Absolute Vorticity

Met Summer begins Wed and so does our 90 degree day contest. You have tomorrow to enter so get 'er done! Meanwhile, we start the new month with a cold front followed by refreshing air in the 70s during the day and 50s at night warming to the lower 80s late in the weekend.

A marginal risk of severe wx Wed as well my friends.

Good morning everyone! We are tracking a cold front for Wed into Thursday to kick off the month of June and Met Summer! The SPC has also upgraded parts of AV Country to a slight risk of severe wx for tomorrow. This is for folks North and East of Cincinnati / I-70 posters.


Wind looks to be the major hazard with a low hail threat and a very low tornado threat. Then, as you know, the 70s return for a bit with some gorgeous weather expected and lower humidity. Dews in the 40s and 50s Fri and Sat! Man that will be a treat.

Next system due in Sun night and Mon of next week. The overall theme for the first 10 to 14 days of June is general troughiness. Continued cold front punching in from the NW. We warm up a touch, get a front, and cool right back down. Wash, rinse, and repeat. We shall seer when that changes, if it does, but for now, I see no signs of big heat or extended heat.

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks great!! I will talk a little bit about the cold front coming in late Wednesday and Thursday. The front itself is rather strong for early June so we may be able to get .25-.50 in most areas. Where does the front slow down and do we see a smaller low work itself along the front to give some folks a little more than I expect. Good to see rain every week and if that continues summer may not be that bad in terms of heat. When you see this pattern it seems we need to wait for the tropics to wake up in late July or early August before we have a decent shot of some extended heat. That is when we can see the pressures rise north of these tropical systems. Can we see some heat before and no doubt that will happen but getting extended heat with this pattern is not easy to do. If we continue to get .5-1 inch of rain every week then we should be good to go.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 7:23 am Good Morning Les. Forecast looks great!! I will talk a little bit about the cold front coming in late Wednesday and Thursday. The front itself is rather strong for early June so we may be able to get .25-.50 in most areas. Where does the front slow down and do we see a smaller low work itself along the front to give some folks a little more than I expect. Good to see rain every week and if that continues summer may not be that bad in terms of heat. When you see this pattern it seems we need to wait for the tropics to wake up in late July or early August before we have a decent shot of some extended heat. That is when we can see the pressures rise north of these tropical systems. Can we see some heat before and no doubt that will happen but getting extended heat with this pattern is not easy to do. If we continue to get .5-1 inch of rain every week then we should be good to go.

Good morning Tim and thanks! So far, I think the prime zone in our forum coverage area to receive that second round on Thurs (non severe) are folks near Cincy and points south at this point. We'll have to see how fast this front actually is moving to see if the low has enough time to pop for us or Central KY.

Radar forecast for tomorrow afternoon from the 3km NAM

So Thursday looks interesting to me - while the global models are highlighting areas more south for any convection, the hi-res models (NAM3km) are hinting at convection NORTH of the river. Will be curious to see the 12z runs and if that trend continues, or if it was just an anomaly.

That is interesting... SPC would need to put the marg risk also more north if correct. Place your bets!

12Z NAM has POPS from about late afternoon Wed thru about mid afternoon on Thurs for the Cincy area. Adjust the timing there of course if you are north or south of the Metro.

87 was all I could do here. CVG 88. The CVG 90 Day Contest starts tomorrow guys! The clock is ticking if you are not in.

Good morning all! Still no changes to the forecast. Slight risk for folks North and East of Cincy and a marg risk for everyone else. T-storms will arrive this afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe with winds being the biggest issue. Storm chances continue4s into Thurs until the front passes in the afternoon. Non severe expected then. Fri - The weekend is gorgeous then storm chances return early next week.

Today is a BIG DAY here on AV. We have the first day of our CVG 90 degree day contest kicking off, we are tracking t-storms, and we also have an AV Double Birthday as well. Angelika and Snwyowl... Happy Birthday to you both! Have a great day!!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:19 am Today is a BIG DAY here on AV. We have the first day of our CVG 90 degree day contest kicking off, we are tracking t-storms, and we also have an AV Double Birthday as well. Angelika and Snwyowl... Happy Birthday to you both! Have a great day!!!

Happy Birthday to you both!!!

BG StormTalk! wave3.com/2022/06/01/stormtalk-weather-blog-update-61/

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:19 am Today is a BIG DAY here on AV. We have the first day of our CVG 90 degree day contest kicking off, we are tracking t-storms, and we also have an AV Double Birthday as well. Angelika and Snwyowl... Happy Birthday to you both! Have a great day!!!

Happy Birthday and both of you have a wonderful day!!

So models have really backed off my way and that always makes me nervous. Feeling this may be another dome day for me but hope I am wrong.

It's the Tri-State slight risk gap on the new day 1 outlook LOL

Wow... that's a big ole dome in place on that map.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:00 am Wow... that's a big ole dome in place on that map.

Typical for my hood - guess the dome is flexing it's muscles today

SBCAPE plentiful at this time in the 2500-3000 J/kg range. Very little shear (prob why the SLGT risk was trimmed here). DCAPE around 1,000 near the river. Just waiting for the trigger to arrive later this afternoon.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ANGELIKA AND SNWYOWL!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddies!

Currently 82 with a DP of 63 here in G'ville.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:19 am It's the Tri-State slight risk gap on the new day 1 outlook LOL


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Will be interesting to see what the next updated outlook, too, shows in the next hour / hour and a half.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:12 am BG StormTalk! wave3.com/2022/06/01/stormtalk-weather-blog-update-61/

so we all watch and wait to see what Alex is going to do......

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:44 am HAPPY BIRTHDAY ANGELIKA AND SNWYOWL!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddies!

Currently 82 with a DP of 63 here in G'ville.

Happy birthdays!

Looks like the split has filled in!

87 / 71 here... CVG as of 12pm had 84 / 68