Absolute Vorticity

The action starts Wed night after midnight and ends on Friday. Ice, sleet, and snow likely for I-70 Crew and ice / rain boarder line is CVG Land. Discuss away!!!

Nothing more to add to post in FEB thread earlier , so ill repost it here


No significant changes from overnight mods . Tues still going with 1-2" qpf, north to south. Early thurs morning , pre-dawn, still looks llike light frozen precip along and north of river, with GFS hinting at maybe an inch of snow near I70, then a short break late morning before more moisture works in . GFS continues to move towards EU with warmer 850s, while EU ever so slightly colder surface temps , so for now, along and north of 71 a sleet /FRZ mix and south of 71 FRZR to rain for second wave.

Good Morning and another busy week. Concerning the system later this week and I guess we start out looking what happens before hand which could help in determining the outcome later this week. Very mild and wet early week and compared to the last mess we had the extended period of warmth should help with road conditions. Looks like a 2 wave system and saying that how long is the break between waves. Where does the cold front end up stalling is another key. I agree the first system could bring some light winter like conditions late Wednesday and early Thursday. At this time still to early to pinpoint what type and how much precip we get. During the time between the 1st and 2nd wave will colder air try to work in or will the 2nd wave be strong enough to push more warmth especially in the upper layers to produce mainly liquid. Once the second wave has developed we get into a very similar situation of two weeks ago where if you are getting snow it stays snow and if you are rain it stays rain and of course all the bad stuff in between. Still believe though enough cold air at the end of the storm on Friday that a small accumulation of snow is possible locally but plenty of time to figure that out. Was planning to leave for SC this morning but other items came up and will be leaving this Saturday instead.

Glad you will be here for this storm Tim (as long as the other items that came up aren't major of course) Looks like another headache for forecasters ahead with this one. I'll take the rain. I'm done with frz rain and pingers personally. We are walking a fine line in our hoods attm.

WB Les and hope you had a great weekend. Nothing major but decide I could get a few things done here as I will in SC for about 2 weeks or so. A big fight in terms of weather as one of the coldest outbreaks of the year is headed into the USA but also the Southeast ridge is really starting to ramp up. So as usual living in the Ohio Valley we must try and break up the fight and of course sometimes we end up with the ones being hurt lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:05 am WB Les and hope you had a great weekend. Nothing major but decide I could get a few things done here as I will in SC for about 2 weeks or so. A big fight in terms of weather as one of the coldest outbreaks of the year is headed into the USA but also the Southeast ridge is really starting to ramp up. So as usual living in the Ohio Valley we must try and break up the fight and of course sometimes we end up with the ones being hurt lol.

Thanks Tim! Had a great time ice fishing and brought back some crappie and pan fish. That'll be some fine eating there! It was cold Sat and breezy. Sunday was windy but warm in the mid 40s. My cousin has an ice shanty so once you're out of that wind, you are warm as toast! 2 guys and a lantern really creates some heat. I don't think I'll ever sit on a bucket out in the open like we did in the old days again!

Anyway, back to the forecast here and rain with this system is no good either since we don't need any more precip right now. So we either get the double flooding whammy if everything is liquid this week or we slip n slide with this system after getting the rain on Tues first. I don't really see much positive in the outcome for us. I-70 Crew... we'll see how long they can remain on the snowier side or will the frz rain and sleet get them too? Going to be interesting! It amazes me how strong the WAA is. The high to our north is around 1040 MB and the low coming into KY is around 1008 MB so not particularly strong. Yet we warm tongue anyway.

Nam is close to its previous run on the 1st wave. Maybe a hair further north with the warmer thermals but locally we are still in the frz./rain area. Second wave is just starting to so up on the last few ticks of the model and its a battle zone.

Lebanon looks to be right on the border of everything…again. Thoughts?

12Z GFS continuing to trend north with each run little by little. Now it appears that folks along and south of the river will stay mainly as rain if this model run is correct. Ice storm for folks esp N of downtown to I-70 then sleet and snow north of there.

Nothing new to add to previous morning post from GFS , Ice accretion still in the .10-.25", norht of 71, maybe .30" at the high end , atm

The GFS has accumulating snow to our north with the second wave and accumulating snow in Kentucky with the weekend storm. The ole southwest Ohio northern Kentucky split.

CMC looks similar to the GFS for Thurs and Fri.

i have no hope for the rest of this month as far as snow. we may have something to deal with as we go into March however

GEFS looks like the OP GFS. some rainers in there some sleet and frz rain solutions too. Again CVG is right on the edge of frz rain and a cold 33-34 and rain only with this second wave Thurs / Fri. My concern for problems right now are the N Cincy Burbs on northward and esp NW of Cincinnati as well. For the folks in and around the river and points S and SE... we may avoid major impacts should the GFS / CMC be correct here. Even the 0Z Euro was similar. Very good model agreement on this right now. If things do not trend weaker / SE then CVG Land and points south, this won't be a huge deal minus flooding and high water problems.

We may need to extend the dates or use a new thread... whatever... for the weekend wave. Got half a dozen GEFS members bringing snow as far north as I-70. Let's not let that one sneak up on us. If the northern solutions are correct, heights won't be as low with the weekend wave so we'd have a shot at that one too I would think.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:46 pm We may need to extend the dates or use a new thread... whatever... for the weekend wave. Got half a dozen GEFS members bringing snow as far north as I-70. Let's not let that one sneak up on us. If the northern solutions are correct, heights won't be as low with the weekend wave so we'd have a shot at that one too I would think.

Les that wave has been on and off all weekend with different models. No doubt something to watch. I knew the chance was there so I planned on leaving Saturday in case that wave ended up as something decent.

Seeing more and more guidance bringing in 2" of rain for CVG to get things started tonight thru tomorrow night. Not good esp if wave 2 is more liquid versus frozen. Flooding is going to be a concern with this system in addition to the frozen side.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:46 pm We may need to extend the dates or use a new thread... whatever... for the weekend wave. Got half a dozen GEFS members bringing snow as far north as I-70. Let's not let that one sneak up on us. If the northern solutions are correct, heights won't be as low with the weekend wave so we'd have a shot at that one too I would think.

Les that wave has been on and off all weekend with different models. No doubt something to watch. I knew the chance was there so I planned on leaving Saturday in case that wave ended up as something decent.

We've got a very busy time of it starting tomorrow for most of this week and perhaps into this weekend. Buckle up!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:05 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:46 pm We may need to extend the dates or use a new thread... whatever... for the weekend wave. Got half a dozen GEFS members bringing snow as far north as I-70. Let's not let that one sneak up on us. If the northern solutions are correct, heights won't be as low with the weekend wave so we'd have a shot at that one too I would think.

Les that wave has been on and off all weekend with different models. No doubt something to watch. I knew the chance was there so I planned on leaving Saturday in case that wave ended up as something decent.

We've got a very busy time of it starting tomorrow for most of this week and perhaps into this weekend. Buckle up!

No doubt Les and it looks like the Euro has gone a hair south with the Thursday/Friday system. All 3 main models are close 3 days away but since we are going to be on the borderline of precip types every few miles make a difference.

Looks like all models are locked in on an along and SE of I-71 flooding rain event and NW of there ice ice baby. Probably mostly snow for the northern tier or two of ILN's counties. 12Z Euro also agreeing with this...

I agree Les and still need to watch the 1st wave late Wednesday and early Thursday as that could produce a light round of frz/rain and if its during rush hour that can always cause problems.

Then, I think our best chance for wintry weather for us in and around Cincinnati and points S and E... our shot maybe this weekend for snow with that final wave since I think the front struggles to get very far to the south. The jury is out on that third and final wave of course, but if we rain down here with most of this activity then I can't see how the third wave misses to the SE. It can happen, but the chances are low. If we were to cool down with the Thurs / Fri wave then the weekend would be a miss. But I'm not seeing that happening right now.

Not much but some mood flakes now showing up on the Euro Sun afternoon and evening. Nice shift north from the Euro with regards to that weekend wave which fits my ideas nicely.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:34 pm Not much but some mood flakes now showing up on the Euro Sun afternoon and evening. Nice shift north from the Euro with regards to that weekend wave which fits my ideas nicely.

Les the other day the Euro I believe was the first to have the Sunday system but has been further and further south ever since though a tad north with this run.

My current thinking is about the same as most... along and SE of I-71 mainly rain with minimal impacts from wintry weather. Flooding the bigger deal. Then NW of I-71 gets the sleet, ice and snow side depending on where you are. Weekend wave TBD...