Absolute Vorticity

Well folks... we are almost to the 2nd month of Met Summer starting on Monday of next week. We look to start off on the dry side with low humidity on Monday and the heat coming back by the middle of next week. T-storm chances also look to return Wed - Friday. We will be able to have a better idea of the timing of a couple of cold fronts due in here once we get closer. For you pyro's out there, no need to change any of your 4th of July plans until we can see how these MCS's will time themselves. It just too early right now. So far, the forecast looks good for my party on the 6th. Fingers crossed that the front will be thru by Sat morning at the latest, The only fly in the ointment that I currently see is if a tropical system gets into the Gulf, tries to come north, and if it is strong enough, that may act to slow the front down a bit. I currently do not see that on the guidance, but since we're talking Day 10, it is something to consider.

In the very long term, we are talking by the second week of July, the current ensemble guidance is showing the heat ridge further to the West which may get us into a better ridge rider pattern. This would be good news for My Dome as well as yours since the drought continues to worsen over the region. Discuss!

Nice post to get things started Les. We’ve been stuck in this pattern for 5-6 weeks and like you mentioned for at least 10 ish more days until/if the ridge moves west. Moisture has been riding up from the GOM through the plains and into Canada well to our west with the ridge meandering from to our east to our south. This is not a SE ridge where we would see moisture ride up the OHIO river , which has been part of the problem. That more western Gulf feed meets up with the Jet stream and troughing in the northern plains giving them record amounts of rainfall. So both the upper plains and OV need a pattern change rather quickly

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 1:44 pm Nice post to get things started Les. We’ve been stuck in this pattern for 5-6 weeks and like you mentioned for at least 10 ish more days until/if the ridge moves west. Moisture has been riding up from the GOM through the plains and into Canada well to our west with the ridge meandering from to our east to our south. This is not a SE ridge where we would see moisture ride up the OHIO river , which has been part of the problem. That more western Gulf feed meets up with the Jet stream and troughing in the northern plains giving them record amounts of rainfall. So both the upper plains and OV need a pattern change rather quickly

Thanks and I agree! The flooding in MN and Wisc has been pretty bad which has been the opposite of last year when major drought conditions were present. Michigan has received some nice rains too. Hopefully, we'll get something going before things get too much worse. The ridge retrograding to the West would do the trick assuming that it happens of course.

I believe Les started the July Thread early because he wants to start the October thread asap lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 7:49 pm I believe Les started the July Thread early because he wants to start the October thread asap lol

Of course Tim! Maybe we'll get some rain by then!

The pattern looks to turn more active by later Wed, for the 4th, Friday and now maybe into Sat as well...ugh! Timing of each of these fronts TBD but an early heads up for those trying to make plans for parties and get togethers, fireworks shows, etc.

12Z GFS is already backing off a tad on rain chances next week. The highest chances for our area is Wed night, the 4th, and Thurs night, as well as Sat afternoon.

Dang , EU says we have to wait almost another week just for our next best chance at rainfall

0Z GFS isn't very impressive at all accept for Fri morning. This isn't good folks... The 0Z Euro tries twice to bring in an MCS but it hits the dome and falls apart! Best chance is Fri morning also from this model.

Per the 12Z GFS, the best chance for rain now is on the 4th. Models continue to struggle with how quick the boundary moves thru as well as the frontal boundaries position as well as timing of shortwaves moving along it.

12Z Euro shows Wed night into Thurs then again on Fri morning as being the best chances for rain next week.

Models seem to be honing in on Wed night and the 4th as being our highest probabilities for rainfall. Bad timing for some fireworks parties I know, but IMBY we truly need the rain desperately. We'll see what happens once we get closer! We will kick off July on a lovely note tomorrow though. Lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s! We'll start off Tues in the 50s as well and get close to 90 by the afternoon. The really nasty humidity returns by Wed.

What a nice brand of weather for the next 36-40 hours. Temps in Michigan may get into the upper 30's so you know its a cold front. Locally we should see upper 50's the next two mornings but some outlying areas could get into the low 50's. Short-lived this time of year though and by Tuesday a quick warm up with temps in the upper 80's. Wednesday should be the hottest with low 90's and a big increase in humidity.

I was looking at the spaghetti models website, some models have Beryl carrying up through the area in about 10 days. The website that was referenced was Weathernerds.org.

Should be interesting with the tropical system. I saw the CMC has a direct hit on day 10 for us with a strong low by then. I still believe we will have some cold fronts able to move south and east and this would suppress the storm much further to the south. Not even sure at this point it makes it into the USA but if so a more southerly track would be likely. Who knows this year and going to be very busy. I would love to see us get a direct hit as that kind of tropical moisture can no doubt help the drought quickly.

Enjoy the next 30 hours or so as then we get very steamy. Rain chances and though we do start introducing those on Wednesday its not a washout by any means. The gfs is the drier model this week in terms of rainfall and so far this late spring/early summer the gfs has done the best model wise. We understand its hard to break these short term droughts and you need a tropical system in the summer or the change of season in the fall.

I know some folks north of the river have got some needed rain over the past few days while folks in Northern Ky like myself has got about 4 drops of rain lol. Love to see a more widespread rain for the Wednesday-Friday period but unlikely plus its the 4th and that would be bad timing

Good morning all! What a wonderful day today and I plan on getting some yard work done since it's the coolest day of the week. 60 at CVG this morning, 59 here. We should stay in the 70s for highs. The 50s one more time tomorrow then 88-90 ought to do it on Tuesday. The humidity will be in full force by Wed as we await a warm front to see how much convection we can get. For us down here in the desert area, I am not expecting much until Wed night. Chances look good on the 4th as well with a 50/50 shot on Friday. I am currently going dry for my party on Sat, fingers crossed! Models show 1-2" of rain being possible this week but I'll believe it when I see it here at The Dome. For temps... the 90s Wed and then the 80s for the rest of the week. For you severe wx lovers out there, the SPC has us in a slight risk on Wed so we'll see what happens when we get closer.

Have a rain gauge at a property in Indian Hill and they got 1.20” on Saturday……wouldn’t that be nice

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:50 am Have a rain gauge at a property in Indian Hill and they got 1.20” on Saturday……wouldn’t that be nice

I'll say! Praying like hell that one day can produce down here this week.

Good Morning Les and no doubt we can use the rain. 1-2 inches would be great and though would not end the drought it would help somewhat for the plants. Wednesday looks downright nasty and that may be the day where the heat index does reach the 100 degree mark. Would love to see the rain during the overnight hours with a nice mcs flowing through the area but knowing our luck we get hit between 6-10pm on Thursday.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:50 am Have a rain gauge at a property in Indian Hill and they got 1.20” on Saturday……wouldn’t that be nice

We were similar next door in Madeira. Meanwhile, I was out at my farm in Ripley, OH and we barely got enough (0.05") to settle the dust while I watched a storm form to the south of us and merge with the storm to the north of us just to the east over Adams county to give them a decent rain. Less than ten miles away from a decent rainfall.... On the bright side, brown grass doesn't grow as fast as green grass which does save time on the mower!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 8:03 am Good Morning Les and no doubt we can use the rain. 1-2 inches would be great and though would not end the drought it would help somewhat for the plants. Wednesday looks downright nasty and that may be the day where the heat index does reach the 100 degree mark. Would love to see the rain during the overnight hours with a nice mcs flowing through the area but knowing our luck we get hit between 6-10pm on Thursday.

Fine by me Tim! I'm not shooting my wad until Saturday evening. Would love Wed night to pan out too.

12Z NAM brings in a line of storms Wed night.

75 with a dew of 46 at CVG. Absolutely perfect for the time of year! 12Z GFS has almost an inch of rain at CVG for the Wed night thru Fri night period. Again, I'll believe it when I see it here at The Dome.

12Z Euro has 1.89" of rain at CVG for the Wed night thru Fri night period. Yes please!