Absolute Vorticity

Welcome to the last month of Met. Summer which begins tomorrow. We will begin the new month aboard the MCS Train before we briefly dry out by Sunday on into next week. By the middle of next week, another cold front drops in from the north, while at the same time, a potential tropical system tries to push up from the Gulf. Lots to keep an eye on for the first half of the month that is for sure.

Very happy and getting closer to fall. Great Post Les and two things you mentioned with the potential tropical system but also the cold front in the northern plains which looks like a rather strong one for early August.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:31 am Very happy and getting closer to fall. Great Post Les and two things you mentioned with the potential tropical system but also the cold front in the northern plains which looks like a rather strong one for early August.

I keep seeing the GFS stalling the tropical system near the Gulf Coast next week. If correct, this could result in a catastrophic flooding event down there. Of course right now it is all speculation until we see the wave (approaching the Windward and Leeward Islands now) actually develop. Then, as you know, it's all about the timing with the next incoming cold front by the middle of next week. It should be interesting to track nonetheless.

Good morning all! Watching our next MCS out in ILL to see how it holds together for later today. If we don't get anything to pop ahead of time our chances for heavy rain and severe wx should be decent. A slight risk is out for today from the SPC. The NAM isn't handling the situation well at all so I will toss its solution. The 3KM NAM has the ILL MCS but it misses us to the north and gets the I-70 Crew and only scattered action for us. The HRRR has it hitting us very early this afternoon and a second round that mainly hits areas SW of us for this evening. As usual, we will nowcast it.

Tomorrow and Sat continue to offer up for chances before we dry out Sunday into early next week. Highs in the 80s with a 90 degree reading possible on the days where we can heat up with little in the way of clouds and / or rain.

The biggest forecast challenge for next week is an incoming cold front as well as a tropical system sometime for the second half of next week / next weekend. Timing is everything as well as the strength of the tropical system should it develop. An interesting forecast ahead once we get closer.

Great Post Les and yes the models are still having problems with the current pattern plus they all see something going on with the tropics but again not exactly sure of the placement. May guess is once we get past Saturday the tropics will become somewhat clearer. No doubt there is tons of tropical moisture this summer and the Bermuda High is having a hard time moving inland which keeps the flow towards us which is good because one a Bermuda High gets anchored inland very hard to move without a decent tropical system or strong cold front. Sure we can still have that happen but with recent rains over many parts of the east it makes it a tad harder to grab hold

Thanks Tim and I agree! The Bermuda high is definitely centered more over the Eastern Atlantic and has not had a chance to link up with the heat ridge over the West like it did in June. As you mentioned, there is a weakness between the two ridges at 500 MB and that is where we have been positioned. As long as that continues, we will continue to see decent rain chances. Fingers crossed that we can get thru August with a similar pattern in place. Although once the tropics heat up in the Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks, there is always a chance that a more sustainable hot pattern can return. No idea if that will be the case or not, but something I am watching in the very extended range.

I agree about the tropics getting going which is normal once we get into August. They can no doubt form some decent high pressure away from the systems and this can give us a spell of hot weather. Saying that with recent rains the vegetation is doing much better over much of the east and yes the humidity may be worse in August but hopefully the temps will not get out of hand. Not seeing anything above the low 90's over the next 10 days and this week I expected some heat advisories to move into our area but the mcs machine took care of that.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 6:36 am I agree about the tropics getting going which is normal once we get into August. They can no doubt form some decent high pressure away from the systems and this can give us a spell of hot weather. Saying that with recent rains the vegetation is doing much better over much of the east and yes the humidity may be worse in August but hopefully the temps will not get out of hand. Not seeing anything above the low 90's over the next 10 days and this week I expected some heat advisories to move into our area but the mcs machine took care of that.

Our thoughts are similar here Tim. I think a good temp range is 87-92 degrees. It will be cloud cover / t-storm dependent as to how warm we get each afternoon. Lows will be in the upper 60s so the humidity will no doubt continue over the next couple of weeks. Pretty typical August weather to be honest. The true dog days of summer are upon us.

CVG reporting a t-storm. Looks like a carbon copy of yesterday with more action over SE IN and NKY. Tim... you should be getting hit good per radar. Most of it has been to my south, That could change though here shortly.

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Man I hope these shower this morning don’t ruin our chances again for later

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 8:38 am Man I hope these shower this morning don’t ruin our chances again for later

It wouldn't shock me, The ILL moving into IN MCS looks like it is slowly weakening and it may also miss us to the northwest. Visible satellite isn't showing a lot of opportunity for sunshine. We'll see I guess.

The retirement community where my folks and I reside in south Greenville will be having a Maid-Rites party complete with a band in a village center bldg. at 5 PM today. Maid-Rites has been a Greenville landmark since 1934 and is famous for their loose meat beer-cooked burgers. Prayerfully the sky won't be unleashing during that hour and a half to 2 hours up this way.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 9:12 am The retirement community where my folks and I reside in south Greenville will be having a Maid-Rites party complete with a band in a village center bldg. at 5 PM today. Maid-Rites has been a Greenville landmark since 1934 and is famous for their loose meat beer-cooked burgers. Prayerfully the sky won't be unleashing during that hour and a half to 2 hours up this way.

That sounds like a good time Bro along with some good food too!

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Checking out some of the 12Z CAMs here and the NAM develops a line of severe storms over Central and S IN this afternoon and Cincy and vicinity gets hit in that 5-7pm window. 3KM NAM agrees just a smidge later. The HRRR is also in agreement. So we'll just have to wait and see. I need to mow (finally lol) but won't complain should the rain materialize as projected.

Radar shows that the incoming MCS from earlier has fallen apart but it should lay down an outflow boundary for new storms to fire later on. The question is... can we build up enough CAPE to do so? Visible satellite shows some stratus clouds still around However there is a lot of CAPE S of the river. Around 2000 J/kg by CVG and 3000+ down by LOU. I'm kind of optimistic here that we can get something going later today. We do have a pocket of 40 knot shear along the ILL and IN border so if that can get in here along with the CAPE and boundary left over from this morning's decaying MCS, things should be looking pretty good IMO maybe the best that they have all week for the folks who have been getting missed.

80 with a dew of 74 already at CVG. 12Z sounding from ILN shows the convective temp at 87. I'd like to see a bit more sun to achieve that. Still plenty of daylight hours left to do so. DCAPE is over 1200 J/KG on the sounding so that is a good signal for strong winds again. PWATS are high 1.8" so obviously a heavy rain threat. Finally.... the boys had this to say around 10am:


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are persisting this morning
across mainly southern portions of our area. This is in a
region of weak, moist low level flow that is forecast to
continue to weaken through late morning. Meanwhile, a decaying
MCS is approaching from the west. Expect this trend to also
continue through late morning, although there has been some
recent redevelopment along the outflow boundary moving toward
southeast Indiana.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty as to how much
the remnant showers and debris clouds will affect our
temperatures and instability as we head into this afternoon. We
will continue to bank on us getting enough sunshine through
early to mid afternoon to push highs into the upper 80s/lower
90s this afternoon. This will result in heat indices in the 95
to 100 degree range.

A few showers are beginning to develop back across the mid
Mississippi Valley. This is the region where several of the
CAMs are showing a secondary MCS forming early this afternoon
and then tracking east southeast into our area late this
afternoon into early evening. If this materializes, a few
severe storms would be possible with damaging wind and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threat.

Totally agree Les, we are in better shape locally than yesterday for a more widespread event later today. As you mentioned, more cape, more sun and no Cin. So hopefully the region can get a good cluster of heavy rainers later

Guys I agree with you both for later this afternoon. Again never 100p/c in this kind of situation but I would say anytime after 4pm through probably 10pm chances are rather high. I watched Brian's video and the talk about the tropics was perfect. Models having problems and the reason the mess north of their which includes us. Tropical systems love high pressures and that is not happening at the moment. Even next week is not looking good for any big high pressure for the models to head towards. Worse case is one gets close enough to some USA mainland and sits for days and days. What is interesting about the mcs pattern this season and I believe its just later than normal. Not saying its never happened this time of year but later July and August we are usually winding down the mcs season. One reason like Les mentioned before is we could never get the normal strong high pressures to connect for a period of time. Yes they did early in June but sense have stayed away from each for the most part. This gives the central USA more rains than normal this time of year which again helps with vegetation which in turn will lower temps by a few degrees though it will be muggy as heck. Heading to golf and tee time about 230 but only 9 holes so will be watching the sky and will be back on later this evening

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Thanks guys! CAPE up to almost 4000 J/KG now for Cincinnati along with some sun over Indiana just to our West. Watching the radar over S ILL to see if that area increases in coverage over the next few hours. I suspect that it will. T-storm watch just issued until 8pm this evening!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 9:12 am The retirement community where my folks and I reside in south Greenville will be having a Maid-Rites party complete with a band in a village center bldg. at 5 PM today. Maid-Rites has been a Greenville landmark since 1934 and is famous for their loose meat beer-cooked burgers. Prayerfully the sky won't be unleashing during that hour and a half to 2 hours up this way.

Hey Eric, save me a Maid-Rite. We always stop in there whenever we're passing through Greenville. Good stuff!

85 / 77 / 96 at CVG as of 2pm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 2:03 pm 85 / 77 / 96 at CVG as of 2pm.

Plenty of clear skies to go to our west, so I think we achieve maximum heating today . If we can’t get a good cluster going today in our hood , then its just not our year