Absolute Vorticity

July 1st which is this coming Sat, looks to start off on a possible stormy note as the MCS Train gets rolling. The first event is covered in the June thread, this Thurs night then we'll switch gears to this thread to cover this weekend, Independence Day, etc. and beyond.

The new Euro run is in and it's got scattered action midday Sat and then we get hammered with another MCS later Sat night.

T-storm chances for Sat July 1st are still the forecast focus. Sunday is much drier at this time for those with weekend plans.

The overnight GFS has late morning to early afternoon action on Sat then dry for fireworks time with another complex overnight. The Euro is virtually doing the same thing so that would b3e nice for my party on Sat.

Good morning. Just looking ahead to July and past the holiday weekend. One big thing the models are showing is above normal rainfall in the southern plains. This is one way to break an heat spell. Does the heat then expand further west or east and that is something we need to watch or is it an even split and we get hot but not overly out of hand. The southern plains heat could be ended by a tropical system as well and though early in the season they tend to form earlier in the season during an El Nino so will see if that holds true.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 8:43 am The overnight GFS has late morning to early afternoon action on Sat then dry for fireworks time with another complex overnight. The Euro is virtually doing the same thing so that would b3e nice for my party on Sat.

Great to hear Bro!

Tim's post about timing in the June thread applies here in this thread too.

Models are starting to show a 50/.50 chance Fri night and Sat then a higher chance now on Sunday. Smaller chances still for Monday and the 4th itself. Temp wise could see U80s the 1sy day of July with 80s thereafter.

I will finally use the July Discussion lol. Saying that I do want to mentioned that you can really feel the moisture in the air this morning. Dew point not much different than yesterday and sitting just under 70 degrees but with added water in the ground I can tell the difference. I saw a few dew points in southern Missouri yesterday that hit 81 so that is even high for that area. The dew points should remain in the upper 60's and maybe lower 70's today so yes we have enough fuel to feed any storms.

Okay, so on to the forecast with U80s to near 90 possible the next couplie of days. Storm chances look better overnight into early tomorrow. Then again, slight chances tomorrow with the better chances coming overnight. Sunday still looking like the highest chances for daytime t-storms and that wraps up early next week with only minimal chances thereafter. Temps next week continue in the U80s to near 90 category.

Les I am starting to worry about Saturday evening in terms of some strong storms. I hope they wait until after midnight but as the pattern is moving slowly but steady to the east we may be in line between 4-10pm on Saturday. Hope I am wrong but we still have time to see if we can get that complex on Saturday to slow down.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 2:58 pm Les I am starting to worry about Saturday evening in terms of some strong storms. I hope they wait until after midnight but as the pattern is moving slowly but steady to the east we may be in line between 4-10pm on Saturday. Hope I am wrong but we still have time to see if we can get that complex on Saturday to slow down.

Tim after 11pm is even good for me. Between 4-10pm would be an ultimate disaster. We really won't know until we see what happens tonight into tomorrow morning. Then we should have a better idea.

18Z HRRR does bring in storms around 11pm Sat evening so that solution would be fine for me. Anything earlier as I mentioned would be horrible.

18Z NAM has a complex in the wee hours of the morning tonight into early tomorrow then we're good until the wee hours of Sat night and we go it again. I'd be totally cool with an outcome like that.

Maybe we have something going here, Developing storms near Indy which no models had. We have good shear in place and lapse rates, let’s see if it expands or keeps its strength heading east southeast.

I picked up another 0.58" overnight. 0.81" from the night before, for a total currently of 1.36" More is on the way too. Just hope this gets it out of its system for my party this afternoon. Man I know we need the rain but for me this sucks!

Dome holding pretty good here . Hope it crashes and burns later this morning

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 7:42 am I picked up another 0.58" overnight. 0.81" from the night before, for a total currently of 1.36" More is on the way too. Just hope this gets it out of its system for my party this afternoon. Man I know we need the rain but for me this sucks!

Quit hogging all the rain, Send some of that crap out here to the boonies would you

.25 overbite.
Looks like more coming.
Go Reds!

Good Morning and I am the guy in between in terms of rainfall as 0.36 fell overnight. Bgoney I believe your time is coming as the weather pattern is shifting each day a little further east and hopefully you cash in this morning and early afternoon. Les I am rooting for a drier period later this afternoon and evening. Hopefully it will like yesterday when I had the guys over and we were outside from 6pm to around 1230a and then the rain started plus the heat of day sort of left after about 8pm last night. Models have been showing a stronger wave on Sunday for days and we will see if this holds true. Sometimes the systems ahead of the so called main one takes away from the bigger one and that becomes a bust. I agree we need the rain and my lawn and plants looked wonderful.

Well six months in the books and for temps we are about 2 degrees above average so we did slow down the above normal temps. Precip we area several inches below normal and even greater when it came to spring. We are starting to catch up and many folks who have been having the short term drought will improve greatly. I really thought June into mid-July would be much warmer but the heat was contained in the southern plains and without expanding you get a smaller area that bakes like Texas has in the past month. Good thing for them we are getting back to more normal heat in Texas in early July.

Should be an interesting day as we get this first wave to move through and wait for development out west. Looking towards Illinois today as they are starting to get the tail end of this first batch. They should have plenty of time to recover and this is a place I believe storms will blossom later today. How fast they move in here is the question that is hard to answer as any ridging we had over the past few days is east of here so the jet can move storms quite swiftly later today. The HRRR model seems to have a somewhat better handle over the past few days though not perfect by any means. I understand as we have these complexes come through and finally end the atmosphere is looking for another place to pick up the activity. Sort of a moving target but once the atmosphere latches on it can create quite the complex of storms. So far not to severe but my gut tells me over the next 36 hours as we get into the heart of these complexes strong storms most likely and even to severe weather which would be mainly strong winds and heavy rains in a short period

Next round moving in to the local tri-state. Holding together though somewhat weaker as it moves in. Many folks could see another 1/4 inch and some maybe a little higher in a heavy band. How long does it take for the clouds to move out later today and how unstable to we become. Just questions an the answers will probably be known somewhat in the early afternoon. I know for July 1st at 9am that it is rather dark but the rainfall is needed so not complaining to much.

Having trouble getting started. Only .15" so far.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 8:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 7:42 am I picked up another 0.58" overnight. 0.81" from the night before, for a total currently of 1.36" More is on the way too. Just hope this gets it out of its system for my party this afternoon. Man I know we need the rain but for me this sucks!

Quit hogging all the rain, Send some of that crap out here to the boonies would you

I wish I could! I'm good for a week now!