Absolute Vorticity

Rocktober starts on Tuesday of next week and this is the month that can sometimes hold clues for the upcoming winter. It's the heart of Fall along with football, Columbus Day, and Halloween to end the month. The weather can be wild and dynamic with t-storms and snow possible. It can also be cool and very pleasant. First frosts are also common most of the time. We are busy tracking Helene right now as we wind down Sept, but I'll go ahead and get the new thread going for those who want to talk about the longer term.

Yes I am ready for some cool air but may need to wait until late in the second week for that to happen. The first few days will be very nice with temps not to far from average with highs in the low-mid 70's and nights will fall into the low 50's. The tropics are not finished as the GOM looks to get its act together once again but if we get a storm what area of the gulf does it develop and does it have a direct impact on us. Once we get into week 2 a big trough will dig in the eastern 3rd of the country and this looks to be a very nice shot of cool air. This is the type of air mass where you can have a day or two in the 50's and mid-upper 30's at night. Again a few weeks away so plenty of time to watch this unfold.

We should see highs in the upper 70s Tues, a cold front (which will pass dry) then cools off into the 60s to perhaps 70 on Wed. In the 70s thereafter and perhaps back to 80 to 82 by the weekend. Wed on looks like beautiful sunshine too so we'll get a chance to dry out and mow / grind up leaves and clean up! Not sure as of yet when our first chance of October rain will be and in what form. Do we get a cold front, or the next Gulf tropical system? We shall have to wait and see. To me... temps look to be pretty seasonal for the first 10 days of the month. I don't see any big heat or cold air at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 28, 2024 8:06 am We should see highs in the upper 70s Tues, a cold front (which will pass dry) then cools off into the 60s to perhaps 70 on Wed. In the 70s thereafter and perhaps back to 80 to 82 by the weekend. Wed on looks like beautiful sunshine too so we'll get a chance to dry out and mow / grind up leaves and clean up! Not sure as of yet when our first chance of October rain will be and in what form. Do we get a cold front, or the next Gulf tropical system? We shall have to wait and see. To me... temps look to be pretty seasonal for the first 10 days of the month. I don't see any big heat or cold air at this time.

Great Post Les and I agree temps rather close to normal. Of course if the tropics in the GOM decide to get busy then we could see some ridging in this part of the world next weekend we could get near 80 though the wet ground helps in any heat getting out of control. We know 90's are done and maybe 80's but not going to say for sure on that just yet. If the tropics behave then my guess next weekend we will be more in the low-mid 70's next weekend. Longer term models are trending towards a nice trough over the eastern 1/3 of the USA. Again this can be delayed with a tropical system but it does look like a nice shot of cooler air plus Alaska which has been rather cool even for them looks to warm up and the western part of the USA remains warm to hot though this time of year especially along the coast you tend to see some of the hottest temps of the year.

I agree Tim, I don't see us (as of yet) getting higher then the lower 80s. Like you said, it'll depend on what happens with the tropics down in the Gulf. October will begin with high pressure for about the first week then we'll see what happens after that with the tropics.

12Z GFS - Let's hope it's wrong showing another cane impacting some of the same areas that got whacked by Helene.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 28, 2024 2:04 pm 12Z GFS - Let's hope it's wrong showing another cane impacting some of the same areas that got whacked by Helene.


GFS.gif

A shame there can't be a blocking feature to shunt that L away. Survivors of Helene probably will have something similar to PTSD.

Will be interesting concerning the possible tropical system. The western gom has not had much action lately compared to the eastern gom. There will probably be a front and trough coming into the USA. Usually by this time of year tropical systems will tend to move more northeast instead of north and really the last system would have gone much further east if the upper low was not nearby. Should be fast moving once it finally gets to the mainland if that happens. Plenty to time to figure this one out. Models will still have some problems as well since a tropical system is in the area.

Each run has different thoughts on the possible tropical system later this week. If you look into the past and see that tropical systems have a hard time getting to far north though they can sometimes hit the east coast but tend to be fast movers. Will watch this as the gom waters are still warm. For us the first 4-6 days of the month look great. Tuesday may start out with some fog and we know once you get into the fall season takes a tad longer to burn off. Cold front later Tuesday and Wednesday looks almost perfect. Thursday through Sunday look nice as well with temps rising to the mid-upper 70;s but nights in the 50's. Then will see if the tropics offer up anything and we should start to see more cold fronts entering the USA as we get deeper into the fall season.

Bering Sea/GOA Low pattern looks to remain for the first half of October. Canada remains above normal , although nothing like most of September , still no build up any large anomalous cold air mass for Canada, so not seeing any noteworthy cold spells for us for the first half of the month. If no tropical involvement during this time expect below normal precipitation , again for first half. That’s as far as I’ve looked, had our first overnight babysit with our 2 month old granddaughter , so , you know how that goes.

I agree Bgoney with your thoughts. The first half of the month looks much quieter (minus the potential Gulf of Mexico tropical system of course). I currently think it'll be a swing and a miss to the SE for our local area but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on just in case. We're losing some of the blocking and the pattern to me looks more progressive. Kind of a zonal flow with the jet stream as time goes on with the bulk of the weather in the Gulf of Alaska / Pacific NW as you mentioned. I also am expecting below avg precip for the first half of the month with temps skewing above normal as a whole. We will see a below normal day like Wed of next week but we shoot right back up to above normal values very quickly esp since the avg high is dropping more rapidly now the deeper we get into Fall with the loss of daylight. The 80s aren't quite done with us. I could see 80-82 degree readings coming up for sure. It's good though since that'll give folks time to clean up and get a few outside things done before the nasty Fall weather comes.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 10:54 am Bering Sea/GOA Low pattern looks to remain for the first half of October. Canada remains above normal , although nothing like most of September , still no build up any large anomalous cold air mass for Canada, so not seeing any noteworthy cold spells for us for the first half of the month. If no tropical involvement during this time expect below normal precipitation , again for first half. That’s as far as I’ve looked, had our first overnight babysit with our 2 month old granddaughter , so , you know how that goes.

First of congrats on the granddaughter. Is this your first grandchild? I miss the babies and love watching them anytime. My oldest who is in is second year of college and then the rest are all teenagers. I remember my oldest who was born in November and sitting down watching a UK game in January and holding him the entire time. The most relaxing thing in the world is holding them and feeling the heart beat next to yours.

Okay back to the weather and the tropics will mess with the models as we know. I do expect a cold shot before the middle of the month but one where the cold air comes out of northeast and yes probably north central Canada. By the end of the week will watch this to see if the models have honed in on this possible outcome. Good thing is the ground much wetter and don't see any kind if heat where temps stay in the 80's for an extended period. Not sure if we even reach 80 but if so only a day or two and you are talking 80-82 imo.

I just looked at the Ensembles and if this were winter, it would be ugly for snow and cold lovers. We've got to get rid of that Alaskan Vortex. That is the kiss of death for winter lovers in the Eastern US. Luckily we are only beginning the month of Rocktober Tues of next week. If this were late Nov or early Dec, I'd be worried for the upcoming winter. For our more sensible weather in the near term, we will not see extended cool to cold air masses until that Alaskan Vortex is gone. That is the point of this post if you can read thru the rambling.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:16 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 10:54 am Bering Sea/GOA Low pattern looks to remain for the first half of October. Canada remains above normal , although nothing like most of September , still no build up any large anomalous cold air mass for Canada, so not seeing any noteworthy cold spells for us for the first half of the month. If no tropical involvement during this time expect below normal precipitation , again for first half. That’s as far as I’ve looked, had our first overnight babysit with our 2 month old granddaughter , so , you know how that goes.

First of congrats on the granddaughter. Is this your first grandchild? I miss the babies and love watching them anytime. My oldest who is in is second year of college and then the rest are all teenagers. I remember my oldest who was born in November and sitting down watching a UK game in January and holding him the entire time. The most relaxing thing in the world is holding them and feeling the heart beat next to yours.

Yep , first one . She was great. Only cried when she was hungry and wanted a diaper change, just like her grandpa

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:42 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:16 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 10:54 am Bering Sea/GOA Low pattern looks to remain for the first half of October. Canada remains above normal , although nothing like most of September , still no build up any large anomalous cold air mass for Canada, so not seeing any noteworthy cold spells for us for the first half of the month. If no tropical involvement during this time expect below normal precipitation , again for first half. That’s as far as I’ve looked, had our first overnight babysit with our 2 month old granddaughter , so , you know how that goes.

First of congrats on the granddaughter. Is this your first grandchild? I miss the babies and love watching them anytime. My oldest who is in is second year of college and then the rest are all teenagers. I remember my oldest who was born in November and sitting down watching a UK game in January and holding him the entire time. The most relaxing thing in the world is holding them and feeling the heart beat next to yours.

Yep , first one . She was great. Only cried when she was hungry and wanted a diaper change, just like her grandpa

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:42 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:16 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 10:54 am Bering Sea/GOA Low pattern looks to remain for the first half of October. Canada remains above normal , although nothing like most of September , still no build up any large anomalous cold air mass for Canada, so not seeing any noteworthy cold spells for us for the first half of the month. If no tropical involvement during this time expect below normal precipitation , again for first half. That’s as far as I’ve looked, had our first overnight babysit with our 2 month old granddaughter , so , you know how that goes.

First of congrats on the granddaughter. Is this your first grandchild? I miss the babies and love watching them anytime. My oldest who is in is second year of college and then the rest are all teenagers. I remember my oldest who was born in November and sitting down watching a UK game in January and holding him the entire time. The most relaxing thing in the world is holding them and feeling the heart beat next to yours.

Yep , first one . She was great. Only cried when she was hungry and wanted a diaper change, just like her grandpa

Enjoy those years, Wxbuddy, because before you know it she'll be in college if that's her choosing.

Hard to believe how fast time flies as my nephew and his wife reside in Columbia, TN south of Nashville and my niece is in Mt. Airy, NC (native birthplace of actor Andy Griffith). Mt. Airy and nearby Pilot Mountain are the models for Mayberry and Mt. Pilot.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 4:02 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:42 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:16 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 29, 2024 10:54 am Bering Sea/GOA Low pattern looks to remain for the first half of October. Canada remains above normal , although nothing like most of September , still no build up any large anomalous cold air mass for Canada, so not seeing any noteworthy cold spells for us for the first half of the month. If no tropical involvement during this time expect below normal precipitation , again for first half. That’s as far as I’ve looked, had our first overnight babysit with our 2 month old granddaughter , so , you know how that goes.

First of congrats on the granddaughter. Is this your first grandchild? I miss the babies and love watching them anytime. My oldest who is in is second year of college and then the rest are all teenagers. I remember my oldest who was born in November and sitting down watching a UK game in January and holding him the entire time. The most relaxing thing in the world is holding them and feeling the heart beat next to yours.

Yep , first one . She was great. Only cried when she was hungry and wanted a diaper change, just like her grandpa

Enjoy those years, Wxbuddy, because before you know it she'll be in college if that's her choosing.

Hard to believe how fast time flies as my nephew and his wife reside in Columbia, TN south of Nashville and my niece is in Mt. Airy, NC (native birthplace of actor Andy Griffith). Mt. Airy and nearby Pilot Mountain are the models for Mayberry and Mt. Pilot.

I agree with the time flying thing. My niece is 11 and two nephews are already 9 and 7. Seems like they were born just yesterday.

The first day of ?Rocktober (tomorrow) still holds a 50 / 50 chance at a shower and even a t-storm with the cold frontal passage coming in Tues night. Then, we are good to go thru the weekend along with a warming trend by Thurs. Temps would avg above normal temps thru the weekend in the 75 to 80 degree range. Then rain chances return for the beginning of next week with our next cold front with temps remaining in the 60s for highs for a bit behind the front.

If skies can clear enough tonight, look for dense fog for the AM commute in the morning to begin our first day of Rocktober. Look for scattered showers and maybe even a t-storm in the afternoon and evening as a cold front comes thru. Then, we look to be dry, sunny, and down right wonderful thru the weekend. Enjoy!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 30, 2024 5:15 pm If skies can clear enough tonight, look for dense fog for the AM commute in the morning to begin our first day of Rocktober. Look for scattered showers and maybe even a t-storm in the afternoon and evening as a cold front comes thru. Then, we look to be dry, sunny, and down right wonderful thru the weekend. Enjoy!

Thru the weekend and beyond. That’s a huge area in the lower 48 with virtually no precip the first 10 days , as high pressure dominates

welcome to October. probably my favorite month . well November can be very nice also. its kind of a toss up but the colors this month are much nicer. long range looks descent here with average temps so that is good. I can remember just 4 or 5 years ago it was 90 here in early October. my 10 day is mostly 65-70 with plenty of sun

Good morning! It looks like our only chance for rain for a while to begin October is this afternoon and evening with a cold front. Then we are dry, sunny, and downright gorgeous for a while! The tropical system in the Gulf idea is losing traction right now which is honestly good news for the SE US. The warmest day in the next 7 is Friday with the lower 80s. Otherwise we will be in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

September came in at #4 warmest ( 6 below normal days and 24 above). Also squeaked into top ten wettest.

Sept def was a strange month precip wise. We were looking at a record dry month / Top Ten and thanks to the Upper Low and Helene, it turned into a the tenth wettest.

Lucky we started out cool and finished with the month with cloudy and rainy conditions. The middle part of September was brutal and I don't remember a 10 day or so period in the middle of September that was that hot. Of course drought conditions an the huge ridging over southern Canada just kept the heat going. Ended up about 4.5 degrees above but like mentioned top 10 in the rainfall department.

This past summer and early fall reminds me so much of 1983 which brought winter to us early in December. We will see as many other items not the same as that year.