Absolute Vorticity

We'll give Nicole her own thread since it's an odd track and could make multiple landfalls and impact a wide area with rain and wind.

Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE INTENSIFYING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

Nicole is impacting the Bahamas now with winds of 70 mph. She will become a cane today. Nicole is moving WSW at 13.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS TO
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

Sure feel for Florida e.g. and after having had Ian in Sept.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:57 pm Sure feel for Florida e.g. and after having had Ian in Sept.

Thankfully they can easily deal with a Cat 1. Esp with Ron driving the bus.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:30 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:57 pm Sure feel for Florida e.g. and after having had Ian in Sept.

Thankfully they can easily deal with a Cat 1. Esp with Ron driving the bus.

Tis true Bro!

Nicole is only the 4th Hurricane to make landfall in the US in Nov.

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Corrected header

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

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Nicole is back down to a TS moving over Central FL. She will briefly come back out over water then make another landfall in the FL Panhandle later on eventually working up into GA and spreading rain our way by late tonight and into tomorrow.

Nicole has winds of 50 mph moving WNW at 16 over FL.

----

Per radar, she's back out over the water (the center) and headed towards Tallahassee.

----

Nicole is still a TD over SW GA moving NNW at 16.

Well at the end of the tropical season and the predictions of how many Hurricanes and tropical systems may end up close to some of those. The problem is each year is different and getting the same amount of storms can be the same from year to year but the affects on the mainland USA can vary greatly. This season it was Florida's time to bare the brunt of the storms. Next year nobody knows at this time when and where the greatest impact will form. Just like winter weather forecasting we can broad base predictions and get within a certain amount of storms but predicting when and where the storms will have the greatest impact is almost impossible to predict.

Tim... I think this season will end at normal, maybe 1 storm above normal so the hyperactive calls still busted big time! We did not see many strong storms either but like 1992 it only takes one and this year it was certainly Ian who stole the show.

1825 UNK 3 WSW FIELDALE HENRY VA 3669 8000 WINDS BLEW DOWN ONE LARGE TREE WHICH BLOCKED ONE LANE ON PRESTON ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WINGFIELD ORCHARD ROAD. (RNK)

1833 UNK 3 WNW BASSETT HENRY VA 3678 8003 WINDS BLEW DOWN A PINE TREE ACROSS THE 300 BLOCK OF BOAT DOCK ROAD. (RNK)

1938 UNK 2 NNE MECHANICSVILLE HANOVER VA 3766 7734 TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF STUDLEY RD AND SHELTON POINTE DR. (AKQ)

2045 UNK 2 SE CENTRAL POINT CAROLINE VA 3798 7711 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON SPARTA RD. (AKQ)