Absolute Vorticity

Continue discussion of The Bomb here.

I love the thread title on this one! Good choice! An early prelim call for precip type would be snow to rain then back to snow along with strong winds should the low be as strong as advertised.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:31 am I love the thread title on this one! Good choice! An early prelim call for precip type would be snow to rain then back to snow along with strong winds should the low be as strong as advertised.

As each day passes, I become more and more interested in our wintry weather potential with The Bomb. I strongly believe that with time, colder solutions for us locally will start to show up. In fact, they already are when compared to where we stood a week ago. I expect that to continue.

SN-RN-SN is a good early call. It may very well end up that we are talking more of an ice and snow threat versus a lot of plain rain.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:31 am I love the thread title on this one! Good choice! An early prelim call for precip type would be snow to rain then back to snow along with strong winds should the low be as strong as advertised.

As each day passes, I become more and more interested in our wintry weather potential with The Bomb. I strongly believe that with time, colder solutions for us locally will start to show up. In fact, they already are when compared to where we stood a week ago. I expect that to continue.

SN-RN-SN is a good early call. It may very well end up that we are talking more of an ice and snow threat versus a lot of plain rain.

The 0Z GEFS was definitely more on the wintry side for sure.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:48 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:31 am I love the thread title on this one! Good choice! An early prelim call for precip type would be snow to rain then back to snow along with strong winds should the low be as strong as advertised.

As each day passes, I become more and more interested in our wintry weather potential with The Bomb. I strongly believe that with time, colder solutions for us locally will start to show up. In fact, they already are when compared to where we stood a week ago. I expect that to continue.

SN-RN-SN is a good early call. It may very well end up that we are talking more of an ice and snow threat versus a lot of plain rain.

The 0Z GEFS was definitely more on the wintry side for sure.

This first system for the weekend will absolutely have an effect on track and thermal environment as well...ESPECIALLY considering how close they are together in time.

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:51 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:48 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:31 am I love the thread title on this one! Good choice! An early prelim call for precip type would be snow to rain then back to snow along with strong winds should the low be as strong as advertised.

As each day passes, I become more and more interested in our wintry weather potential with The Bomb. I strongly believe that with time, colder solutions for us locally will start to show up. In fact, they already are when compared to where we stood a week ago. I expect that to continue.

SN-RN-SN is a good early call. It may very well end up that we are talking more of an ice and snow threat versus a lot of plain rain.

The 0Z GEFS was definitely more on the wintry side for sure.

This first system for the weekend will absolutely have an effect on track and thermal environment as well...ESPECIALLY considering how close they are together in time.

Without a doubt. We have to get this weekend correct before we can get La Bomba correct.

the Yamba La bomba storm

12Z GFS has a cutter thru Indiana.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:22 am 12Z GFS has a cutter thru Indiana.

Les this is what we talked about yesterday and two models had the western lakes cutter and one the eastern lake cutter Again this season hedging east is normally the best option. Even when these storms are getting stronger they are still heading more east than the normal northwest jump. Still believe we need the snow pack to the northwest and this would be fine even if its a snow-rain-snow with an inch or two because more storms are down the pipeline

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:22 am 12Z GFS has a cutter thru Indiana.

It is also messier and a bit weaker. 00z vs 12z.

Trev / Tim... the trends are certainly for a weaker / more SE track. No doubt about it. How much so is TBD.

I posted in the first how I am worried about the temp profile and there may be some issues with this bomb but I love what I see. Storms will travel with the least resistance and to me that looks to be the eastern lakes and if the storm is bombing out then you may be using the B word before all is said and done. I really believe locally we see more snow from this system than the one over the weekend. Systems that bomb out can get tons of cold air wrapped into the system and the low itself can even pass right on top of you and you still get hit hard.

It's hard for me to tell on the 24 hour panels (I am limited here at work with what I can see) but the Euro, if I am reading in between the lines correctly, passes the low right over us deepening as it does so.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:47 pm It's hard for me to tell on the 24 hour panels (I am limited here at work with what I can see) but the Euro, if I am reading in between the lines correctly, passes the low right over us deepening as it does so.

I believe that is correct Les. No doubt Trev has been talking about this system for sometime and it really has plenty of energy.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 1:47 pm It's hard for me to tell on the 24 hour panels (I am limited here at work with what I can see) but the Euro, if I am reading in between the lines correctly, passes the low right over us deepening as it does so.

I believe that is correct Les. No doubt Trev has been talking about this system for sometime and it really has plenty of energy.

Thanks Tim! Yeah, it will be a big wind maker for sure. I am sticking with snow to rain then back to snow for the time being. IMO that is a pretty safe call and one that we see a lot in the winter season.

I was doing some reading the other day. I read up on the Blizzard of 1978. I'm not saying we are going to see that, but the really low pressure and a very warm December all incline me to think that is a realistic scenario again.

Everyone I have talked to that remembers it, says that winter was eerily similar to this one so far...

The NWS article about it is here https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_78bli ... ive%20days.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:02 pm I was doing some reading the other day. I read up on the Blizzard of 1978. I'm not saying we are going to see that, but the really low pressure and a very warm December all incline me to think that is a realistic scenario again.

Everyone I have talked to that remembers it, says that winter was eerily similar to this one so far...

The NWS article about it is here https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_78bli ... ive%20days.

Aaron it is similar in some ways around here though the lack of snow in the northern plains and southern Canada was not there in 1978. I believe that season we started getting hit with storms around the 4th or 5th of January. Another difference is the El Nino was weaker that year and the cold was able to get here by early January. Just make take some extra time this year though we are heading in the correct way.

No changes from my earlier call. Snow to rain to snow. The track looks like it'll be right thru the OV and into the Great Lakes.

I can't get the song out of my head. This storm is exciting for many reasons and of course way to early for exactly what may happen but has the makings of a huge storm that will more than likely produce blizzard conditions somewhere in the great lakes or/and Ohio Valley. Models did move a little west overnight but not worried about that a week away. Besides the storm itself I believe the pattern change is even more important and this should be the forerunner that puts us into several weeks of winter like weather. Last year we had the blizzard just before Christmas and that changed the pattern but for the wrong reason if you loved winter weather. So I do believe by this weekend we will see some of the mets locally and maybe nationally start talking about this system. Trev you have touted this system for awhile and 100p/c agree.

LALALALALALABAMBA.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:22 am 12Z GFS has a cutter thru Indiana.

Les this is what we talked about yesterday and two models had the western lakes cutter and one the eastern lake cutter Again this season hedging east is normally the best option. Even when these storms are getting stronger they are still heading more east than the normal northwest jump. Still believe we need the snow pack to the northwest and this would be fine even if its a snow-rain-snow with an inch or two because more storms are down the pipeline

Does this mean that our SE suburbs get a chance to not be on the outs watching Mason and West Chester get snow and we get rain?

MJSun wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:43 am LALALALALALABAMBA.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:22 am 12Z GFS has a cutter thru Indiana.

Les this is what we talked about yesterday and two models had the western lakes cutter and one the eastern lake cutter Again this season hedging east is normally the best option. Even when these storms are getting stronger they are still heading more east than the normal northwest jump. Still believe we need the snow pack to the northwest and this would be fine even if its a snow-rain-snow with an inch or two because more storms are down the pipeline

Does this mean that our SE suburbs get a chance to not be on the outs watching Mason and West Chester get snow and we get rain?

Hey MJ! Hope all it well. My prelim call for this system next week is for everyone to start as snow, then go to rain, then end of snow on the backside. Several more days to go on this one for sure. I currently think that the low will track thru our area strengthening as it does so.

Should be fun to see what the models are trending towards with this system. Again high pressures are getting stronger each run and these are located in southern Ontario. Storm needs a path of least resistance but we also need cold air drawn into the system from the northeast if possible.

After seeing the 12Z GFS and CMC, my prelim call looks solid! We can nail down the specifics once we get closer.

Ukie makes things even more interesting

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:10 pm Ukie makes things even more interesting

UKIE seems to be the furthest SE of all models at 144 hours. I forgot about the Meteocentre site so I can at least see the UKIE and Euro models on the customer side.