Absolute Vorticity

Going to kick off our new monthly thread here with rain chances. I still believe that Fri is isolated but by late evening and into the overnight is when we will need to watch the I-70 Crew for the potential for some stronger storms. Then as the front sinks south, I like the higher chances for the first half of Sat. A break then re-development in the late afternoon and evening. Near and south if the river IMO has the highest chances due to where I expect the front to be. Sunday should feature low chances with the front south of us, but it comes back north as a warm front on the 4th so expect high chances again. Agree with Tim in the June thread that some folks will get missed of course and others will cash in. Good luck to all who need and hoping The Domes can hold for those who need dry time for fireworks.

12Z NAM backing off a bit on the coverage of storms for Fri for our I-70 Crew. Looks scattered at best and not a decent looking line as we were seeing on this model. Scattered for those of us down to the south for Sat morning. Highest concentration Sat afternoon is over Central KY. Starting to like some of these trends for my party and for anyone else's plans too, should this actually pan out. Not good news if you want the rain for your hoods though.

The gfs seems more excited about rain chances Friday and Saturday and at this point I tend to hedge my bets on the gfs over the nam.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:52 am The gfs seems more excited about rain chances Friday and Saturday and at this point I tend to hedge my bets on the gfs over the nam.

GFS is not backing down at all... For my party, I am hoping it's wrong. But for drought concerns, you'd want it to be right.

12Z Euro continues to show slim chances this weekend with the highest chances coming from 7/4 - 7/7 I'd be thrilled with that solution. You folks obviously know why!

Good Morning and all good things must come to an end. Already starting to feel the humidity increase this morning. No changes to the forecast over the next 10 days as we are getting into a pattern that we see in the summer almost every year as chances for showers and thundershowers will be higher than normal. Does that mean everyone gets rain and no but many areas should see some rainfall. I would love to see a couple of inches during the next 10 days which should keep me from watering the lawn.

Good morning folks! Prospects for fireworks lovers are looking better and better this weekend with the front slipping just to our south (provided that happens). So look for scattered storms each and every day as Tim mentioned beginning tomorrow, but the highest chances right now for the Big Booms Day are early in the day. As long as the front slips S of the river, we are good to go! I've watered the lawn twice this week and won't do so again until after my party, unless The Dome happens to break of course. We should be able to tack on a 90 I would think for today with a warmer start and dry air in place. Friday is possible also unless a storm ruins it of course. 80s this weekend.

12Z NAM has scattered action tomorrow afternoon with a decent line dropping in overnight that we hope helps out the I-70 Crew. For us, by the time it gets here it weakens and the front passes thru Sat morning and we are good to go for parties and fireworks for the rest of the day. Sunday is also dry on this run.

12Z GFS has the front clearing most folks minus our KY counties S of the Metro Sat morning with the bulks of the convection S of Cincinnati. That would work for me! Sunday also looking dry before the front comes back north as a warm front into next week as well.

GFS looks good for the 4th too. We may not see much until Tuesday and beyond next week. If this is right, great news for party goers and pyros at least.

12Z Euro has the front passing around 1-2pm then we're good to go. Love seeing these trends!

Saw a tweet indicating a very active MCS period for the Ohio Valley developing after the 4th. The Euro is definitely onboard...looks like several MCSs on the 12z run starting the night of July 4th. Would love to see this trend continue on future runs!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:49 pm Saw a tweet indicating a very active MCS period for the Ohio Valley developing after the 4th. The Euro is definitely onboard...looks like several MCSs on the 12z run starting the night of July 4th. Would love to see this trend continue on future runs!

I'm on board for that! GFS and Euro both looking active after most folks' fireworks are done. Perfect!

UPDATED drought monitor map for the Midwest and OV:

That drought map is growing ugly quick

Combining the models for Friday through Monday, I'd go with a 30% chance of isolated t-showers each day. As has been mentioned , if you get one , count your blessings

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:27 pm Combining the models for Friday through Monday, I'd go with a 30% chance of isolated t-showers each day. As has been mentioned , if you get one , count your blessings

Totally agree... As I've said, I'm happy because of my party so hopefully as Mike mentioned the MCS Train will get started next week. If it does, we'll be okay. If it doesn't to your point, it'll get ugly.

Officially going to a 10 to 14 cut schedule on customers properties up here. I like how the gfs shows good shots of rain after the 4th. I think the gfs has better shots than the euro. Time will tell to see if the dry conditions win or will the rain win.

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:21 pm Officially going to a 10 to 14 cut schedule on customers properties up here. I like how the gfs shows good shots of rain after the 4th. I think the gfs has better shots than the euro. Time will tell to see if the dry conditions win or will the rain win.

I don't blame you JP. GFS and Euro both show several opportunities next week. Fingers and toes crossed (but not my eyes). Too painful!

Good Evening and hot but not humid day but that is coming to an end. Funny one day the gfs is the rain maker this weekend and the Euro nothing and latest is the gfs has the front move through quickly while the Euro is much slower. That is why I make a forecast and just throw the models out. They are horrible and I can't play their game sense its wrong so often. To me its early July and yes a decent front but it will slow down somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Exactly where I am not sure but I am going more on the 50-60p/c chance of showers Friday-Monday though I do expect a drier period on Sunday that may need to be lowered. To me I believe a wave will form on the front Saturday and this will help enhance showers and thundershowers so I expect that to be the day with the most clouds and good chances of rain.Sure somebody could miss rain everyday if the timing is not perfect but in the end I go with the six locations in the mid-Ohio valley which include Indy,Day,Cmh,Cvg,Sdf and Lex. I believe most locations for those 4 days will get in the neighborhood of 1-2 inches and someone will get lucky with higher amounts and some unlucky. Going to take the total of those 6 locations Fri-Mon and divide the total rainfall by 6 and see if we end up in that 1-2 inch range and really I expect more in the 1.25-1.75 range.

Good morning all and welcome to month #2 of Met summer. No changes to my call. I like that 30-40% coverage from yesterday's post for the foreseeable future. We may certainly bump up the POPS after the 4th for next week but for today thru the 4th I like those odds. Humid... highs around 90, lows around 70. We may only stay in the mid 80s this weekend thanks to some extra clouds around.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:59 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:21 pm Officially going to a 10 to 14 cut schedule on customers properties up here. I like how the gfs shows good shots of rain after the 4th. I think the gfs has better shots than the euro. Time will tell to see if the dry conditions win or will the rain win.

I don't blame you JP. GFS and Euro both show several opportunities next week. Fingers and toes crossed (but not my eyes). Too painful!

Dang, my eyes are hurting just thinking about that.

The last week of June and now the beginning week of july , you couldn't have had any better summer weather temp wise. Hopefully the moisture dept. Can match the temps over the next week or so

Already up to 80 at CVG with a terrible dew of 73. It is humid and nasty outside but typical for summer around here. Unless a storm pops up nearby later on, anothe3r 90 should be achievable today.

I just noticed that the SPC has folks from the Metro on north (basically N of the river) in a marginal risk for severe wx for today. CAPE values are already looking good, 2500 J/kg. Shear is very weak since the front won't even get close to us until overnight into tomorrow morning. Thus only expecting scattered activity, but it can certainly be strong with very heavy rains if you get under one this afternoon.