Absolute Vorticity

Please post links to weather model information and other goodies here!

I'd love to get more into the positives and negatives of each of the major models at some point in time. I don't know if there are articles out there already covering it, I haven't had time to look.

It always seems in the winter that each potential storm, whether it's small or potentially big, has a lot of disagreement about how it will play out. I see comments saying "This model has a cold bias, so it won't be this snowy" or "This model has been going way too warm, so it'll be colder" or the famous "We've been NAM'ed" right before the storms hits. I think one of the bigger things was the big storm back in February that somehow had model agreement way in advance and nothing was changing, nothing was changing, then suddenly the NAM caught onto a level of the atmosphere getting too warm while none of the other models caught on to that. Why is that? Everything else has a blind spot on that kind of detail? Or is the NAM just really good at that?

Those are the details I'm curious about, though unfortunately the time to really dive into it evades me. It's never the right time to overanalyze the models and why it went wrong in the heat of the moment while the storm is busy not giving us a ton of snow because everyone's emotions can get the best of them. But while the active weather has cooled off, always a good time to learn.

There is a link on the WPC website showing model biases and what things they are good at and what things aren't so good.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml

Here is a link for model verification scores:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml

If you don't mind paying $25.00 a month, then Weather Bell has good models.

www.weatherbell.com

You can zoom into states, cities, regions, etc. Plus, the EURO with precip and a lot of other parameters!

John Gumm said he uses Weather Bell models while at work.

I want to add this one too, the MJO / ENSO link I posted in the December thread:

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Excellent link!

Microburst wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:39 pm If you don't mind paying $25.00 a month, then Weather Bell has good models.

www.weatherbell.com

You can zoom into states, cities, regions, etc. Plus, the EURO with precip and a lot of other parameters!

Yeah I really love Weather Bell. I also have AccuWx Professional as they have the text data available (if WB would get this I would just use them but I doubt they ever will). I did have Maue's site wxmodels.com however a lot of this is freely avail on weather.us, plus it was kind of redundant to have both wxmodels and Weather Bell.

For those not wanting to spend a lot, PivotalWeather just raised their monthly price to $9.99 eff January 2022, however they have all the Euro data as well as the normal models (NAM, HRRR, GFS) with local zooms. Plus the neat feature of this site is you can point and click for model soundings anywhere (even for the Euro model).