Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:01 am**

May is here and the Miller A-like winter storm is right on schedule. Stubborn blocking continues to rule the roost . Consistent normal or above normal temps nowhere in sight for the next 10 days. When does spring finally spring?

Posted: **Sun Apr 30, 2023 4:07 pm**

Thanks Bgoney for starting the new thread. Cut off low blues this week but the end of next week and next weekend so far are looking better with some sunshine and highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s. Perfect spring weather to me and for my Folks's Party!

Posted: **Sun Apr 30, 2023 6:08 pm**

I think we'll see drizzle and highs in the 40s for the first day of May. 50ish Tues, pray for 60 Wed then in the 60s Thurs and Fri. Can we crank it up into the 70s this weekend with a narrow ridge of high pressure between the boundary and the trough, cut off / cooler air over New England? All about timing and placement but so far, so good. Keeping my fingers and toes crossed.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 7:36 am**

Another rainy and gloomy morning out there. Showers off and on thru this evening with most folks staying in the 40s. Wind gusting to 40 mph also likely this afternoon. A morning shower Tues, otherwise continued breezy and cool, low 50s at best. Wed and Thurs are improving with a continued dry look heading into this weekend with the 70s making a return.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 7:39 am**

Good Morning and finally made it to March. Sorry I meant May as it seems like the 1st of March,. Les has the forecast covered for the week and hopefully the much needed improvement happens later this week. We are 1/3 of the way through the year and we are still 3 1/2 degrees above normal for temps which shows just how warm the winter was this year. Precip wise we are about 10p/c above normal but spring time rains have not been great and lets hope May and June we start to see more rainfall before summer sets in.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 8:07 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 7:39 am Good Morning and finally made it to March. Sorry I meant May as it seems like the 1st of March,. Les has the forecast covered for the week and hopefully the much needed improvement happens later this week. We are 1/3 of the way through the year and we are still 3 1/2 degrees above normal for temps which shows just how warm the winter was this year. Precip wise we are about 10p/c above normal but spring time rains have not been great and lets hope May and June we start to see more rainfall before summer sets in.

The only possible fly in the ointment I see is some GFS runs try and sneak a boundary in here for a rain chance Thurs / Fri of this week. I am keeping us dry attm, so hopefully I don't have to change that. Sat for the Derby I think is dry but we may have another system trying to sneak in for Sunday. It's a ways off so we'll have to wait and see. I am mainly concerned for a dry Sat and Fri would be nice too for prepping purposes.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 8:08 am**

CVG checking in with 0.16" total rainfall from over the weekend thru 8am this morning.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 8:17 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:08 am CVG checking in with 0.16" total rainfall from over the weekend thru 8am this morning.

Good Morning Les and that seems correct though some folks have received more but for the 4 day total between Saturday and Tuesday 1/4 to 1/2 seems the most likely outcome. Only thing that is hard to measure is hail and this can hurt totals somewhat but again the hail usually only last a few minutes and today less likely than Sunday. Though rainfall has not been great this spring we have counteract that with cool temps so soils remain wet for a longer period and other vegetation needs less water with the cooler temps. I know some of the longer term models show a cooler than normal May but I am not leaning that way and again sometimes longer term models have too much of the current weather in their models and that can skew the final output.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 8:23 am**

Dropped to 42 here this AM and up to 44 now. Rainfall of 0.38" over the weekend. Hoping for a rumble of thunder today to get me out of the May winter blues! LOL

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 8:25 am**

BTW the record low maximum temp at KDAY today is 50 so that will likely be toppled.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 8:59 am**

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 8:59 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:17 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:08 am CVG checking in with 0.16" total rainfall from over the weekend thru 8am this morning.
Good Morning Les and that seems correct though some folks have received more but for the 4 day total between Saturday and Tuesday 1/4 to 1/2 seems the most likely outcome. Only thing that is hard to measure is hail and this can hurt totals somewhat but again the hail usually only last a few minutes and today less likely than Sunday. Though rainfall has not been great this spring we have counteract that with cool temps so soils remain wet for a longer period and other vegetation needs less water with the cooler temps. I know some of the longer term models show a cooler than normal May but I am not leaning that way and again sometimes longer term models have too much of the current weather in their models and that can skew the final output.

Not sure about MBY but I did see some small hail in Milford yesterday.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 9:01 am**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:25 am BTW the record low maximum temp at KDAY today is 50 so that will likely be toppled.

46 from 1909 is CVG's record. 43 I think is the max so far since midnight. Not sure if we will break it but it'll be miserable either way.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 1:38 pm**

12z GFS going all-in for the switch to summer. It has the MJO gliding into 6 which is a very warm phase for us this time of year.

GEFS.png

gfs-deterministic-KCVG-daily_tmin_tmax-2942400.png

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 2:18 pm**

Great post Mike! I talked about this back in the April thread that the MJO had a chance to get into those warmer phases after 5/10. That post looks to be rock solid at this time. We should get into some more t-storm action as in stronger storms by then once we can get some Gulf warmth and moisture involved into the pattern. Trev should come out of hiding by then one would think also.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 2:19 pm**

CVG maxed out at 48 before dropping back to 46, so no record cold high is expected here anyway for today.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 2:21 pm**

For the green thumbs out there.... IMO once we get past this week, I'd plant away! Could see an upper 30 degree morning Thurs morning of this week. Then after that, I personally believe we're in the clear for frost until Fall. I will plant Mother's Day weekend due to the Big 50th party going on this weekend... otherwise I'd be planting then.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 2:51 pm**

Looks like KDAY has so far topped out at 45. It's up to 47 in my hood. Rainfall only 0.07" today - seems like a lot more than that though. LOL

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 3:00 pm**

Bonafide snowflakes at times here in Sidney. When the precip rate picks up it turns to snow. Crazy to see in May. It must be very cold just above the surface!

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 3:40 pm**

Having some flakes mixing in here in G'ville.

Currently 36 here.

Glad the Redlegs are in San Diego for a 3 game series as this winter-like ducky weather wouldn't be as suitable.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 3:45 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 2:21 pm For the green thumbs out there.... IMO once we get past this week, I'd plant away! Could see an upper 30 degree morning Thurs morning of this week. Then after that, I personally believe we're in the clear for frost until Fall. I will plant Mother's Day weekend due to the Big 50th party going on this weekend... otherwise I'd be planting then.

MDW makes more sense for the heat loving veggies, peppers, tomatoes, cucumbers etc. that will give more time for the ground temps to warm. Putting those plants in with less than ideal ground temps will set them back and give one zero advantage of planting “early “. I plan on using black plastic or tarp on the ground to speed up the warming

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 4:27 pm**

Looks like we’re in for quite a few hours of rain since it’s pivoting right over Cvgland

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 4:59 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 3:45 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 2:21 pm For the green thumbs out there.... IMO once we get past this week, I'd plant away! Could see an upper 30 degree morning Thurs morning of this week. Then after that, I personally believe we're in the clear for frost until Fall. I will plant Mother's Day weekend due to the Big 50th party going on this weekend... otherwise I'd be planting then.
MDW makes more sense for the heat loving veggies, peppers, tomatoes, cucumbers etc. that will give more time for the ground temps to warm. Putting those plants in with less than ideal ground temps will set them back and give one zero advantage of planting “early “. I plan on using black plastic or tarp on the ground to speed up the warming

Great idea! Thank you.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 4:59 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 4:27 pm Looks like we’re in for quite a few hours of rain since it’s pivoting right over Cvgland

Just started raining lightly here again.

Posted: **Mon May 01, 2023 5:24 pm**

Been raining steadily all day here - up to 0.21" for the day and temp down to 42.

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