Absolute Vorticity

Might as well get the November thread started. We will start the month off on the colder side. A few of you may even see a few flakes Tues night / Wed time period next week with the upper trough. I favor locations along / N of I-70 at this point for the best chance. No accum even if this occurs is expected. The growing season also comes to an end next week. Lows in the mid to upper 20s looks very likely for Wed and Thurs mornings next week. Highs in the low to mid 40s Wed, near 50 Thurs as the warming trend begins.

How long does the warming trend last remains to be seen. I also think our rain chances get a little more frequent with cold air poised to our North and NW and the warmest air to our south. I don't expect a torch pattern but some days above normal are likely. Hopefully we will continue to see much needed rainfall as we get deeper into Fall and approach winter.

After the big cold spell next week and with a zonal flow , I think the mid section of the country takes a week or so off in the significant weather department for the start of week 2. The west coast should see moisture return at that time and remains to be seen if those waves can develop systems past the Rockies toward mid month for us

ILN has snow showers in my zone forecast product. Not that I am expecting to see a single flake next week mind you, but it's like a "rite of passage" so to speak.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. unseasonably cold with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Unseasonably cold with highs in the mid 40s. Chance of snow 30 percent.

And for G'ville

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Cold with lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Wednesday
Partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Cold with highs in the lower 40s. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Tues night into Wed is the best chance for flakes. The further north one goes in our forecast area, the better chance you will have at seeing the first flakes of the season. That is all I am expecting is flakes. I would be pleasantly surprised if we see any this far south in the Cincy area. From a modeling standpoint Euro is north. GFS is a bit further south down into the N Cincy burbs. CMC is the most aggressive for everyone as has been the case all along. We'll see!

After the cold snap, we are quiet for a bit as we slowly moderate. Could get close to 60 degrees again by next Friday. The next system of significance looks to arrive around Election Day. That's along ways out of course and subject to change.

Good Morning from the north. Cloudy and kept temps in the mid-30's. Expected high today of 38 so a forecast we see quite often in the winter after a cold front. Hope to see at least some snowflakes later today but best shot is Halloween. November looks busier in the weather department.

Tim... for Wausau (CWA), the 6Z GFS gives you 0.04" of QPF Mon night into early Tues for snow.

TUE 06Z 31-OCT -2.1 -9.0 1015 92 99 0.02 529 517
TUE 12Z 31-OCT -4.2 -10.5 1017 86 84 0.02 525 511

6Z Euro is much more robust and later timing too. More of a Tues morning affair.

TUE 12Z 31-OCT -1.6 -8.9 1016 80 99 0.08 531 518
TUE 18Z 31-OCT 0.9 -9.0 1019 61 92 0.16 532 516
WED 00Z 01-NOV -0.8 -9.8 1024 58 31 0.01 538 519

12Z NAM just started running so we'll see what it says shortly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 9:49 am Tim... for Wausau (CWA), the 6Z GFS gives you 0.04" of QPF Mon night into early Tues for snow.

TUE 06Z 31-OCT -2.1 -9.0 1015 92 99 0.02 529 517
TUE 12Z 31-OCT -4.2 -10.5 1017 86 84 0.02 525 511

6Z Euro is much more robust and later timing too. More of a Tues morning affair.

TUE 12Z 31-OCT -1.6 -8.9 1016 80 99 0.08 531 518
TUE 18Z 31-OCT 0.9 -9.0 1019 61 92 0.16 532 516
WED 00Z 01-NOV -0.8 -9.8 1024 58 31 0.01 538 519

12Z NAM just started running so we'll see what it says shortly.

Thanks Les. I will no doubt post pics if the snow starts to fall. Ground is still rather warm up here but would not be surprised to see some light coatings on grassy surfaces. Love this time of year and just getting a head start coming up here lol

You're welcome Tim! Timing will be everything and for accumulations, you want this thing to come in while it is still dark outside or early morning. Same kind of deal for us down here when we get early and late season snows.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 9:40 am Good Morning from the north. Cloudy and kept temps in the mid-30's. Expected high today of 38 so a forecast we see quite often in the winter after a cold front. Hope to see at least some snowflakes later today but best shot is Halloween. November looks busier in the weather department.

Hey Tim, the Packers (2-4) host the Vikings (3-4) at noon CT with a chance of rain / snow mix and topping out at around 40 degrees!

Wausau baby!

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the lower 20s.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the middle 30s.

12Z GFS wants to bring in a renewed shot of cold air as we near the end of Week 1 in November. Even in the extended range it is a cooler pattern. Not sure if it's the GFS being the GFS, but we shall see what the ensembles look like from a 500 MB standpoint down the road.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 12:50 pm 12Z GFS wants to bring in a renewed shot of cold air as we near the end of Week 1 in November. Even in the extended range it is a cooler pattern. Not sure if it's the GFS being the GFS, but we shall see what the ensembles look like from a 500 MB standpoint down the road.

I saw this Les and even before that warming was not great but brought us back to normal at best. I do believe a more active pattern for sure and temp wise we just wait and see and could be your normal warm up a few days before a system and cool down afterwards. Sure models are having some problems since we still have tropical activity in this part of the world. Will give it several days and see what happens with the tropics and though I am not expecting a system to work itself to far north does not mean that a tropical system that loses its status will not bring heavy rain to parts of the southeast and maybe this far north.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 1:10 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 12:50 pm 12Z GFS wants to bring in a renewed shot of cold air as we near the end of Week 1 in November. Even in the extended range it is a cooler pattern. Not sure if it's the GFS being the GFS, but we shall see what the ensembles look like from a 500 MB standpoint down the road.

I saw this Les and even before that warming was not great but brought us back to normal at best. I do believe a more active pattern for sure and temp wise we just wait and see and could be your normal warm up a few days before a system and cool down afterwards. Sure models are having some problems since we still have tropical activity in this part of the world. Will give it several days and see what happens with the tropics and though I am not expecting a system to work itself to far north does not mean that a tropical system that loses its status will not bring heavy rain to parts of the southeast and maybe this far north.

Agreed... the tropical signal is still there. Whether it comes to fruition or not (as you said) remains to be seen. Until we get past that in the next couple of weeks, model solutions will continue to change.

Not a lot of blocking coming up on either end of spectrum, pac or Atlantic, so a progressive pattern into mid month

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 1:24 pm Not a lot of blocking coming up on either end of spectrum, pac or Atlantic, so a progressive pattern into mid month

I agree and one reason the back and forth with temps and one item is the GOM is finally being tapped like the upcoming system or systems. The GOM is loaded for bear and still one reason we could see an active severe season. Of course only time will tell.

Just need to keep the Hilton Head area dry and mild between November 11th and 17th. I have problems enough playing golf without the weather making it worse lol.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 1:24 pm Not a lot of blocking coming up on either end of spectrum, pac or Atlantic, so a progressive pattern into mid month

The blocking definitely weakens in the extended range with the Teleconnection indices by that time hovering around neutral. The MJO continues to be in a weak Phase 8 and 1 state as well so it's tough to say at this time what the actual driver of the pattern will be. I agree that it will end up being progressive as you mentioned for these reasons. We'll have to wait and see as usual what happens.

Good morning all! We start out November cold with maybe a few flakes as well. Up next, we warm up towards normal then we watch our next system which is a weak cool front next weekend. A more significant system arrives on Election Day in the afternoon and continues thru Wed the 8th with more rain. The pattern certainly is getting more active which is good.

Latest Cleveland weather service discussion for my region. This is for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
I live in northern Geauga County.

At this point, snowfall accumulations looks to be relatively minor
with most of the forecast area likely to see their first snowflakes,
and most of the snowbelt area likely to see at least a coating of
snow on grass and elevated surfaces. Highest amounts of 1-2" (with
locally higher amounts) are expected in northern Geauga, western
Ashtabula, and eastern/southern Erie, PA. It`s still within the
realm of possibility that the higher terrain areas observe higher
amounts. Probably won`t see too much snow sticking to roadways, and
even if it does, it won`t last as temperatures rise during the day
Wednesday.

Awesome Jeff! Good luck to you! Please post a pic if you do get some of that white gold. It would be a nice start to the season for the LES areas! I still believe that Tim in Wisc will also see his first flakes Mon night into early Tues. Then, that is the same upper level disturbance that has the chance to bring flakes to the OV late Tues into early Wed morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 8:35 am Good morning all! We start out November cold with maybe a few flakes as well. Up next, we warm up towards normal then we watch our next system which is a weak cool front next weekend. A more significant system arrives on Election Day in the afternoon and continues thru Wed the 8th with more rain. The pattern certainly is getting more active which is good.

It'll be interesting to see how much of a turnout at the polls in the OV given the forecast. Ohio e.g. is voting on an abortion issue and a rec marijuana one.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 1:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 8:35 am Good morning all! We start out November cold with maybe a few flakes as well. Up next, we warm up towards normal then we watch our next system which is a weak cool front next weekend. A more significant system arrives on Election Day in the afternoon and continues thru Wed the 8th with more rain. The pattern certainly is getting more active which is good.

It'll be interesting to see how much of a turnout at the polls in the OV given the forecast. Ohio e.g. is voting on an abortion issue and a rec marijuana one.

It depends on the model. CMC and Euro show a strong t-storm chance and a snow storm for Tim if he is still in Wisc at that time. While the GFS is much less amplified with that particular system.

12Z Euro took a step towards the GFS today with the less amp'ed solution for the 11/7 - 11/8 system.

Good morning all! We are cold but quiet to begin November on Wed with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. We will warm back up towards normal by Friday and maybe a touch above with temps in the lower 60s by this weekend. A weak system is still possible on Sunday but I don't see a lot of moisture available with that front right now. We shall see what happens next week as models are not in agreement yet in terms of individual storm systems. Do we get little impulses moving thru on NW Flow or a bigger system? Stay tuned for forecast changes in regards to that.