Absolute Vorticity

Continue discussion here.

When looking at a few sites I see that this is gonna form either right over or just to the west of us. Thoughts?

Been a while since I’ve seen SRH values modeled so high for our region

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:45 am Been a while since I’ve seen SRH values modeled so high for our region

I agree and the chances for some super cells that form a tornado plus some rather big hail is possible. Many times in spring you see a low pressure heading from southwest to northeast but this one is coming from the upper plains to lower Michigan and is rather strong for late June standards. You these more often in the upper mid-west heading over to the northeast in later July and August ant that is when you see their peak time for severe weather. Late June is really not a peak time for us but this system is one that has some teeth. You can see those dew points already spiking to the southwest as Paducah has a dew of 75 which is 12 degrees higher than overnight. Getting that surge of the higher dew points is a big factor today and lets see how high we get here later today.

today would be a good day to start chasing if you live in the OV you could be the next Reed Timmer

St. Louis is at 92, Indy at 82, and Hamilton is at 76 degrees already. The TORCON is currently at 5 for us. This doesn't bode well.

New update has a bullseye right over the tri-state. Also SPC introduced a hatched significant wind threat for the area in this update.

Starting to see more blue in the sky so temps should head up quickly over the next 3-4 hours

Tornado watch likely to our NW shortly

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:38 pm Tornado watch likely to our NW shortly

Just issued. Mentions wind-driven very large hail. No thanks lol!

Storms are developing much sooner upstream than early modeling depicted. A lot of data didn’t even have storms in western Indiana. 40 and 50kt shear closing in on cvgland

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:28 pm Storms are developing much sooner upstream than early modeling depicted. A lot of data didn’t even have storms in western Indiana. 40 and 50kt shear closing in on cvgland

In this type of a setup it is almost always sooner than models indicate given the high instability and ease of reaching the convective temp.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:28 pm Storms are developing much sooner upstream than early modeling depicted. A lot of data didn’t even have storms in western Indiana. 40 and 50kt shear closing in on cvgland

I agree and hrrr was much further east. I believe most of us thought it would develop further west and with the overnight convection moved in a little quicker and got out of the area a few quicker makes a big difference plus a nice strong south wind is slowing down the system as well

Most of the clouds are now exiting the immediate tristate region. Temperatures should begin to spike quickly now. Looks as if the atmosphere is going to be very primed by the time this complex of storms hits later on.

Hail parameters are crazy to our west , which we will have this evening. I think destructive hail is going to be a major issue along with winds of course

dce wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:38 pm Most of the clouds are now exiting the immediate tristate region. Temperatures should begin to spike quickly now. Looks as if the atmosphere is going to be very primed by the time this complex of storms hits later on.

Heat index in western Ky at 105 in Paducah and near 100 in Owensboro and though we don't get that high I still believe before all is said and done we are above 95. What a great satellite and you can see the storms over western Indiana and that imo looks like a true tornado set up. Like Bgoney mentioned as well Hail looks very likely and of course strong winds and yes heavy downpours.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:46 pm Hail parameters are crazy to our west , which we will have this evening. I think destructive hail is going to be a major issue along with winds of course

I made note of hail the size of baseballs on my FB post. Won’t be widespread, but wouldn’t surprise me if we see a report or two that big somewhere in the tri-state (best threat west of 75).

For those wondering, we will be under a new watch within the next couple of hours.

You can see the storms over northern Indiana and southwest Michigan moving rather quickly and you are getting some severe thunderstorm warnings. Further south over we are seeing several individual cells and these are ones that can produce tornado's before the cells jell into more of a line and then usually the tornado threat goes down somewhat but never goes away completely.

First tornado warning issued this afternoon and is about half way between Kokomo and Indy. Expect several more this afternoon

Over the past 1/2 hour I can just feel the humidity going up and though sitting in AC I have started to sweat. Beautiful sunny sky with quite a bit of wind energy as we wait for the severe weather to get in here late afternoon/early evening. Of course this time of year daylight hours are long so you continue to get heating for several more hours.

Second tornado warning southeast of Terra Haute. These storms also seem to be producing hail like Bgoney has talked about. Surprised the NWS has not issued watches for the local area and maybe they are deciding which direction to go and is that tornado or severe storm watch.

The NWS at Louisville has issued a Tornado watch until 8pm for much of the area and still waiting on CVG.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:02 pm The NWS at Louisville has issued a Tornado watch until 8pm for much of the area and still waiting on CVG.

I'm probably out of the loop. I know Norman Oklahoma used to issue all severe thunderstorm and tornado watches. Has that now changed?