Absolute Vorticity

It's way early, but I've been noticing a potential tropical or subtropical entity in the long range of the GFS over the last few runs. Figured I'd just go on ahead and start up the thread for this year.

The GFS, already creating fantasy systems. I do wonder how active or inactive the season maybe with the oncoming El Nino. Expectations are for a quiet season. Who knows though. As you said Trev, way early!

Your 2023 Names for the new season:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... =hp-slot-4

Some changes for the 2023 season.

692
NOUS41 KNHC 111500
PNSNHC

Public Information Statement
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023

...NHC Determines That a Subtropical Storm Formed in the Atlantic
Basin in Mid-January 2023...

Through the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems in
the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) area of responsibility, NHC
hurricane specialists have determined that an area of low pressure
that formed off the northeastern coast of the United States in
mid-January should be designated as a subtropical storm. Specific
information on the justification for the subtropical storm
designation, as well as the system's synoptic history and impacts,
will be available in a Tropical Cyclone Report, which will likely be
issued during the next couple of months.

This subtropical storm is being numbered as the first cyclone of
2023 in the Atlantic basin and will be given AL012023 as its system
ID. As a result, the next system that forms in 2023 in the Atlantic
basin will be designated as AL022023, and advisories will be issued
in AWIPS bin 2 (e.g., Public Advisories will be issued under AWIPS
header TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC). If the system begins as
a tropical depression, then it would be given the designation
'TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO', and if it becomes a tropical storm, it
would be given the name 'ARLENE'.

National Weather Service policy (through NWS Instruction 10-607,
Section 1) allows for marginal subtropical systems to be handled in
real-time as non-tropical gale or storm events in NWS High Seas
Forecast products. This was the procedure followed for the unnamed
subtropical storm in mid-January. However, the lack of real-time
issuance of advisories does not preclude NHC from retroactively
designating these systems as a subtropical cyclones in
post-analysis, if necessary.


$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit

TD 2 in the Gulf may become our first TS of the season. Arlene anyone?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.s ... t#contents

https://www.whio.com/news/trending/trop ... CAMLQKK4I/

Enter Arlene!

We've got a 90% chance of a depression forming soon with a system out in the Atlantic. Bret is likely to develop over the next several days. Guidance taking it West thru the Caribbean and into the Gulf potentially down the road.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:59 pm We've got a 90% chance of a depression forming soon with a system out in the Atlantic. Bret is likely to develop over the next several days. Guidance taking it West thru the Caribbean and into the Gulf potentially down the road.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Hey Les and it looks like some development over the next few days. Not sure the conditions will be able to this one going once it gets closer to the USA. We understand the waters are warm so getting development in that area is possible but my guess probably stays a tropical storm at best which of course can lead to some heavy rains and wind for places like Puerto Rico.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:59 pm We've got a 90% chance of a depression forming soon with a system out in the Atlantic. Bret is likely to develop over the next several days. Guidance taking it West thru the Caribbean and into the Gulf potentially down the road.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Hey Les and it looks like some development over the next few days. Not sure the conditions will be able to this one going once it gets closer to the USA. We understand the waters are warm so getting development in that area is possible but my guess probably stays a tropical storm at best which of course can lead to some heavy rains and wind for places like Puerto Rico.

A lot of the guidance his "Bret" becoming a hurricane in time. High end ceiling of a Cat 3 or major hurricane to just a strong TS on the low end seems to be the intensity range.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 5:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:59 pm We've got a 90% chance of a depression forming soon with a system out in the Atlantic. Bret is likely to develop over the next several days. Guidance taking it West thru the Caribbean and into the Gulf potentially down the road.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Hey Les and it looks like some development over the next few days. Not sure the conditions will be able to this one going once it gets closer to the USA. We understand the waters are warm so getting development in that area is possible but my guess probably stays a tropical storm at best which of course can lead to some heavy rains and wind for places like Puerto Rico.

A lot of the guidance his "Bret" becoming a hurricane in time. High end ceiling of a Cat 3 or major hurricane to just a strong TS on the low end seems to be the intensity range.

Will be fun to watch and I am going on the low end but again the range is high on the strength. My guess though even if it got to a CAT 3 it would lose strength before getting to close to the mainland.

We have a 100% chance now for development and a new wave behind it that has a 30 / 40% chance.

TS Bret has now formed per the NHC.

Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL STORM BRET FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.

The wave behind Bret now has a 70% chance in the next 5 days of development.

Meanwhile, a Bret update:

Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET CONTINUES WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 44.7W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Bret now has winds of 60 mph moving W at 14. The wave behind Bret now has an 80% chance of development.

Bret has winds of 70 moving W at 15. He should plow thru the Islands today and into the Caribbean. We also have TD #4 behind Bret with winds of 35 moving W at 12. This one should become TS Cindy before too long.

Bret has winds of 60 mph moving W thru the Caribbean Sea. GREAT JOB Tim! This system encountered shear and never could get out of TS status. Bret peaked with winds of 70. Eventually, Bret will run into Mexico and we can say good-bye to him.

TS Cindy has winds of 50 mph moving WNW at 16. She will pass NW of the islands and eventually be positioned NE of the Bahamas as a depression. No major impacts currently are expected from Cindy and she will not become a hurricane, pretty much like Bret.

Bret has winds of 40 moving W at 15. Cindy is moving WNW at 16 with winds of 60 mph this morning.

Bret is now gone. Cindy has winds of 50 mph moving WNW at 21. In the next day or two we can say good bye to this one also.

We've got a wave well NE of Bermuda that has a 30% chance in the next 48 hours / 50% chance of development in the next 5 days. This system has a small window to form as it moves East.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Sub TS Don has winds of 50 mph moving N at 5. This system is out in the middle of nowhere in the Atlantic and will do a loop de loop and not become a problem at this time.

Don is still on the map about ready to make his weak exit into the North Atlantic. A new wave that once looked like it had promise, is now down to a 20% chance as it enters the Caribbean this week. SAL, dry air and wind shear is not allowing this wave to get going.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 24, 2023 7:37 am Don is still on the map about ready to make his weak exit into the North Atlantic. A new wave that once looked like it had promise, is now down to a 20% chance as it enters the Caribbean this week. SAL, dry air and wind shear is not allowing this wave to get going.

And now 10% there in fizzleville.

There's another wave East of the Bahamas that the NHC is monitoring and it too only has a 20% chance in the next 5 days. For now... SAL, shear, dry air, and El Nino is not allowing the Atlantic season to take off. Still a lot of time left mind you, but I would honestly expect a below avg season despite everything you might be reading online.

We have a new wave now near the Cape Verde Islands that has a 30% chance in the next 5 days of development. Is this the storm that can make it across and develop? GFS keeps showing a fantasy hurricane near the East Coast during the 1st week of August.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2