Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:02 am Our annual thread is back where we begin to discuss what may, or may not shape up our winter! Time to talk long range, La Nina, and all of the other indices that we normally discuss. As of early Aug, we are watching the following:

Third Year Nina
-IOD
+QBO
High solar activity
-PDO right now, but those waters are warming, need to monitor that.

So to get things going... here is the annual entertaining outlook from the Farmer's Almanac, and as you would guess, the kiss of death for us around here with their outlook. For entertainment purposes only.


Farmersalmanac.jpg

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:38 am
Wow, that would stifle the left's climate warming agenda. Lol! I needed a laugh this morning!!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:55 am @Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:01 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:55 am @Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

I'm always ready! I was born ready!

EDIT: Go dig up your heat miser thread from last year. It still exists. I checked.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:01 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:55 am @Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

I'm always ready! I was born ready!

EDIT: Go dig up your heat miser thread from last year. It still exists. I checked.

oh believe me, I will. It’s a lonely thread since most on here like snow and cold! But I’ll bring it back within the next couple months as things begin to turn.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:03 am Winter storm watch for parts of northeast Alaska. Les winter is on its way!!!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:01 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:55 am @Les you’re an evil SOB! I wasn’t ready yet

I'm always ready! I was born ready!

EDIT: Go dig up your heat miser thread from last year. It still exists. I checked.

oh believe me, I will. It’s a lonely thread since most on here like snow and cold! But I’ll bring it back within the next couple months as things begin to turn.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:17 pm Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:44 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:17 pm Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

I think La Nina is going to be a force again. Weak to moderate in strength is possible at this time. If this occurs, I'd like to see the Nina peak in November then begin to weaken in December. If that kind of timing happens, I'd expect a cold and fast start, a mild middle period then nice ending period as we go towards cold neutral in spring. A book end winter so to speak. Some early thoughts swirling around in my head right now.

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:01 am Glad to see the early Winter thread again. Really enjoy the postings on here so I don't have to research it myself. Les and the gang do a great job looking at the features that stir our weather.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:44 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:17 pm Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

I think La Nina is going to be a force again. Weak to moderate in strength is possible at this time. If this occurs, I'd like to see the Nina peak in November then begin to weaken in December. If that kind of timing happens, I'd expect a cold and fast start, a mild middle period then nice ending period as we go towards cold neutral in spring. A book end winter so to speak. Some early thoughts swirling around in my head right now.

Les it is wild with some of the best met's in the country how they see this playing out. I will use Larry Cosgrove who over the past few years has been in a so called slump and again that happens as we all have a bias and sometimes that can hurt you when forecasting. He is touting how El Nino is forming already and he picks out a few items that you normally see when previous ones have formed. I believe the problem is that earth is always changing and sure there are things from the past that you can lean on for a forecast but keeping up with mother nature is the hard part. Sort like us old folks keeping up with technology and its not easy as the mind will become less sharp year after year.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:23 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:44 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:17 pm Good Evening and already working on winter lol. Something that is interesting to me this year is the arctic regions have been colder than normal this summer and will this help in getting those regions colder this winter. Some of the recent winters we had saw some rather warm fall seasons in the so called arctic regions and folks just south of that area. Not sure what will happen this fall but getting an earlier start to the cold in those regions may help in seeing very cold temps up there this winter which in turn gives us a better shot of seeing a few arctic air masses head our way earlier in the season? These are just early thoughts and again another couple of months before getting into more details.

I think La Nina is going to be a force again. Weak to moderate in strength is possible at this time. If this occurs, I'd like to see the Nina peak in November then begin to weaken in December. If that kind of timing happens, I'd expect a cold and fast start, a mild middle period then nice ending period as we go towards cold neutral in spring. A book end winter so to speak. Some early thoughts swirling around in my head right now.

Les it is wild with some of the best met's in the country how they see this playing out. I will use Larry Cosgrove who over the past few years has been in a so called slump and again that happens as we all have a bias and sometimes that can hurt you when forecasting. He is touting how El Nino is forming already and he picks out a few items that you normally see when previous ones have formed. I believe the problem is that earth is always changing and sure there are things from the past that you can lean on for a forecast but keeping up with mother nature is the hard part. Sort like us old folks keeping up with technology and its not easy as the mind will become less sharp year after year.

I think Larry did a great job with his summer forecast. I respectfully disagree on any El Nino talk until 2023. Bgoney has been keeping us updated with the trade winds and me with the SOI Data and it all is still pointing to a third year Nina taking place this winter. I just don't see it warming like that right now. If anything, the Nina should increase this Autumn if nothing else.


ssta_c.gif


wkxzteq_anm.gif

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:54 am Les you are correct about this summer and Larry did a good job. It has been the past several years where he has been in a slump and this will happen to all met's who make a forecast on their own without a tv station or someone else telling them what can be presented. Many great met's but when they tow the company line it can look bad at times. Ratings ratings and more ratings is the key but that does not mean the info is that reliable. Concerning whether it is a La Nina or neutral is sort of hard to call this early but El Nino imo is not going to happen.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:32 pm Thank you CPC for finally getting on board.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:32 pm Thank you CPC for finally getting on board.

Les I can only go on some of the forecasts and look the ocean temps to try and make a forecast about the the Enso will look like. Those cold waters have been ongoing in the eastern Pacific and though we have some warmer waters in the western Pacific hard for me to say that a La Nina is not the most likely option this winter. When I see Larry going with a El Nino I always give it a second thought because of his overall knowledge especially outside North America

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:50 pm I really don't know what Larry has been looking at the last 2 months, to make him think anything close to ElNino was going to happen for the 22/23 winter months. SOI, sub- surface temps, raging easterlies, what was he looking at?