Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 1:02 pm Not much going on rain wise from the 12Z GFS until this weekend. The boundary is too far to our SW for Thurs and Fri. It moves NE and gives us a better shot over the weekend.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 2:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 31, 2023 1:02 pm Not much going on rain wise from the 12Z GFS until this weekend. The boundary is too far to our SW for Thurs and Fri. It moves NE and gives us a better shot over the weekend.

Les I agree and next week as I mentioned before the trough in the east is trying to even out like I mentioned earlier and when that happens an if that is what happens you end up with near normal temps and some rain chances but systems will not stay around long so you will not see a 6 hour rain event but your normal early morning and then later afternoon thundershower and of course the coverage will be more spotty. Still not sold if that is what will happen because we know the pattern before the heat wave was a deeper trough in the east and these patterns do repeat. Hopefully we will no more once we get later in this week.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 7:33 pm Quite the setup for training storms for southeastern Iowa and Missouri. A corridor of 5-8”+ in 36 hours would not surprise me one bit

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:20 am 12Z HRRR keeps everything well SE of the area. The 12Z NAM on Thurs, clips CVG Land. Best rains still SW of us.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 7:25 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 01, 2023 7:33 pm Quite the setup for training storms for southeastern Iowa and Missouri. A corridor of 5-8”+ in 36 hours would not surprise me one bit

Totally agree. Radar loop shows that area getting slammed all night and it still is ongoing this morning. Meanwhile for us, the nice weather continues.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:20 am 12Z HRRR keeps everything well SE of the area. The 12Z NAM on Thurs, clips CVG Land. Best rains still SW of us.

No doubt the latest NAM went further south but what we have seen in the models in the recent month or so is every 12 hours they tend to switch back and forth on where the rains set up. This seems to happen with many systems and not sure what is in the models that make them change quite often. We see this more in the winter time but far less during the summer. The waves over the next few days like I mentioned are full of moisture so if you get in on one of these bands it can rain quite hard for a period of time. I still believe the most likely situation for us is a shower or thundershower on Thursday and then we see a band move through late Thursday and early Friday but it still looks like we are on the northeast edge so this could be where Wilmington,Ohio get zero and Warsaw,Ky gets over an 1 inch. That puts the local area in the 0-1 inch forecast and really that is just watching the radar later on Thursday. Good thing is we should see some high clouds today that keeps temps down by a degree or two and Thursday thicker clouds should arrive later in the day and this will also keep temps down a degree or two but the humidity should increase somewhat but nothing horrible. No extended heat in the forecast over the next few weeks and maybe we see a 89 or 90 ahead of a front but with the expected rains to the southwest this is sort of a border that protects us from the heat coming in from the southwest but it may get hotter in the southeast USA and that heat will try to move this way but already models show a few cold front moving in and more like late August than early August.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:14 pm I agree about the long term Les and really many times when you have a strengthening El Nino in the summer the August through October can see many more cold fronts than usual and less in the way of tropical activity near the USA. Again its only the 2nd day of August but like you mentioned getting long term heat is going to get tougher and tougher the more we head towards fall. Concerning Thursday and still believe you can get a shower of thundershower during the day but isolated and then with the wave pushing across the Ohio Valley a more widespread rain is likely. Yes we are on the northeast side and sticking to my 0-1 inch call locally and yes further northeast may see zero and folks to the southwest over 1 inch. Just to close of a call to say we don't have a chance for any 3-6 hour stretch of rainfall and that is why I try and tell folks just look at the radar on Thursday morning and if you see more rain in the Indy area then chances will go up but if the rainfall is located in southern Indiana then chances will be less.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 1:44 pm Les we are on the same page but we are probably about 50 miles different on where some heavier rains may fall on Thursday. Sort of watching the radar and it seems to me the heaviest rains have shifted a hair further northeast than models were showing. Again this could just be a short term shift or do we see this continue later today and overnight. Still have some decent heat in the southern plains and its early August so I tend to forecast a little further north than models show plus with a low pressure that may stay the same strength I can see the rain shield a tad further north. Again we are only talking 50 miles but it could mean the difference between a dry Thursday for somebody or a nice light to moderate rain at times.