Absolute Vorticity

We're going to see ice and sleet too but the more these trends work in, the better chance we've got to keep the power on. Wonderful trends!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:43 pm 12Z HRRR Only had me getting 2-3" of snow. 18Z run is 4-5". I'll take it!

Les we are getting there slowly but steady.

Still snowing at 7am Friday.

HRRR has the last six or so hours of snow at 15:1+ ratios.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:48 pm HRRR has the last six or so hours of snow at 15:1+ ratios.

I would really like to see that Trev. BTW the NAM is running

12z HRRR vs 18z HRRR. As has already been noted, a fairly significant tug south.

18Z NAM just may tick South a bit. Not a lot but a bit. 12Z NAM had me frz rain at 15 Z Thurs. On this run I am sleeting by then.

Kentucky under a State of Emergency for Thursday with all state offices closed and bringing out the National Guard and state police to help with any problems.

850s slightly colder at hour 21.

I-70 Crew should begin to get hammered tomorrow afternoon in he snow dept. Dayton posters first,. Columbus posters later being further East.

NAM doesnt seem to be budging much for the metro area.

850s three degrees cooler than 12z at hour 27. Changing to snow in Hamilton County on this run when it was flirting between ZR and sleet on 12z.

I certainly like the trends of the NAM!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:02 pm NAM doesnt seem to be budging much for the metro area.

I agree and the track of the storm is pretty set by this time but we still have the thermals to deal with and that is not set at all.

18z NAM def a step in right direction for changeover to snow here in the Dayton area.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:02 pm NAM doesnt seem to be budging much for the metro area.

I disagree. 12z VS 18z. Colder 850s, quicker transition.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:48 pm HRRR has the last six or so hours of snow at 15:1+ ratios.

I remember you mentioning that earlier this morning Trev.

The 18Z NAM seems to have shifted everything a solid county SE in the metro from the 12Z, a good 30 mile shift in our favor.

Sawdoggie wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:10 pm The 18Z NAM seems to have shifted everything a solid county SE in the metro from the 12Z, a good 30 mile shift in our favor.

Indeed. Here's 12z VS 18z NAM snowfall

The transition period from rain to ice to snow seems to be wrong on the hi-res models if you compare the initialization to current conditions. Are you guys seeing this?

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:06 pm

mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:02 pm NAM doesnt seem to be budging much for the metro area.

I disagree. 12z VS 18z. Colder 850s, quicker transition.

I do stand corrected lol. Thank you.

All of the guidance is indicating about the same for the start. I like that 4am, idea for CVG to go from rain to frz rain then. I like sleet to fall after 10am then snow after 5pm. If that timing works out, 4" at CVG is absolutely doable if not more. Let's see how we nowcast tomorrow on that.

I think a 4-8" gradient is good from N Cincy burbs to I-70 Crew. Could see 6-10" from I-70 on north. That kind of thing. Eric is still the guy to get double digits. Best shot on the forum IMO.

I also believe the area of sleet has shrunk today and is a more narrow band than it showed yesterday.

I am loving these trends guys....whos with me??

MD for hvy snow IND to DTW for this afternoon and evening came out a couple of hours ago:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0110.html