Absolute Vorticity

The first day of Met. Fall begins this coming Sunday and the first week of Sept looks to be below avg in temps (for the most part) with little to no precip until perhaps we get towards Friday the 6th with our next frontal system. We are watching the tropics as well. We still have 3 months left in the season, with this month being the peak. I'm not ready to declare game over yet for the 90s either as the tropics may still have a say in regards to that, however, if we do see a few, it should not be like August that is for sure.

I have to go with temps for the month to average above normal. Ridge in the center of the lower 48/central Canada looks to be a dominant player. Canada’s going to run above normal with the current 500mb forecast

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 9:51 am I have to go with temps for the month to average above normal. Ridge in the center of the lower 48/central Canada looks to be a dominant player. Canada’s going to run above normal with the current 500mb forecast

In addition, I'd have to go below normal for precip unless the tropics corporate of course. But you can't depend on that as you know.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 10:04 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 9:51 am I have to go with temps for the month to average above normal. Ridge in the center of the lower 48/central Canada looks to be a dominant player. Canada’s going to run above normal with the current 500mb forecast

In addition, I'd have to go below normal for precip unless the tropics corporate of course. But you can't depend on that as you know.

The fantasy land on the latest GFS runs show something coming out of the GOM for some love for us! But just like in the winter, it keeps pushing it back and/or never happens! I'm just bored, and it's the only thing getting my attention looking at the extended outlook!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 10:26 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 10:04 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 9:51 am I have to go with temps for the month to average above normal. Ridge in the center of the lower 48/central Canada looks to be a dominant player. Canada’s going to run above normal with the current 500mb forecast

In addition, I'd have to go below normal for precip unless the tropics corporate of course. But you can't depend on that as you know.

The fantasy land on the latest GFS runs show something coming out of the GOM for some love for us! But just like in the winter, it keeps pushing it back and/or never happens! I'm just bored, and it's the only thing getting my attention looking at the extended outlook!

We have a lot of boring weather to come. Pretty typical for the time of year.

Good Morning and love seeing the comments on the upcoming month. Again the biggest influence that really can change a forecast in September is the tropics. Saying that the first full week the tropics should play little if any problems in forecasting.

What I see for the entire month is yes the drier than normal conditions will continue but we should have several cool fronts able to work fully through the Ohio Valley with one on Saturday into Sunday and another later next week. Temps I believe will be near normal with afternoon highs above the norm but overnight lows below and this should give us a normal temp pattern by the end of the month. So expect a lot of 40's and 50's for lows but also 70's and even 80's early in the month for highs. With the drier ground temps will be able to rebound during the day but also cool down quickly in the evening.

The tropics if they come into play can play a big part but where those systems go also makes a big difference on temps.

I do think the tropics may play a role as time goes on. Not right way as we know but in Weeks 2-4 of Sept. The wave train is starting to get going now as the Cape Verde season finally is beginning to show some signs of life. Whether or not the CONUS is impacted remains to be seen, Do we get a trough and the system is a fish storm or is the ridge located over the top so we can get a gulf system to sneak underneath it? Both scenarios are on the table. It is all about timing like everything in weather.

LOL@ the 12Z Euro. Major cool shot of air. Towards Days 9-10, highs in the 50s, maybe 60 tops? 12Z GFS has 70s which is far more believable.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 5:11 pm LOL@ the 12Z Euro. Major cool shot of air. Towards Days 9-10, highs in the 50s, maybe 60 tops? 12Z GFS has 70s which is far more believable.

Hey Les and the Euro has mid-upper 80's next week which I believe is laughable as well. Again we are still in summer and the lovely Euro has problems especially with temps. Yes I believe we have another cool shot late next week but temps in the low 70's seem more like it and really the only way you see temps that cool in early-mid-September is with a very cloudy and rainy day and you are on the northwest side of a low pressure.

An interesting model battle is beginning to take shape towards the end of next week and esp by next weekend. Until then, we will be quiet and peasant weather wise to kick off the 1st month of Met. Fall. The model battle is as usual the GFS versus the Euro. The GFS wants to form a cut off low over the Great Lakes by next weekend which would drag a slow moving cold front in our direction. This would give us cloudy, cool, and damp weather at times. The Euro is much more progressive and has an open wave and blows the front thru much faster so by the time the low forms it's near the East Coast. The Euro has no tropical system but the 6Z run of the GFS does show a Gulf system as we approach mid month, attaching itself to the aforementioned front.

This is all out there a ways in model la la land and using the Ensemble guidance to try and sort out some of the noise is typically the way to go. If we do that, the GEFS supports the OP GFS showing blocking high pressure over the trop over S Canada and New England so the pattern being advertised with a cut off low would make sense as well as a tropical system getting involved sneaking under neath the ridged in the Gulf. The EPS is more Euro like with the ridging much further to the south so we are in a drier pattern and I still could see how the tropics could get involved down the road. We'll just have to wait and see which solution is correct. It looks like it boils down to the placement of the ridge., Further north into S Canada or further S over the Great Lakers and Northern OV. This looks to be our 1st forecast challenge for Sept. We've got a week for sure to watch and discuss the guidance as it updates going forward to see which solution winds up being right.

Great Post Les. Models like mets and forecasters will have different opinions. Normally on this forum when we have different sides to how the upcoming pattern is going to evolve it seems many times its a combo of both opinions. So with the Euro and GFS at some odds it very well could be a combo of both outputs. The one extra factor is the tropics. What I like seeing was both the Euro and Cmc both showing that lovely 540 line dipping into southern Canada. If the Euro pans out no doubt for some early frost in the upper mid-west and New England. Many time we will see the first frost in the Northern Plains but the current pattern keeps that area somewhat milder on the western edge of these troughs.

The retirement community neighborhood where my folks and I reside, Bocce ball leagues games starts Labor Day onward through the middle or so of October. We all could use much needed liquid gold and of course will factor in Ma Nature accordingly re the Bocce ball playing.

Parts of Ohio in the midst of worst summer drought since record keeping with no relief in the foreseeable forecast future

For the last week in August, CVG finishes #2 with highest max temp average. While finishing #1 for highest mean average

Good morning all! One last humid and warm today (upper 80s expected) ad then we cool down and remain quiet for most of next week. By the time we get to Friday and into next weekend, chances begin to occur. We get a front and a very strong trough for the time of year. This looks to be our 1st decent cool shot of the fall season coming up. Like highs in the 60s to low 70s with lows in the 40s kind of thing. I say bring it! Good football weather. The deep trough looks to arrive by Sunday the 8th. Rain chances TBD and to be honest, they aren't looking so great to me but if we are going to be in a drought, let us have cooler temps anyway.

Great graphic by Bgoney on the last week of August. Even with such a hot week we still ended up only 1 degree above average for the month so this tells us the other 3 weeks or so were cooler than normal. Met summer only 1.3 above normal for temps so not a hot summer by any means though we had a hot spell in June and one last week of August. The biggest problem has been rainfall and overall a very dry summer for most folks in the Ohio Valley and yes Evansville finally got on the board yesterday with .002 inches of rain so the dry streak is over but very impressive for summer.

After midnight I got 0.14 inches of rain so just a drop in the bucket. Went outside this morning and starting to feel better and by later this afternoon and evening some lovely weather heading this way. Models are showing another really nice shot of cool weather later this week or weekend. Two ways to get these shots and one is a strong tropical system that works its way up the east coast and this can bring down some really cool air. Second way is the tropics have no influence on the mainland USA and these cold fronts can dig deeper and bring some lovely weather and that is the current pattern.

Dews have dropped into the 50s now. It's still warm today but it's getting better. It looks perfect for the WEBN Fireworks tonight if anyone is going down to Riverfest. Tomorrow looks awesome for my rib cook! Expecting highs in the upper 70s for your Labor Day. Quiet weather thru at least Thurs can be expected.

The 12Z GFS shows our next chance for rain to be Friday into Sat. A low rides along the front but it's too our East so the chances of rain for us locally aren't great. A nice prolonged cool spell will follow though with that deep trough coming in by Sunday the 8th.

86 / 54 as of 2pm at CVG. 88 for my high so far. It still feels hot to me outside.

Good Afternoon and talked to my son and he told me leaves already starting to change especially the maples. Very wet year with almost 80p/c above normal. With the cool clear nights expected in that area over the next 7-10 days expect leaves to continue to change and my guess a chance of an early frost. Locally here some leaf change but that is due to dryness.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 2:26 pm Good Afternoon and talked to my son and he told me leaves already starting to change especially the maples. Very wet year with almost 80p/c above normal. With the cool clear nights expected in that area over the next 7-10 days expect leaves to continue to change and my guess a chance of an early frost. Locally here some leaf change but that is due to dryness.

It's been so dry here, that the leaves just drop off with little color change. The leaf color around here wont be good this autumn IMO thanks to the dryness. The only good news is that leaf grinding season could end earlier then usual this year (I hope).

A very nice afternoon and the breeze sure did help as my Dad and I did some Bocce ball pre leagues game practice today with our neighborhood friend Chip and his second oldest adult son Brock whom I got to meet for the first time and that Dad had played with he and his Dad before. Very nice guy just like Chip is. Brock and his gf Sarah reside in Hilliard, OH near Columbus. My Dad and I won both games!

Currently 81 here in G'ville.

88 at CVG for today, Same for the high here. The gorgeous weather comes in tonight and sticks around thru at least Thursday.

As the cold front comes through and like Les said a very nice air mass through at least Thurs.