Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:21 am**

Continue winter storm disco here. I left the date range a bit wide due to timing differences on the models.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:30 am**

Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already!

Hope you did not jinx it.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:32 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:30 am Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already! Hope you did not jinx it.

I will accept the rotten tomatoes should that be the case

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:35 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:32 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:30 am Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already! Hope you did not jinx it.
I will accept the rotten tomatoes should that be the case

Fair enough. It'll be interesting once this gets into the NAM's range here shortly.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:37 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:35 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:32 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:30 am Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already! Hope you did not jinx it.
I will accept the rotten tomatoes should that be the case
Fair enough. It'll be interesting once this gets into the NAM's range here shortly.

Agreed. The higher-res models are always more helpful in sniffing out where the heavier bands may be.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:24 am**

The GFS is running now.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:32 am**

Another item is we have a cold front late on Wednesday and early Thursday. Though not real strong it does help bring in some colder air and that is important ahead of a bigger system.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:40 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:32 am Another item is we have a cold front late on Wednesday and early Thursday. Though not real strong it does help bring in some colder air and that is important ahead of a bigger system.

100% correct Tim... great post!

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:47 am**

In addition to what Tim just posted, the strength and position of the high behind that cold front for later this week, also needs to be watched. That will tell us ultimately how far north the precip shield will come for this weekend.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:50 am**

1029mb high centered over west-central Ohio at hr 60.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:52 am**

1031 MB over Eastern WVA at 72 hours.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:59 am**

Looking very similar to 06z thus far.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:00 am**

This is one of those nail biters whereas everything seems to come together right over us. Probably will see some changes continue. Minor little tweaks here and there.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:00 am**

This is going to be a solid hit.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:01 am**

Looks like around 0.50" liquid. Nice.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:02 am**

Decent run IMO on the 12Z GFS. I like the slower decay of the primary. That will help us out. 0.54" QPF at CVG.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:03 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:02 am Decent run IMO on the 12Z GFS. I like the slower decay of the primary. That will help us out. 0.54" QPF at CVG.

Exactly as I mentioned earlier. These things tend to slow down a bit when an energy transfer is involved.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:06 am**

Bonus flakes on Sunday as a trough swings through.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:09 am**

things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:10 am**

Canadian is almost identical with the placement of the snow.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:11 am**

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:03 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:02 am Decent run IMO on the 12Z GFS. I like the slower decay of the primary. That will help us out. 0.54" QPF at CVG.
Exactly as I mentioned earlier. These things tend to slow down a bit when an energy transfer is involved.

Yes Sir! Would love to see the 12Z GFS's solution pan out.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:11 am**

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:09 am things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.

It's been a long time since we've had a decent snowfall impact both of our locations. This could be one of those rare times.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:20 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:11 am
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:09 am things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.
It's been a long time since we've had a decent snowfall impact both of our locations. This could be one of those rare times.

Jan 96.....

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:21 am**

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:20 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:11 am
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:09 am things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.
It's been a long time since we've had a decent snowfall impact both of our locations. This could be one of those rare times.
Jan 96.....

Yep! This system reminds me of that just a mini version of course.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:21 am**

Because of marginal thermals, ratios will be <10:1. Just something to keep in mind. Total concrete.

Absolute Vorticity

1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

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Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024