Absolute Vorticity

With the MJO now in Phase 4 per the Aussies, we are set to now begin March on a warm note. I do suspect that we'll see shots of cold air too. Wet and active most likely will be a continued theme so more flooding talk will be likely on the forum I am sure as time goes on. The month starts quiet with a couple of week clippers passing thru the Lakes / S Canada. Our next real shot at March rain looks to be the first weekend in March at this time. It looks wet after that with another stalled frontal boundary in the region.

GFS is ugly, either cold and wet or warm and wet.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:58 pm GFS is ugly, either cold and wet or warm and wet.

Either way, we're getting wet! Get out the boat!

March 2, 2012: 10 Years Later.... This is a new webpage from the boys highlighting that tornado outbreak.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5a ... ec34d75740

EDIT: We also have a new thread started to discuss this event.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=123

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:58 pm GFS is ugly, either cold and wet or warm and wet.

Either way, we're getting wet! Get out the boat!

Models did a good job in their long range 10-14 days ago in showing this extended panhandle cutter pattern, I'm not sure when it ends

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 5:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:58 pm GFS is ugly, either cold and wet or warm and wet.

Either way, we're getting wet! Get out the boat!

Models did a good job in their long range 10-14 days ago in showing this extended panhandle cutter pattern, I'm not sure when it ends

Same here. I hope it continues once we get into April and May. Should be some good severe wx events.

Still expecting the pattern to get more active / wet with a stalled out frontal boundary arriving around the 6th. Fairly quiet (thankfully so we can dry out) until then.

Anyone think we may be done with snow for the year? It really doesn't look promising.

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:21 am Anyone think we may be done with snow for the year? It really doesn't look promising.

Nope. I don't think we are done yet. There's probably going to be another decent shot of cold air after we get past next week. I think we've got one more chance. After mid month, then yeah we are probably done until next season.

12z GFS keeps the flood risk Panhandle low theme pattern at full power for the Missouri/Tennessee/ and Ohio River Valley's

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:36 pm 12z GFS keeps the flood risk Panhandle low theme pattern at full power for the Missouri/Tennessee/ and Ohio River Valley's

It's a good severe wx pattern once we get into spring. This time of year, it's a miserable pattern.

Let's see how my long range call works out. I think we'll see 60s by Thurs of next week and the potential to hit 70 is there for the first time ahead of our next frontal boundary that promises to bring rain next weekend and an end to the mild pattern we will be getting into for next week.

First week of March not quite as warm as I thought we could see from a couple weeks back, but warm and sunny enough for a beautiful week to dry out before the next round of lows ruin the party.

What a gorgeous week we've got upcoming! Enjoy it and we need to dry out for sure. It'll give the river a chance to calm back down as well.

Looks as though the MJO is headed into the circle of death. This warm up might not be too long lasting.

GEFs still show the warm and dry of this week ending during the upcoming weekend and begins another wet cooler period for the second week of March and beyond

12Z Euro begins bringing in light rain Sat night so we get a 50 / 50 weekend as far as dry weather is concerned. All models are looking active, as previously mentioned for the foreseeable future so any major outdoor projects that you need to get done this week, get 'em done, because the longer term is looking wet.

Good Afternoon and a lovely wet day here in Greenville. Good thing is some beautiful and warm days this week and will get some outside chores done. Will be here for 2 weeks, then home for 10 days, then a vacation to Orlando for 7 days then home for 4 days then back to Greenville for about 7 days and then probably home for the remainder of the spring.

This is from the 12z GFS run for this coming Thursday. Not likely to happen at all, but wouldn't this be a hoot!

Forecast currently dry but the boys did have this to say:

Thursday`s forecast continues to trend downward for
temperatures as a large and strong surface high pressure builds
over southern Canada. This suggests northeasterly flow area
wide, ushering in much lower theta-e air. Temperatures have
dropped a few degrees from the previous forecast with mid to
upper 30s north of I-70 and 40s south. Regarding precipitation
chances, the current forecast remains dry for Thursday.
Deterministic models continue to suggest a narrow NW to SE band
of modest lift and sufficient moisture along an area of
isentropic lift and weak mid-level frontogenesis. Forecast
soundings show considerable amounts of dry air undercutting the
saturation aloft but still enough saturation that snow reaches
the surface. Given the lack of strong support from ensembles and
timing differences from deterministic solutions, will continue
to hold off on adding snow into forecast.

For myself, so so so so READY FOR SPRING and looking forward tremendously to milder temps this week!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:44 am

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:21 am Anyone think we may be done with snow for the year? It really doesn't look promising.

Nope. I don't think we are done yet. There's probably going to be another decent shot of cold air after we get past next week. I think we've got one more chance. After mid month, then yeah we are probably done until next season.

I have to disagree i think its over. I see nothing in the 7-10 day forecast and even longer term I don't see much hope . maybe second half of March we get a cheap thrill but who knows at this point. going to be a way below avg year unless we get some late season miracle to happen yet.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:44 am

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:21 am Anyone think we may be done with snow for the year? It really doesn't look promising.

Nope. I don't think we are done yet. There's probably going to be another decent shot of cold air after we get past next week. I think we've got one more chance. After mid month, then yeah we are probably done until next season.

I have to disagree i think its over. I see nothing in the 7-10 day forecast and even longer term I don't see much hope . maybe second half of March we get a cheap thrill but who knows at this point. going to be a way below avg year unless we get some late season miracle to happen yet.

Yeah... we are all going to end up below avg for snow. Absolutely agree... nothing is going to change that fact.

A weak front looks to try and spoil the party this week about late Wed / wed night. A brief shower is possible. Cooler for Thurs. Then we warm again and maker a run at our first 70 on Sat ahead of the rain late Sat or Sat night / Sunday. The active weather will continue into next week and stick around for a while. So as stated yesterday, get out and enjoy it for the most part, this week.

I am already in severe weather mode - sorry to the snow weenies but once March comes around, it's time for the thunderstorm season to begin! CIPS long range is not disappointing with several severe episodes possible in the Miss Valley from day 6 onward.