Absolute Vorticity

Welcome to the month of October or I as like to call it, Rocktober! This month is the heart of the fall season. We have seen everything from 90 degrees to snow in this month. Wind and rain too! Also some stretches of beautiful weather, like what we are currently seeing this week. Anyway we'll see how the month of Rocktober looks once Ian gets off the weather map or down the road a bit. Then we'll have more time to look at the extended range.

Wow, hadn't checked a few things lately and some impressive SOI numbers continue





MJO supposed to flare up and forecast to move into the west pac at moderate strength, we'll have to see about that given how that has been a rare occurrence over the last several months due to the ongoing easterlies and cool pac temps

I question the MJO moving into those phases as well. Plus we are expecting La Nina to continue to strengthen a bit more this month also. Long term GFS has been indicating a possible frost and shot of cold air as we approach mid month. That is in fantasy range so we obviously don't yet know. That's the only thing note worthy showing up attm. Typical boring fall weather right now with Ian's light impacts to begin the new month for us locally.

12Z GFS is a swing and a miss now with Ian's leftovers minus the far SE. Then, the deeper trough still showing up, around the 11-12th. Could be the first frost for many if that verifies. Low 30s I-70 Crew and Mid 30s for the rest of us.

Good Afternoon and looks like we are just going to have a wonderful start to October. Not sure how much rain we get from the leftovers of Ian but expecting light amounts at best for most areas. Must head towards eastern Ky and southeast Ohio to get much in way of decent rains. One thing I have noticed with the models is concerning longer term. Over the past week they were always showing above normal temps for the region in every long term forecast. I believe since Ian is heading away after this weekend that models are seeing several cool to cold fronts making its way over the eastern 1/3 of the country and this will keep our temps at near to below normal later next week and probably through mid-Oct. This should give many folks a chance of some frost and that is rather early for our area. Of course some folks have got some light frost but most folks have not seen any at this point. The one thing models show though is rather dry and that has not changed. I never get worried about dry weather in October concerning drought unless we already had a drought going on and that is not the case. I have plenty of outdoor chores and this is the perfect weather to take care of everything which sometimes is not the case. Still expecting leaf change to come earlier than the last several years and last year was very late.

Tim, great post! Your thoughts pretty much match my own. Very comfy weather to work outside in with a breeze and low dew points! Other then some rain, we couldn't really have asked for a better pattern. Anything is better then the heat! Currently though, as far as frost is concerned, it is looking as if the next couple of weeks could deliver in that dept.

Well folks... most should now remain dry with Ian minus our far SE. Clouds will be the bigger deal for us this weekend and breezy conditions too. U60s or so ought to do it. Maybe 70. Then we're back into sunshine next week lol Our first real front of Rocktober is around the 6th.

Suppose to go to Gatlinburg. Just not feeling like dealing with the winds in the mountains today.

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:27 am Suppose to go to Gatlinburg. Just not feeling like dealing with the winds in the mountains today.

Yeah... the weather does not look pleasant thru early next week over the Smokies that is for sure.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:30 am

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:27 am Suppose to go to Gatlinburg. Just not feeling like dealing with the winds in the mountains today.

Yeah... the weather does not look pleasant thru early next week over the Smokies that is for sure.

Yep, that is what I told my sister. She's on her way now. Thanks for your insight as I was on the fence.

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:30 am

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:27 am Suppose to go to Gatlinburg. Just not feeling like dealing with the winds in the mountains today.

Yeah... the weather does not look pleasant thru early next week over the Smokies that is for sure.

Yep, that is what I told my sister. She's on her way now. Thanks for your insight as I was on the fence.

No problem! the low or whatever's left of Ian looks to get as far north as the S Apps then that's about it. That is why we are going to get left out here locally.

We may see highs in the 50s by late next week or next weekend as well as our first frost?

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:43 pm We may see highs in the 50s by late next week or next weekend as well as our first frost?

I'll take that as long as it is sunny! My son is getting married next Friday, outside at YMCA Camp Ernst. Cool I can deal with, just no rain please!

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:43 pm We may see highs in the 50s by late next week or next weekend as well as our first frost?

I'll take that as long as it is sunny! My son is getting married next Friday, outside at YMCA Camp Ernst. Cool I can deal with, just no rain please!

Hi Leslie,

Congratulations to you and your family!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:49 am

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:30 am

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:27 am Suppose to go to Gatlinburg. Just not feeling like dealing with the winds in the mountains today.

Yeah... the weather does not look pleasant thru early next week over the Smokies that is for sure.

Yep, that is what I told my sister. She's on her way now. Thanks for your insight as I was on the fence.

No problem! the low or whatever's left of Ian looks to get as far north as the S Apps then that's about it. That is why we are going to get left out here locally.

It's been dry. When the leaves start falling that is when we will get wet again. Just to make them wet and heavy.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:43 pm We may see highs in the 50s by late next week or next weekend as well as our first frost?

I'll take that as long as it is sunny! My son is getting married next Friday, outside at YMCA Camp Ernst. Cool I can deal with, just no rain please!

Congratulations to all of you.

Camping at the base of Mt Washington in New Hampshire tonight. Taking the cog railway up to the summit tomorrow to see where the worst weather in the country occurs. Excited to see the weather station but clouds from Ian will dampen the view. The leaves are spectacular!!!

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:31 pm Camping at the base of Mt Washington in New Hampshire tonight. Taking the cog railway up to the summit tomorrow to see where the worst weather in the country occurs. Excited to see the weather station but clouds from Ian will dampen the view. The leaves are spectacular!!!

Way cool, Bo and have a great time!!

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:43 pm We may see highs in the 50s by late next week or next weekend as well as our first frost?

I'll take that as long as it is sunny! My son is getting married next Friday, outside at YMCA Camp Ernst. Cool I can deal with, just no rain please!

That's awesome! Congrats Leslie to your son and your family! Currently, the front comes thru on Thurs and we are sunny and windy behind the front struggling to hit 60 on Friday. We'll keep an eye on it.

snowbo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:31 pm Camping at the base of Mt Washington in New Hampshire tonight. Taking the cog railway up to the summit tomorrow to see where the worst weather in the country occurs. Excited to see the weather station but clouds from Ian will dampen the view. The leaves are spectacular!!!

Pics please!!! Any snow yet at the summit?

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:49 am

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:48 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:30 am

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:27 am Suppose to go to Gatlinburg. Just not feeling like dealing with the winds in the mountains today.

Yeah... the weather does not look pleasant thru early next week over the Smokies that is for sure.

Yep, that is what I told my sister. She's on her way now. Thanks for your insight as I was on the fence.

No problem! the low or whatever's left of Ian looks to get as far north as the S Apps then that's about it. That is why we are going to get left out here locally.

It's been dry. When the leaves start falling that is when we will get wet again. Just to make them wet and heavy.

Murphy's Law, right? I'd like to have a word or two with that guy!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:50 am

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:43 pm We may see highs in the 50s by late next week or next weekend as well as our first frost?

I'll take that as long as it is sunny! My son is getting married next Friday, outside at YMCA Camp Ernst. Cool I can deal with, just no rain please!

That's awesome! Congrats Leslie to your son and your family! Currently, the front comes thru on Thurs and we are sunny and windy behind the front struggling to hit 60 on Friday. We'll keep an eye on it.

Might be a windbreaker over the tux kind of wedding!

No snow, only a pile of rime ice left over from last week. Had an inversion today as it was 38° at the campground and 48° at the summit. Unusually calm day as the wind was only 11 mph and it averages 25 to 30 mph daily. Visibility was 110 miles. There was a little haze to the east and we could not see the Atlantic Ocean, but we could see Maine and Vermont. Talk to the weather guys up there and they love their jobs. They do 12 hour shifts 6 to 6 But stay multiple days during the winter. The guy I talked to had experienced 157 mile an hour winds.

Sorry, Wi-Fi is very sketchy so I had to break up the pictures.