Absolute Vorticity

We've been talking about this for a while now and weenie snowfall maps are already circulating the interwebs, so let's get a thread rolling

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:15 pm We've been talking about this for a while now and weenie snowfall maps are already circulating the interwebs, so let's get a thread rolling

Ugh... I was going to wait until next week! But since you started it, this was my last post in the main January thread which I feel is very important and is so key for this system.

The GFS kept the lead wave on the 11th much further to the north where on this run of the Euro (new 12Z) it is further south and we actually get some light snow from it. This should bring in a nice batch of cold air to allow for a further SE track for the 12-13th system. So something to watch is the track of the lead wave on the 11th which should lay down the foundation for the strong low on the 12-13th. Now on this run, it is much weaker and a bit too far SE so I would expect the Euro to correct back north in future runs. I think one of the big keys to this system, is how much of a dig do we get with the lead wave on the 11th.

12Z EPS doesn't dig the 11th shortwave as far south as the OP Euro so thus, a stronger and more NW low track. On this run, the EPS has it from S LA to N MS to Central KY to SE OH / WV border. Quite a bit of spread on the Euro Ensemble which you would expect at Days 6 and 7. This would be a rain to snow scenario for Cincinnati should the track pan out. Nice storm for IND into Northern Ohio. I-70 folks are close on it too. Just need a bump SE from this particular low track and it would be game on for most AV posters.

Well, there goes that storm hahahaha

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:01 pm Well, there goes that storm hahahaha

Trev keeps starting these threads. Don't blame me!

#61 coming up for me next Sun so will be interesting to see what Ma Nature has in terms of a gift!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:12 pm #61 coming up for me next Sun so will be interesting to see what Ma Nature has in terms of a gift!

Right now the timing looks to be late Fri into Sat. That can of course change. If it does not, it would be dry and cold behind this storm for your B-day.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:20 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:12 pm #61 coming up for me next Sun so will be interesting to see what Ma Nature has in terms of a gift!

Right now the timing looks to be late Fri into Sat. That can of course change. If it does not, it would be dry and cold behind this storm for your B-day.

Bday weekend storm and I'll take it, Bro!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:20 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:12 pm #61 coming up for me next Sun so will be interesting to see what Ma Nature has in terms of a gift!

Right now the timing looks to be late Fri into Sat. That can of course change. If it does not, it would be dry and cold behind this storm for your B-day.

Bday weekend storm and I'll take it, Bro!

Hopefully your B-day Weekend will bring us some luck Bro!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:01 pm Well, there goes that storm hahahaha

That's what I thought when I saw this. The Kiss of death. lol

18Z GFS continues to not dig the shortwave on the 11th as much so the low for this thread can strengthen more rapidly and thus take a more NW track. We get a front end thumping of snow, then rain then back to snow at the end per the GFS.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:56 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:20 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:12 pm #61 coming up for me next Sun so will be interesting to see what Ma Nature has in terms of a gift!

Right now the timing looks to be late Fri into Sat. That can of course change. If it does not, it would be dry and cold behind this storm for your B-day.

Bday weekend storm and I'll take it, Bro!

Hopefully your B-day Weekend will bring us some luck Bro!

Prayerfully and hopefully it will Bro!

18Z GEFS tracks the low from the Gulf to NOLA to Nashville, TN to Portsmouth, OH to Cleveland. Still a pretty good spread looking at the individual members. The 18Z GEFS is NW of the 12Z GEFS however.

My gut tells me we will need to wait a bit longer for a big snow but anything possible with this system this far out. But the pattern continues to look exciting!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:11 pm My gut tells me we will need to wait a bit longer for a big snow but anything possible with this system this far out. But the pattern continues to look exciting!

The STJ will continue to pump 'em out even after this storm regardless of what happens. IMO, it is just a matter of time before one of these storms tracks favorably for us. An exciting pattern is unfolding for the country.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:21 pm

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:11 pm My gut tells me we will need to wait a bit longer for a big snow but anything possible with this system this far out. But the pattern continues to look exciting!

The STJ will continue to pump 'em out even after this storm regardless of what happens. IMO, it is just a matter of time before one of these storms tracks favorably for us. An exciting pattern is unfolding for the country.

I couldn’t agree more! I have reading non stop on here! Excited for the rest of the winter. Strictly an opinion on my behalf but I feel like it will be exciting!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:21 pm

mikeyp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:11 pm My gut tells me we will need to wait a bit longer for a big snow but anything possible with this system this far out. But the pattern continues to look exciting!

The STJ will continue to pump 'em out even after this storm regardless of what happens. IMO, it is just a matter of time before one of these storms tracks favorably for us. An exciting pattern is unfolding for the country.

I couldn’t agree more! I have reading non stop on here! Excited for the rest of the winter. Strictly an opinion on my behalf but I feel like it will be exciting!

I agree Mike. My expectation is that we will see a cold and active pattern for the next 2 weeks. A 5-7 day warm up for the last week of the month, then the Aleutian Low sets back up and the arctic hammer comes down again for February as we remain active. December was terrible but the second half of the winter won't be IMO. Stay tuned for sure... the party is only just beginning!

[media][/media]

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:12 pm #61 coming up for me next Sun so will be interesting to see what Ma Nature has in terms of a gift!

Happy birthday a bit early fellow 61 years young weather enthusiast! The regular knowledgeable meteorologists on here are gifting you a blizzard. We are overdue for an 8” snowfall, followed by sustained cold, and more small to moderate snow to add to our totals.

Snow on the ground until March followed by a beautiful sunny, but not too hot spring.

Have a great birthday Eric!

wxpatriot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:17 am [media][/media]

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:12 pm #61 coming up for me next Sun so will be interesting to see what Ma Nature has in terms of a gift!

Happy birthday a bit early fellow 61 years young weather enthusiast! The regular knowledgeable meteorologists on here are gifting you a blizzard. We are overdue for an 8” snowfall, followed by sustained cold, and more small to moderate snow to add to our totals.

Snow on the ground until March followed by a beautiful sunny, but not too hot spring.

Have a great birthday Eric!

Thank you Ron!

0Z GFS was a cutter to our West while the 6Z run tracked the low closer to us. Still not good for those wanting an all out snow storm. 0Z GEFS jumped NW while the 6Z GEFS ticked back SE. 0Z CMC is an outlier solution tracking the low to Detroit then it dies and a new EC Low forms. No model that I have seen is showing that type of solution so I am tossing it. The 0Z Euro tracks the low from Clarksville TN into SE Ohio. That would be a good run for I-70 folks but we get dry slotted in the Cincy area. The EPS isn't bad... NE LA to Middle TN to Eastern KY to Cleveland.

Good Afternoon and another wonderful day. Busy week that ends with a possible storm next weekend. Of course the big storm early in the week will imo cause any systems later in the week to be a little further southeast than models are showing today. There is also a minor system after the big system that will be to our north but this can also aid in adding more cold air further southeast. Hopefully by Wednesday we will have a better handle on the storm. Btw would not be surprise to see a winter like day on Wednesday as the big storm departs and we get some of those wind blown snow showers.

00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II!

It actually drops to 963mb. Folks that is the equivalent pressure to a low-end category three hurricane. Incredible!

This system is no doubt going to cause problems if it is indeed this strong. Looks like a mix of rain and snow going over to rain then back to snow. Kind of like a stronger version of La Boma with a further SE track as well. Still not far enough for an all out snow storm as I was hoping originally but still, it will have some wintry appeal for all AV posters.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:12 pm 00z GFS...964mb...incredible! Might have to rename this La Bomba II!

They would be incredible to see. That would probably shut Indiana down for a day or two. Even Western Ohio would see impacts with winds that high with just a couple inches of snow. We need that thing to weaken just a tad for a central Ohio track. That would bring significant impacts to Western Ohio.