Absolute Vorticity

Wanted to wait for the EU to come in. For the first time in a long time it is showing that Arctic air will return in the first week of February. For now , showing a cutter with a very similar track of today's event to open the month , but with much colder arctic air behind it. A week out so much TBD. Does arctic air arrive earlier to meet the low? Does a second low form on the tail end of the arctic front? Ready for February?

Thanks for starting this thread Bgoney! I'll get 'er pinned!

February has no doubt been the best month for winter weather around here for several years. Will that continue this year. Stay tune for a wild ride is my guess.

Over the past few months we have seen two really decent shots of cold air with one in the middle of November and one before Christmas. The next one looks to arrive later next week. So far this season though these cold spells have been short in nature usually lasting 7-10 days at best. You would expect that in November but not so much in the Dec-early February period. So will next week continue the short duration of cold or can we get a 2 week or more sustained cold spell. Wish I had a crystal ball on this one but will need to play it by ear at the moment and just say yes we have a decent cold shot coming in here for the first 7-10 days of the month and then hopefully make more sense of the pattern once the cold arrives.

Here is February snowfall for the 2000s

That breaks down for an average of 7.28" of snow in Feb for the 2000s

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:30 pm That breaks down for an average of 7.28" of snow in Feb for the 2000s

Excellent stats! That is way above the 30 year climate normals for CVG of I believe 6.4" or something like that.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:57 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:30 pm That breaks down for an average of 7.28" of snow in Feb for the 2000s

Excellent stats! That is way above the 30 year climate normals for CVG of I believe 6.4" or something like that.

If you drop those first 4 years of stinkers in the early 2000s we jump to 8.59" . Might be a more accurate average given the changing climate cycle we're in.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:57 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:30 pm That breaks down for an average of 7.28" of snow in Feb for the 2000s

Excellent stats! That is way above the 30 year climate normals for CVG of I believe 6.4" or something like that.

If you drop those first 4 years of stinkers in the early 2000s we jump to 8.59" . Might be a more accurate average given the changing climate cycle we're in.

Wow! That's a heck of an increase. Hope to see this February follow suit.

Looking at 12z EU some more and those first 4 days definitely hold some wintry potential . After what is atm a cutter moves through on the first , a substantial cold front sweeps in and probably stalls out somewhere over the Apps. Then it sure looks like it wants to develop another low down in Texas along the tail of the front . At least some potential to be our first legit over-running event. Something to watch anyways

18Z GFS is a clunker for early Feb. All rain makers due to the cold air being held at bay thanks to the SE Ridge. Hopefully that will be wrong. We need some help from the PV to suppress the ridge but you know how that has gone this winter, other then December around Christmas. 18Z GEFS offers up hope still for GHD. 12Z EPS Mean looks pretty good around the 1st-2nd. We'll just have to wait and see how many pieces of energy we get and where the baroclinic boundary is. Love the set up but it is just an unknown how far SE the boundary will be able to get. That SE Ridge can be a SOB to deal with as we all know.

Snow squalls will be prevalent across the area today and tomorrow. HRRR has some “cells” around the 275 loop at 7-8am. That would cause a ruckus for sure.

Good Morning and Trev I agree about the snow squalls. Visibility can be an issue for a brief period with these.Early in the day and much later in the day these can really cause icing problems. Mid-day usually you have the visibility issues of course but seems once its over then the roads are mainly wet.

Good Morning and a winter look as we head into February. Several systems sweep across the country over the 1st week. Will the arctic air to the north make enough headway for us to be more in the snow area. As usual we look to be in the kitchen sink in terms of precip. No system looks big at this time but if we can get a bigger push of the cold air and the nice ridge over Florida to flex somewhat then a bigger storm is likely east of the Mississippi River. With the fast movement early on models will change probably every run trying to figure each piece of energy and where to place that piece. This kind of pattern is one that has overrunning type storms as well and to get a really good event it would be nice if the jet would somewhat slow down as it looks rather fast next week. Good thing is we have plenty of time this weekend to catch up on the weather with only 2 nfl games.

Rolling with the foreign models right now as the GFS just keeps flip flopping too much. Rain one run, snow the next. CMC has some light snow around the 1st as does the Euro. The Euro also has an nice system by Day 10 as well to keep an eye on.

Good Morning Les and not going with any model at the moment. Arctic air always causes models to have problems and I understand because a system may get stronger than shown which then allows more arctic air to drain south. Also,could be weaker and arctic air stays in place. I expect tons of changes over the next several days and though they may be minor at times it can be a big difference on what kind of precip you get.

Yes mods still showing an An interesting open to Feb . It's just not clear how far the front gets through before it stalls. It's been an easy winter season so far, imo , to forecast a temperature regime 10-14 days in advance, at times 3 weeks out. But this is the first time all season I'm not confident in that 10-14 day range. It will get colder during the first week , but how long and at what extreme I don't have a good feel whatsoever.

Next week precip types may be light but what form will be tricky. Snow,Rain and Frz/Rain look to be around the Ohio Valley next week. Temps will be very important with these systems as a overriding situation looks likely. Plenty of arctic air to tap but a nice strong high to develop near Florida with some really warm temps. Sooner or later a bigger storm will happen and with this pattern its usually in the northeast. Before then expect us to be stuck in the pattern of smaller systems which are usually not to bad unless we get hit with a period of frz/rain and that is possible next week. Would not be surprised somewhere nearby that an ice storm could form but again we just need to see how the arctic air sinks south and how far east.

PV still being stretched but still no signs of a SSW split over the next couple weeks at least.

Hello, everyone...

I would like to put in an order for a snow day on Wednesday, February 1st. I'm a teacher, and I am absolutely dreading that day! Please and thank you!!

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:34 am Hello, everyone...

I would like to put in an order for a snow day on Wednesday, February 1st. I'm a teacher, and I am absolutely dreading that day! Please and thank you!!

One snow day coming up!!!

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:34 am Hello, everyone...

I would like to put in an order for a snow day on Wednesday, February 1st. I'm a teacher, and I am absolutely dreading that day! Please and thank you!!

That's going to cost you

Love the posts here guys! I am in agreement with you Bgoney on the PV. I still don't think we get a split. I'd be happy with a nice elongated stretch like we saw in December provided you get the blocking to line up correctly as it did at that time.

As of 1/24 per the Aussies, the MJO has stalled in Phase 3 and looks to do so for a while. Models as usual have been absolutely terrible in forecasting this. We'll just have to keep an eye on it with real time information. That is likely our best bet. AO and NAO look to be positive with the -PNA rising back towards neutral.

All in all my confidence is also very low with what happens in early Feb. All precip types are on the table at this time until we see where the baroclinic boundary stalls. If we don't have a nice high over S Canada then you know the boundary will stall to our N and W and we'll be mainly rain with these overrunning waves. We need a nice high to push the boundary SE of us so we can score. Would love to see it stalls out and bank up against the Apps. that would be beautiful for us if that were to occur. Again, I have no idea until we get closer.

Im not sure about the first week let alone the entire month like some people already ready to move onto March. I think many people have short term memory loss. It was just 2 winters ago we were in La-Nina and hardly had anything leading up to February and then like a switch we got nailed. in recent years like the last 10 February by far as been the best month for cold and snow I am not quite ready to give up on this winter yet.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:37 am Im not sure about the first week let alone the entire month like some people already ready to move onto March. I think many people have short term memory loss. It was just 2 winters ago we were in La-Nina and hardly had anything leading up to February and then like a switch we got nailed. in recent years like the last 10 February by far as been the best month for cold and snow I am not quite ready to give up on this winter yet.

I'm in agreement. The beginning of the month around GHD usually leads to something trackable, just like this year. We seem to see something around the Super Bowl, Valentine's Day and even President's Day also. We have also scored well in the last decade in February as the stats Bgoney posted for our area proves. Feb 2010 was #1 for snow and then as you mentioned Charles Feb 2021 was great! We had a wonderful 2 week blitz of snow and cold. It ranks as #2 for our area.