Absolute Vorticity

We're close enough to April to begin the thread now for the month and we look to continue where March left off with strong systems and severe wx chances. April looks like a busy month too. The action begins with us spiking into the 70s on Monday of next week followed by the severe chance on Tues the 4th. SPC has a 15% risk area outlined already just SW of Cincy.

Average temp for feb was 53.4 , average temp for March 53.2.

Frost ths morning is on the extreme side

12Z Euro has a frontal passage Wed afternoon and evening. So we'll have to see which model wins out with regards to the timing. Tues or Wed?

We're in here Trev! This is carried over from the March thread.

So anyway, Euro gets dews into the 60s (63-64) at CVG for next Wed afternoon. CAPE values of 1200, maybe 1500 in the West. Worth watching.

SPC Day 6 Outlook for Tues is targeting the same areas that are under the gun for Friday of this week.

I am with Trev - really honing in on the outbreak potential next week. More CAPE to play with!

That's looking awful noisy next week. Should see a few days in the 70s combined with 60 degree dews, should add a bit of summer to the air which will help. We just have to hope for better frontal timing and we should be in!

Still along ways from next weeks system and looks more like a Tuesday/Wednesday time period. Again just looking at how this sets up and imo more of a thunder/lightning show with heavy rain and less wind/tornado. Plenty of time to see how this plays out but just my early thoughts on this system.

So, more nasty winds on Saturday...I just cleaned up a mess from a big branch that fell on the backyard fence and dented it.

I hope we can save some of these breezes when it's in the 90's and humid come July/August! Lol

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 10:43 am So, more nasty winds on Saturday...I just cleaned up a mess from a big branch that fell on the backyard fence and dented it.

I hope we can save some of these breezes when it's in the 90's and humid come July/August! Lol

You know we'll be dying for a breeze then!

Euro has sped up the frontal timing to Wed morning so that's no good. We want max heating of course. Plenty of time for models to iron this out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:34 pm Euro has sped up the frontal timing to Wed morning so that's no good. We want max heating of course. Plenty of time for models to iron this out.

That could end up being an overnight thunder and lightning show with heavy rain instead of a major severe outbreak if the timing was 6-10 hours later

18Z GFS is at the end other of the spectrum. Much later, sometime overnight Wed.

So we kick off April folks tomorrow with 50 mph wind gusts and some sun. Then clouds in the afternoon and falling temps thru the 40s with possible rain showers / snow flake. Woo freaking hoo! A much better day on Sunday and even Monday as the 70s return. Summer like next week with a few more days in the 70s along with t-storm chances Tues and more likely Wed. Frontal boundary timing is the missing piece to know how high our severe threat will go. Right now, frontal timing is not good. 15% to our West and 30% over MO again. That could change since we are several days away.

Just in case anyone missed it:

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central,
Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

It's not like we haven't seen one of these for like the 100th time already this year. 2023... one of the windier first third of a year that I can ever remember.

Man Tuesday keeps looking more dangerous as the model runs refresh......

Still though, you can clearly see the highest threat is too our West based on those maps. We need better frontal timing. That is the only issue I can see thus far.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 8:18 am Still though, you can clearly see the highest threat is too our West based on those maps. We need better frontal timing. That is the only issue I can see thus far.

Correct - will be curious to see if any shifts happen in the coming days.

The 6Z GFS looked a little better in that regard. The front comes in and lays down late Monday into early Tues so a shot then for storms. Then it lifts north as the main front comes in Wed evening. That looks better for SE of I-71 Counties. CAPE gets to around 1200 J/KG there.

What will the forecast be for Tues 4/4 that morning? I have an appt at UC Health in West Chester at 10 o'clock that day.

For Tues 4/4 ...

A shame some of the same hard hit areas from Fri are under the 30% zone.

Good Afternoon and a lovely 1st day of April lol. Getting cold quickly as well and with the wind it feels horrible. Main event is on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Imo this event looks more severe than the one we just went through. More fuel this time and what I mean is the sun. We may have less overall stronger winds but thunderstorms with possible tornado's seem very likely. Still a few days to get into the exact placement of the most likely outbreak but keeping as quite busy on the forum

Not too bad outside this afternoon. So much nicer without that blasted wind!

Currently for Tues ...

HAPPY 51ST BIRTHDAY DOUG!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!