Absolute Vorticity

Mon and Tues severe threat can be discussed here as well as the cool punch... rain and snow showers Wed ending early Thurs. The thread will start off busy that is for sure. Extended range continues to look busy too.

Just checked the GFS and CMC and they both have moved the heaviest rain for the entire period a little further south. I still like 1-2 inches but yes somebody will probably get in the 2-3 range before all is said and done. Precip all the way through early Thursday and yes maybe a touch of snow flying in the air as well. No accumulation but at least we get an ideal what snow looks like maybe

Euro has an inch of rain at CVG.

I’m still rolling with 2-4”+ area-wide. More of the guidance is falling in line with that forecast which increases my confidence.

Tuesday has the potential to be a big severe weather day in the tri-state. All modes possible but the tornado potential is elevated for sure.

High res NAM only goes out to 18z on Tue and the STP is already climbing big time.

HRRR also showing a few wicked supercells across the southern half of the tri-state area tomorrow evening.

https://www.facebook.com/cwc513/

Just posted multiple updates on my page...too many to C/P here. Check it out if you'd like.

Good Morning and Happy Easter!! A busy 5 days in front of us and had a few rounds of rain already this morning in my neighborhood. Trev as always provided some great information. Tons of moisture available and more typical of spring so higher amounts will be easier to achieve. Where the heaviest rain end up is starting to narrow but again will need adjustments as these complexes get started to the west. Though I have 1-2 inches for most folks and some in the 2-3 range you can get higher amounts if you get a very strong thunderstorm or the old railroad tracks and several hours of steady moderate to heavy rain. I don't believe we have widespread flooding but localized flooding that can come in a quick manner.

Severe weather and again the best shot will be late Monday into Tuesday but timing once again will determine much of the severe weather. Tuesday is interesting and I expect some severe weather early in the day but if the cold front and its a nice cold front slows down then Tuesday afternoon has a chance to see quite a bit of strong to severe storms. Need to watch the timing and at the moment we are close but maybe just a tad to far west to get the strongest of storms but we have a couple of days to watch the movement of the front'

Once the front comes through we get colder and a nice shot for early April and those April showers could end up being a few snow showers. By Friday we start to turn milder though not a sudden spike but several degrees each day through weekend and though mornings may be cool to cold the afternoons all weekend look great.

The eclipse on Monday and will we see some clouds and at the moment to early to call. I am hoping the system to the west slows down just enough so we can get through the day with sunshine though high clouds will probably be entering the picture and if the system is faster could be a cloudy day but hopefully once we get through the next 5 days timing of that system will come more into focus.

Happy Easter folks! Not much to add to what has already been posted. We can expect periods of rain and t-storms tomorrow and on Tuesday. Then we get colder Wed into Thurs with light rain and snow showers. Then we warm up and hopefully, next weekend may turn out to be a good one for a change. Yesterday was very nice minus the wind.

Currently for Tues e.g.

...SUMMARY...

A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:40 am Currently for Tues e.g.

...SUMMARY...

A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia.

Happy Easter Eric to you and your family. Tuesday will be interesting and the timing once again is key. Locally we will be close and hopefully can pin point the timing by Monday.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...The following counties in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette,
Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne. The
following counties in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll,
Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen and Pendleton. The
following counties in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Champaign,
Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin,
Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Miami,
Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected through
Tuesday evening. Each round of storms will have the potential
to produce heavy rain, with a cumulative effect evolving to
create increasing potential for excessive runoff with each
successive round of storms. The main time frame for heavy
rain and flooding will likely be Monday evening through
Tuesday morning. Total rainfall through Tuesday evening will
likely be 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible.

Les I saw the flood watch and was a little surprised. I believe they see Tuesday as a rough day and the further east you live the more likely to have possible flooding conditions. Again I don't believe its widespread but sure some of the normal streams and creeks and of course low lying areas could see some problems.

NAM continues to go wild for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Attached the modeled CAPE and STP.

High-end enhanced or maybe even a MDT may be required IMO. Of course will continue to watch things.

Monday update...

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:48 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:40 am Currently for Tues e.g.

...SUMMARY...

A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia.

Happy Easter Eric to you and your family. Tuesday will be interesting and the timing once again is key. Locally we will be close and hopefully can pin point the timing by Monday.

Thank you Tim and Happy Easter to you and your family, too.

Also a Happy Easter win via the Reds as they took the series over the Nats 6-5 with back to back homers by Will Benson and Christian Encarnacion-Strand!

I'm glad our guys will be in Philly Mon-Wed and given the potential OV severe set-up Mon / Tues. Currently Philly is just in the Marginal risk for Tues.

I feel for those picking up the pieces from the earlier March severe event e.g. Selma, Winchester in Indiana and parts of Auglaize, Darke, Logan, and Montgomery counties.

Radar is quiet so far... LLJ should kick in overnight and we should see action pop along and north of the warm front.

When the region had numerous severe weather a couple weeks ago we had shear in the 60-70 range. , with DPs in the 50s. Tuesday some models have shear in the 80-90 range, and DPs in the mid 60s

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 7:00 pm When the region had numerous severe weather a couple weeks ago we had shear in the 60-70 range. Tuesday some models have shear in the 80-90 range

Yeah if we can throw 1000j/kg+ of CAPE on top of that things will get rough.

On Tuesday, the 18Z NAM is concerning bringing a deepening 990s MB low right thru the Tri-state. A very tornadic set up if correct.

Les, I was looking that as well. I would bet they move that Enhance risk a bit further north off the models keep trending the way they do.

Good Evening and this would be the calm before the storm. The front last night went further south and that is why locally we stayed in the low-mid 60's as folks just south of here got into the 70's Will be interesting overnight where the next round of storms form as moisture will become more likely as time goes on. Probably get a dry period Monday afternoon but not sure how long that lasts and then the action really ramps up for about 24 hours. I agree with everyone here that severe chances are getting a little higher and if you get that boost in temps and dew points and with a low pressure coming near us on Tuesday this could lead to a rather large outbreak of severe weather. I usually like to tone it down on severe weather because more often the set up is not perfect for us because of timing and we tend to be just a bit to far northeast. This is somewhat different and with the low nearby the chances for rotating storms imo goes up. Just hope we get some decent rain without the severe weather.