Absolute Vorticity

I’m not particularly enthused by the severe prospects today — or I should say, anything super organized. Isolated severe? Sure. But I just don’t see things getting too out of hand personally.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:10 am I’m not particularly enthused by the severe prospects today — or I should say, anything super organized. Isolated severe? Sure. But I just don’t see things getting too out of hand personally.

Instability could be an issue. I see a touch of sun coming later but not enough unless something changes.

Just had another band of showers move through. More to come over Western IN, maybe some embedded thunder.

I agree with Trev on the severe aspect. Isolated and main item will be gusty winds getting to the surface. Dew points may not get above 55 and even the dew points well south of here are not that impressive with this kind of system. The system later this week has a good shot of a severe outbreak to the southeast of us.

Winds will be picking up in just a few hours. Winds gusting 25 to 35 mph in the Western half of KY at this time per KY Mesonet sites.

While this winter has not achieved what most snow weenies would like, still have a staple item to look back on and that was the pre-Xmas “blizzard” and bitter cold. That was epic and historical.

Still time for a big dog as other have mentioned, but as each day goes by, climo is pushing back. We shall see!

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 9:19 am While this winter has not achieved what most snow weenies would like, still have a staple item to look back on and that was the pre-Xmas “blizzard” and bitter cold. That was epic and historical.

Still time for a big dog as other have mentioned, but as each day goes by, climo is pushing back. We shall see!

This winter and especially Feb has been noted for wind makers. Seemed more like March than Feb and my guess deeper into March it will feel more like Feb. Blocking in Jan and Feb has not been there at all and though we have seen many systems come through here they have been mild but progressive so rainfall totals have not gotten out of hand. That is good new for any major flooding and sure we could still see some heavier rains in March and April but with the vegetation coming out early that also helps for flooding aspects.

My biggest concern is early heat this summer as the central and southern plains really need some rainfall over the next month or so and since the west has done well expect heat waves to form more where a possible drought is located and that is in the central part of the country.

MJO models continue to show it in Phase 8 and at a high amplitude too after 3/10. Also seeing the -WPO, -EPO, and -NAO all going negative as well. Hopefully we'll see some of those changes during the 2nd week of March. Better signals for below avg temps are ahead. For the last couple of months, with these intense lows that we keep getting, that is one reason why the winds have been so strong with the majority of storm systems. this winter. Big time pressure and temp. gradients have fueled stronger storms.

Band of showers with the warm front working thru. I had some gusty winds with the earlier sun breaks. Wind has relaxed due to clouds / rain. I suspect once the dry slot comes in the winds will crank up later along with a few sun breaks. Central IN on north has an MD out for a 60% chance of a tornado watch to be issued later.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0204.html

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:49 am Band of showers with the warm front working thru. I had some gusty winds with the earlier sun breaks. Wind has relaxed due to clouds / rain. I suspect once the dry slot comes in the winds will crank up later along with a few sun breaks. Central IN on north has an MD out for a 60% chance of a tornado watch to be issued later.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0204.html

I agree Les and already one warning in central Illinois. I agree with the central In and northern 2/3rds of Ohio have a chance of an isolated Tornado. I believe locally we are okay but never rule out completely with a set up like this. Biggest concern will be the gusty winds as we have seen with many of the systems over the past couple of months.

Tornado watch issued for areas NW of Cincy Metro.

Not much time to recover but need to watch this area of filtered sunshine/clearing ahead of the front.

CAPE values of 500 J/KG on the IL / IN border counties where those cells are firing.

Locally, NAM-HR is the most aggressive from a simulated reflectivity standpoint for additional convection this afternoon down this way. Watch and wait as always.

58 degree dews here. 60 degree dews are working into West Central KY now. Low is pretty strong at 984 MB over the Quad Cities.

Based on directional movement, this is the area we need to watch for convective development. Again, window of destabilization is small so that is on our side to help keep things in check. By that I mean anything widespread. Isolated severe cells with wind, hail, and tornadoes are very much still on the table.

Getting a heavy downpour now. Not much wind just a good ole fashioned rain shower.

Front about to enter Indiana

Buddy at ILN is saying that, while moisture is better down this way, lift is better north.

Yes the dew points have risen but it will be short lived as once the front passes by dew points go down in a hurry. The drier air moving in from the southwest as Paducah down to 47 dew and Owensboro dropped 3 degrees as winds shift. Next will be Louisville and then CVG. The rains over the pass few hours has also put a damper on severe weather locally. Again gusty winds yes but timing is critical and that looks to be further north in terms of severe weather and like Trevor mentioned the lift is much better further north and you can see some isolated storms forming and some may contain a tornado or two.

Currently 50 here in G'ville and 53 at DAY. ILN projects 61 here and 63 in DAY for today.

Great Map Bgoney and the good thing for us that is moving northeast quickly and much drier air is coming in from the southwest. Never rule out an isolated storm but imo the best chances are to the north.

this system is giving me a winter weather advisary for 3-5" of snow . starting later today.