Page 1 of 19
June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue May 30, 2023 3:18 pm
by tron777
The big topics of the upcoming summer will be our current dryness and the ongoing development of El Nino and how it impacts the overall pattern not only for us locally but for the tropical season as well. Our 90 degree contest entry period is coming to a close, so don't forget to get involved there.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:46 am
by wrmwxfreak
Hello, all!
I’m getting married on June 10th! I would live your early predictions on the weather that day in Loveland, Ohio, as it is supposed to be an outdoor ceremony. Thanks so much!
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 7:30 am
by tron777
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 5:46 am
Hello, all!
I’m getting married on June 10th! I would live your early predictions on the weather that day in Loveland, Ohio, as it is supposed to be an outdoor ceremony. Thanks so much!
Congrats to you Casie! A long ways off mind you but the latest GFS shows dry weather and highs in the lower 80s. Hope that holds!
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 7:31 am
by tron777
We may go another 7-10 days without rain on top of the 10 days we've already gone (11 would be counting today). Yikes!
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 3:54 pm
by tron777
At CVG over the next 16 days, the 12Z GFS only has a total of 0.06" of rain. Wow... The 12Z Euro has 0.04" over the next 10 days. Could we go 20 or 25 days plus without rain? Very possible...
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 4:14 pm
by winterstormjoe
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 3:54 pm
At CVG over the next 16 days, the 12Z GFS only has a total of 0.06" of rain. Wow... The 12Z Euro has 0.04" over the next 10 days. Could we go 20 or 25 days plus without rain? Very possible...
Maybe, just maybe my June 3.75 rain prediction will fall in the last half of the month. Lol
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 4:18 pm
by tron777
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 4:14 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 3:54 pm
At CVG over the next 16 days, the 12Z GFS only has a total of 0.06" of rain. Wow... The 12Z Euro has 0.04" over the next 10 days. Could we go 20 or 25 days plus without rain? Very possible...
Maybe, just maybe my June 3.75 rain prediction will fall in the last half of the month. Lol
It's looking like a big goose egg for the first half right now unless something changes that the models aren't seeing as of yet. Right now, I'd plan on it being dry and be pleasantly surprised if something does pan out.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 4:20 pm
by tron777
To crack the Top Ten Driest June list for CVG, #10 is 1.59" of total rain for the entire month back in 1963. What is the driest? 0.59" set back in 1944.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:55 pm
by Bgoney
Last decent rain was May 7. The current drought situation started immediately after , taking that to June 10th for now , we will speed to the top of driest stretches for the period
IMG_0328.jpeg
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:16 pm
by tron777
There's that 2007 again. We only have a few hours left to enter the contest and / or edit the guess.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:25 pm
by young pup
I might have some shots of rain this week after all. The Memorial Golf Tournament is being held.
Well, I will probably be missed and Dublin, Ohio will get nailed starting tomorrow.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:29 pm
by tron777
For now... the heat peaks Saturday then we slowly drop back thru the 80s into the lower 80s by Tues / Wed of next week. I would assume the heat will return at some point due to the lack of rain alone. We'll see!
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 7:24 pm
by MVWxObserver
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Wed May 31, 2023 5:46 am
Hello, all!
I’m getting married on June 10th! I would live your early predictions on the weather that day in Loveland, Ohio, as it is supposed to be an outdoor ceremony. Thanks so much!
Congratulations Casie!
I have a cousin who got married this past Sat in an outdoor ceremony north of Indy in Whitestown, IN.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 8:38 pm
by tron777
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 7:32 am
by tron777
Today begins Day #12 of dryness in a row for most folks as our sprinklers continue to run. We will continue to be dry for the foreseeable future. Thinking Fri and Sat have the best 90 chances for now.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 7:56 am
by tron777
We have an AV Double Birthday today! Let's all wish a
to: Angelika, snwyowl
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:44 am
by Angelika
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 7:56 am
We have an AV Double Birthday today! Let's all wish a
to: Angelika, snwyowl
Awww thank you!
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:16 am
by tron777
Angelika wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:44 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 7:56 am
We have an AV Double Birthday today! Let's all wish a
to: Angelika, snwyowl
Awww thank you!
You're welcome! Hope you have a great day, Ang!
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 11:59 am
by Bgoney
A foregone conclusion but here it is anyway
IMG_0333.jpeg
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:50 pm
by tron777
The question now becomes, what category will be in by the time things get turned around? Do we see a wetter Week 2 or 2nd half of the month period or not? A little too early to know for sure, but one thing is for certain. We need more moisture. Easterly / NE flow is low humidity which is nice but it also keeps us bone dry too.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:39 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:50 pm
The question now becomes, what category will be in by the time things get turned around? Do we see a wetter Week 2 or 2nd half of the month period or not? A little too early to know for sure, but one thing is for certain. We need more moisture. Easterly / NE flow is low humidity which is nice but it also keeps us bone dry too.
At least D1, drying will be rapid over the next 7-10 days, as you eluded to, lower DPs and humidity will make evaporation and Evapotranspiration much more efficient .
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:32 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:50 pm
The question now becomes, what category will be in by the time things get turned around? Do we see a wetter Week 2 or 2nd half of the month period or not? A little too early to know for sure, but one thing is for certain. We need more moisture. Easterly / NE flow is low humidity which is nice but it also keeps us bone dry too.
At least D1, drying will be rapid over the next 7-10 days, as you eluded to, lower DPs and humidity will make evaporation and Evapotranspiration much more efficient .
Completely agree. Great post!! Case in point for today... dews have mixed down to 58 as of the 4pm reading at CVG, temp of 86. Can't get any showers to form with this type of airmass as we all know.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:34 pm
by tron777
Most models basically are dry for the 1st 10 days of June. There is one or two 10-20% chances of showers in there too but anything decent, nope. Today's 12Z GFS looked more promising for rain after 6/12 but that is model fantasy land and we know that cannot be trusted this far out.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:46 pm
by tron777
88 today at CVG and in my hood. I am going with 90 tomorrow 92 Sat at its peak before we drop.
Re: June 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:20 pm
by MVWxObserver
