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Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:31 pm
by Trevor
Model runs have been consistent for a few days now for either one or multiple areas of low pressure to impact the region. Multiple outcomes are possible, and this storm(s) will likely feature everything from thunderstorms to crippling snow and ice and everything in between. As is always the case, the track is one of the major deciding factors for what kind of weather your particular backyard will experience.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:11 pm
by Trevor
12z Canadian coming in with another juicy run; nearly 3" of precipitation. This run is a bit colder than 00z. Sleet fest for the metro, heavy snow north and heavy freezing rain south.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:11 pm
by tron777
GFS is NW showing mainly rain ending as slop. CMC has a crippling sleet / ice storm. GEFS has a good mix of wintry solutions and a few rainers. Euro running now...
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:14 pm
by Trevor
Further adding, the Canadian really delivers for the snow starved folks in central Illinois and Indiana
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:23 pm
by tron777
Euro looks to come in a bit NW of 0Z.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:25 pm
by tron777
It's still going to be way colder then the GFS though. Def going to be closer to the Canadian.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:26 pm
by tron777
Looks like more of a rain, bit of sleet then heavy snow looking at CVG text data. Much less of an ice threat on this run which is good.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:26 pm
by Bgoney
EU slower with arctic boundary reaching cvgland compared to its 0z.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:28 pm
by tron777
This is looking good for Thursday!
Code: Select all
CVG
WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.9 3.6 1021 81 91 0.01 564 547
WED 18Z 02-FEB 3.6 4.0 1019 97 91 0.44 563 547
THU 00Z 03-FEB 3.1 2.6 1019 99 95 0.20 562 547
THU 06Z 03-FEB 2.2 2.6 1019 99 98 0.16 561 545
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.0 -1.1 1025 91 99 0.25 560 541
THU 18Z 03-FEB -6.9 -4.2 1026 85 99 0.60 560 540
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -8.6 -6.4 1029 84 98 0.23 559 537
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -9.7 -7.5 1030 77 55 0.02 557 534
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:29 pm
by tron777
Code: Select all
DAY
WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.9 2.6 1021 80 70 0.03 563 546
WED 18Z 02-FEB 3.3 2.3 1019 90 97 0.39 561 546
THU 00Z 03-FEB 3.2 0.8 1019 95 99 0.25 560 545
THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.3 0.0 1021 92 99 0.24 559 542
THU 12Z 03-FEB -6.5 -4.6 1027 86 99 0.23 558 538
THU 18Z 03-FEB -9.0 -6.5 1028 86 99 0.35 558 537
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -9.8 -7.6 1030 87 93 0.16 557 534
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:31 pm
by tron777
Code: Select all
HAO
WED 12Z 02-FEB 2.9 3.4 1021 81 85 0.02 563 547
WED 18Z 02-FEB 3.5 3.4 1019 93 95 0.49 562 547
THU 00Z 03-FEB 3.4 1.8 1019 97 99 0.20 561 546
THU 06Z 03-FEB 1.1 1.6 1020 96 99 0.18 560 544
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.7 -2.8 1026 85 99 0.22 559 540
THU 18Z 03-FEB -7.5 -5.4 1027 83 100 0.46 559 538
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -9.1 -6.9 1030 84 97 0.19 558 536
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -10.8 -8.0 1031 79 41 0.01 556 533
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:32 pm
by Bgoney
Perfect low track , make this day 2 and im happy
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:33 pm
by tron777
A much slower run. 0Z had a 1004 Low over Eastern KY Thurs afternoon. 12Z run has a 1009 MB low over NC Alabama over to GA. 0Z run took the low up into PA and NY State. Big difference between the two runs. For CVG snow weenies, this is the better solution for us (12Z)
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:36 pm
by tron777
Euro 10:1 I do not have a Kuchera.
Euro10to1.png
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:37 pm
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:36 pm
Euro 10:1 I do not have a Kuchera.
Euro10to1.png
Solid hit!
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:38 pm
by tpweather
Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:40 pm
by Trevor
12z Euro has similar placement as the GFS re: crippling ice.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:59 pm
by tpweather
Should be a fun storm to watch and hopefully tune up the forecasting skills. Very few systems like this so far and trying to get the so called analog back in the brain for this system. Hopefully by Monday the models will come in better agreement. My first though a few days ago was to go milder and especially the first wave but when I saw the AO all of a sudden jump to really negative for that period that told me its probably going to be colder and the waves further southeast plus a slower overall pattern.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:27 pm
by Trevor
12z Euro Snowfall (Kuchera)
Pretty extreme snowfall rates Thu morning through midday. Most of that snow falls in a 6-8hr window. Impressive!
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:37 pm
by dce
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:27 pm
12z Euro Snowfall (Kuchera)
Pretty extreme snowfall rates Thu morning through midday. Most of that snow falls in a 6-8hr window. Impressive!
That would be on top of all that ice. A very impressive event is about to unfold.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:43 pm
by tron777
12Z EPS Mean at 10:1 Very impressive!
EPS Mean.jpg
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:49 pm
by Trevor
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:38 pm
Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest
I still have PTSD from that sleet fest last February
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:10 pm
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:49 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:38 pm
Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest
I still have PTSD from that sleet fest last February
Me too! I love fireworks not pingers!
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:26 pm
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:10 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:49 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:38 pm
Let the battle begin. Euro colder and slower. Sleet and models always tend to overdo sleet output. Usually such a narrow band between frz/ra and snow and usually need a strong low pressure system and though there looks to be tons of precip the low pressure itself never seems to get really strong and part of that would deal with the strong high pressure to the northwest
I still have PTSD from that sleet fest last February
Me too! I love fireworks not pingers!
Was still an extremely impactful storm for the area, especially with the final few inches falling over all that ice. But man that one was so close to burying us. The NAM won that storm big time. The only model to show the sleet fest.
Re: Potential Winter Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:30 pm
by tron777
I remember how awful it was shoveling. You really couldn't. Used a lot of salt to melt that crap lol We are due for a big snow storm We've had major ice in recent years, pingers last year. 33 and rain. Now come on!