Absolute Vorticity

Continue the discussion here.

12z HRRR is less bullish on the warm temps getting in here quick. Here is the last frame of that. 18z HRRR should be interesting. The stuff into SE IN looks bad.

18z HRRR shifted Northwest about 100 miles. Guess we are back to model wobbles.

Update from my page...

Surprised it's so quiet on here. Must be a Monday

Is this more a CIncinnati and parts NW event? SE area not in Advisory.

I 71 looks to be the dividing line at the moment

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:28 am Is this more a CIncinnati and parts NW event? SE area not in Advisory.

Better threat are areas under the advisory due to temps and timing.

Glad they put out the advisory. This way folks may pay a little more attention Tuesday morning. As the day wears on any frz/rain will finally be just all rain but still you must be careful on sidewalks,patios and decks later on as it might be Wednesday before they are totally clear of ice. Roads that have been treated will do much better but still a few slick spots early in the day

Where is Les today?

Looks like the warm air just may be winning out. Seems to be a little less of an ice threat compared to earlier.

Doug no doubt we got a tad higher in temps today but once the sun sets we should drop to between 33-35 rather quickly. Overnight the precip will try and move this way and you get the good old wet bulbing should happen which drops the temps a degree or two. The problem is the temp at 6 feet where its measured is going to be a couple of degrees warmer than some of the ground temps and especially ones like sidewalks,decks etc. This will be a quick bout and hopefully no harm. I would say a 4a-9a time period for most locally.

Should I try to reschedule a doctor's appointment for 8am? I'm in Batavia Two/appt in Anderson on 125.

Good Morning and it seems we dodged a bullet though a few places and of course sidewalks could have a thin layer of ice but by 9am most surfaces should be above 32. Doug was correct yesterday afternoon and the warming was greater than models were showing earlier and I thought temps would drop more last night and was wrong.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:16 am Good Morning and it seems we dodged a bullet though a few places and of course sidewalks could have a thin layer of ice but by 9am most surfaces should be above 32. Doug was correct yesterday afternoon and the warming was greater than models were showing earlier and I thought temps would drop more last night and was wrong.

These kind scenarios are so hard to predict. The models have a really hard time with these set ups. Just a couple of degrees makes all the difference in the world. And unfortunately, models are not yet skilled enough to be that exact on temperatures. Not only at the ground level, but all levels of the atmosphere. Even after the prolonged cold spell that we have been in causing the ground to become cold we seemed to have dodged a bullet.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:45 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:16 am Good Morning and it seems we dodged a bullet though a few places and of course sidewalks could have a thin layer of ice but by 9am most surfaces should be above 32. Doug was correct yesterday afternoon and the warming was greater than models were showing earlier and I thought temps would drop more last night and was wrong.

These kind scenarios are so hard to predict. The models have a really hard time with these set ups. Just a couple of degrees makes all the difference in the world. And unfortunately, models are not yet skilled enough to be that exact on temperatures. Not only at the ground level, but all levels of the atmosphere. Even after the prolonged cold spell that we have been in causing the ground to become cold we seemed to have dodged a bullet.

Agree - major bullet dodged at least here in the Dayton metro. North of town will be curious to see if Eric has any ice issues up his way.

You guys know how I hate ice so I for one am very thankful that this threat didn't happen. If anyone did see any frz rain, please let us know, esp our northern counties like Dave and Eric.

Hi Mike and Les,

It may have frz rain briefly here this morning here in Greenville. Unfortunately I hadn't paid any mind to the temp at the time so don't really know.

https://www.whio.com/news/local/police- ... WZWPED2PY/

A train derailment occurred in a part of G'ville today. I hope that it wasn't a malicious act of some sort that caused this.

I had a hunch "theory" that perhaps the change in temps from arctic blast to milder today might be a culprit? Freezing and thawing of the rail?