is not good. My daughter is on a cruse leaving out of Miami this afternoon but she is doing the eastern route so really she may be just hot and muggy

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:16 am Good Morning and always like the name Milton. Les I agree Cat 3 is possible and really this storm became a much more organized system when a storm in the Pacific was able to cross land and help get this storm strengthen. We had talked about how the eastern GOM a storm probably would not form but we thought the place that had been untouched was the western GOM and exactly that has been the case. Still plenty of warm water though once it near Florida there may be some sheer to keep it from getting to say a Cat 4. Again either way and even a Cat 2 towards the Tampa area is not good. My daughter is on a cruse leaving out of Miami this afternoon but she is doing the eastern route so really she may be just hot and muggy

I agree Tim on the name. Reminds me of the movie Office Space. Where's that red stapler? Great post though Tim as you are correct about the origins of this system. Here's a zoom'ed in look at the wind shear around Milton. I have circled where the center is in black. The red areas are high shear, green areas are low. You can see shear to its north and south but there is a narrow window of low shear to the west and east and it is in that window where Milton is traveling (East). That should allow for continued development of this system.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A STRONGER MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

As of 11am, Milton now has winds of 65 mph, moving ESE at 6 mph.

Milton has some nice development now. Lightning occurring and a CDO (Central Dense Overcast) is also forming. We might see a Cat 1 cane by the 2pm advisory.

I had to update the thread title since Milton is now a hurricane as of the 2pm advisory with 80 mph winds and looing better all the time.

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

NHC has Milton peaking at 125 mph in another 48 hours from now. That's a strong Cat 3! I still say a Cat 4 is also possible with this system.

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

Oh wow... look at the NHC intensity forecast now, a strong Cat 4!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

From the NHC's 5pm discussion. Wow!

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 93.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio
Lagartos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to
Cabo Catoche
* Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee
River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to
Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee
* Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

Good Morning and Milton looks really like its winding up quite nicely. Looks like the models are heading towards the gfs which has the storm near the Tampa/St Pete area. Of course hitting an area with that kind of population will become a big problem. Makes things worse we know the rainfall down there has been heavy before the storm so this will help loosen the soil more so trees have a much easier time falling. Most likely a strong Cat 3 when it hits but like we have always mentioned its much different between strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4. I have a few relatives that live on the east coast and yes will see heavy rain and winds but hopefully not the destruction we may see on the west coast.

GFS is north of Tampa Bay while the Euro is south. For Tampa impacts, you'd want the center to pass north so that they are on the south side of the circulation (offshore winds). If it passes south of Tampa Bay then they would be on the north side which is the worst side to be on (North and East) This thing will be impacting both the West and East Coasts of the state, West Coast will have the worst impacts vs the East Coast but still impacts for both, The key will be wind shear. How much will the wind shear weaken this system prior to landfall? We'll just have to wait and see. The stronger it gets today and tomorrow will tell us a lot. Expecting a Cat 4 peak before the shear takes over, but honestly a Cat 5 is also not out of the question. I expect the shear to weaken it to a Cat 3 as it makes landfall which is obviously still a major hurricane. I do not yet know if it'll pass north or south of Tampa Bay which is huge for this densely populated area. The Euro is the worst case scenario tracking the center right on thru Tampa Bay itself.

One other thing to note, the further north it comes, we would also see onshore wind, rain, and surge impacts for coastal GA and perhaps SC as well. Again, it depends on the track. The GFS does show this scenario very clearly since it is the furthest north of all models.

Les the storm surge is going to be a big problem and just two weeks ago with Helene I saw some of the pics of St Pete and the surge was quite high and they were quite a few miles away from the center of the storm. The track should be interesting and the Euro is south of the GFS but I believe even yesterday that model had it going into Ft Myers area so it has moved north and trends are always a good thing to watch with models.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:55 am Les the storm surge is going to be a big problem and just two weeks ago with Helene I saw some of the pics of St Pete and the surge was quite high and they were quite a few miles away from the center of the storm. The track should be interesting and the Euro is south of the GFS but I believe even yesterday that model had it going into Ft Myers area so it has moved north and trends are always a good thing to watch with models.

I agree Tim. The storm surge is always the biggest issue with any land falling tropical system. Hope the Euro is wrong for Tampa Bays sake. Agree with you about the north trend. Due to the ridge over us, it will only be allowed to come so far north before it's blocked if you will. It certainly could be as far north as the GFS. I am still very concerned for the Tampa / St. Pete area too.

We have a Cat 3 already, wow!

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:35 am We have a Cat 3 already, wow!

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

Saw the image this morning and wow its a nice looking storm to say the least. Maybe Cat 5 at some point and again once it gets to the coast will weaken some but during the weakening the storm sort of expands so more folks are getting involved with some nasty winds.

I just saw a satellite loop on weathernerds.org and It definitely has "that look" Tim of a very dangerous storm! I will try and get that posted here shortly. Can't post it from the customer's side but within the next 20 mins give or take, I'll log on to my company PC and get that done.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

I have friends in Tampa and a cousin and her ex-husband in Melbourne. This tropical season makes my stomach queasy.

Late Sept into Oct and BOOM! Helene and Milton with different tracks but still heartbreaking destruction and casualties.

Prayers and thoughts with all.