Absolute Vorticity

The last month of Met Winter starts in 1 week from now. The pattern looks more active with up n down temps and shot of cold air still available. Rain, ice, and snow all possible for the first week to ten days of the month. We'll just have to take each set up one at a time and see how much further out in time these cold shots will come. As always, we need the timing of the cold and moisture to be just right. We have not had it yet. Let's not give up! 6 weeks of legit snow climo to go for most areas!

So far, Feb looks to open up with a rain maker the afternoon of 2/1. Could be a couple of days of rain with a slow moving frontal boundary. Could end as flakes as colder air rushes in behind the front. We'll see what happens after that. I do see more cold air getting injected into the pattern at times so snow chances are absolutely still there after this first rain maker moves thru. Pattern is certainly looking more active.

We get the rain maker per the 12Z GFS to kick off Feb but after that... a phasing opportunity gets missed then I've seen on and off, a frontal boundary setting up somewhere around the 8-10th period. Cold air is close by. Some runs stall the boundary for overrunning precip and I've seen other solutions like the current one, showing rain with a front, then a secondary low works up along the front to snow on us. It is fantasy of course but an interesting potential nonetheless.

12Z Euro also bringing the rain in by Wed of next week, Feb 2nd. Decent rains Wed night into Thurs as well. A couple waves of low pressure move up along the front. highs in the mid 60s on Thurs the 4th anyone? Could be talking t-storms too with the Euro solution and a lot of heavy rain to boot. Again, cannot rule out some flakes on Fri as it wraps up.

After this system, Ensemble models are showing cold air getting involved in the pattern again. Some have -EPO and a -PNA and some try and bring the +PNA back too, but I find that highly suspect at this time. Anyway, the risk for a cutter, Apps Runner, EC Low are all on the table in February. I think the pattern is active and shots of cold air will be available. I do not expect blow torch conditions at this time. One day in the 50s or 60s even 2 or 3 does not constitute as a pattern change to a warmer look.

Wow... EGADS @ the 6Z GFS!

We get the cutter on Wed the 2nd with rain. then another low forms and works up along the front for a mix to snow on Thurs.
Now the Euro also has the 2nd low forming along the front but it cuts over us so rain with snow to the west. The CMC also looking interesting with that second low on the front. Rain to snow on Friday of next week.

Behind that, we get this little beauty per 6Z GFS.
Another system forming in the fantasy range too! Yes please! Bottom line, all fantasy ness aside is the pattern. Models are showing a gradient pattern developing with large temp. contrasts. Stalled out frontal boundaries and overrunning precip. This means, longer duration events. Heavier precip events. You do not need a strong low for a big snow storm. Location is key with relationship to the front and baroclinic boundary. We don't yet know how that will pan out. Potential is there in early Feb to make up some ground should we be on the correct side of the front.

To sum it up:

Rain - Feb 2nd
Rain or rain to snow Thurs / Fri 3-4th

Then around the 7th-8th? 10-11th if you really want to go out there? Anyway... there you go. Lots of interesting times ahead for Feb right out of the gate.

This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.


SnowyDreams.png

LOL, I think its underestimating the potentials


But seriously , the hunt sure would be a lot more fun knowing the possible payoff would be something other than a dusting to inch payoff

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.


SnowyDreams.png

I"m waiting for CBs first call map of 0-35"

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.


SnowyDreams.png

Looks like a Picasso imo.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:45 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.


SnowyDreams.png

I"m waiting for CBs first call map of 0-35"

That will be in the afternoon update

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.


SnowyDreams.png

LOL, I think its underestimating the potentials


But seriously , the hunt sure would be a lot more fun knowing the possible payoff would be something other than a dusting to inch payoff

You know the drill. It's a high risk, high reward type of pattern. We want to "smell the rain" to get the big snows. We want the rain / snow line to be within 50-100 miles of us to really cash in with this new upcoming pattern. Gradient patterns are either frustrating as hell or can bring you a seasons worth of snow in a couple weeks time if they keep repeating and occur across the correct areas.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:51 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:45 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.


SnowyDreams.png

I"m waiting for CBs first call map of 0-35"

That will be in the afternoon update

I had to post it and the text data (which you saw earlier) just because we don't even see those insane amounts modeled all that much. We really haven't had a lot of digital fantasy snow this season as we typically see on guidance. To me, it's actually refreshing!

Les it has been a bad season even for the digital snow this season. The northern jet has been fast and probably faster than normal and unable to hook up with the limited southern energy. No doubt the GOM and STJ usually gets going in February and the waters are primed. Who knows if we get the big snow in February but usually when you have a La Nina dying off a big system usually seems to pop up somewhere over the central and eastern USA. I guess the one good thing is the cold in Canada has had very little warming this winter and of course a deep snow pack so we are still able to tap some really cold air to work into the systems.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.

Would also most certainly change an otherwise crappy winter season into an awesome one! Heck I'll take a third of that!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:03 am Les it has been a bad season even for the digital snow this season. The northern jet has been fast and probably faster than normal and unable to hook up with the limited southern energy. No doubt the GOM and STJ usually gets going in February and the waters are primed. Who knows if we get the big snow in February but usually when you have a La Nina dying off a big system usually seems to pop up somewhere over the central and eastern USA. I guess the one good thing is the cold in Canada has had very little warming this winter and of course a deep snow pack so we are still able to tap some really cold air to work into the systems.

If you look at 500 MB, I really like the placement on some models of the ridges. The Ridge over the West is near the Coast of North America and not over the Rockies. We've got a weak SE ridge too with the center of it off the SE Coast over the Bahamas. Love seeing that look. That puts us in a good spot for when the trough just amplifies as the energy rounds the base of it as it approaches the MS River instead of it happening near or east of us. Yes, we can easily rain in this look with cutters, but with the right tweaks, we can snow, and snow heavily too at times.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.

Would also most certainly change an otherwise crappy winter season into an awesome one! Heck I'll take a third of that!

Something in that 4-6" range would indeed make us all happy! Potential is there my friend.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:55 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:34 am This would make for a wonderful desktop background on a phone or PC.


SnowyDreams.png

LOL, I think its underestimating the potentials


But seriously , the hunt sure would be a lot more fun knowing the possible payoff would be something other than a dusting to inch payoff

You know the drill. It's a high risk, high reward type of pattern. We want to "smell the rain" to get the big snows. We want the rain / snow line to be within 50-100 miles of us to really cash in with this new upcoming pattern. Gradient patterns are either frustrating as hell or can bring you a seasons worth of snow in a couple weeks time if they keep repeating and occur across the correct areas.

I'm ready to hunt bigger game even if the hunt isn't successful. I'm growing tired or bored , whichever , of hunting for chipmunks, bring on the moose(with proper license of course)

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:00 am I'm ready to hunt bigger game even if the hunt isn't successful. I'm growing tired or bored , whichever , of hunting for chipmunks, bring on the moose(with proper license of course)

I'm ready here!

12Z GFS lost the two low idea on this run so one big rain storm and cold frontal passage and that's it for next week.

Over 50% of the GEFS members still keep the two low idea next week. CMC still showing it also.

Let's be honest we know we are going to get rain and not 25 inches of snow haha.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:52 pm Let's be honest we know we are going to get rain and not 25 inches of snow haha.

That is a real possibility! Hoping for a 4-6" in this pattern. Trying to be realistic!

Acually think the 12z EU 500mb looks similar to 6z GFS , and thats a good thing