Absolute Vorticity

NWS Wilmington says they have seen temps fall from the upper 30s into the mid teens in 2 hours already in Indiana.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:24 pm Hey Les and drinking a rum slush tonight that my wife made. I am usually a beer drinker but had this last night and what a punch lol. I will throw out a few takes here in the next 10 minutes or so. Just looking over some info

Awesome! Sounds good Tim! We need to get together one day. We've talked about it before but this year in 2023, we need to like really make it a point!

Yes we do Les and by July I will have moved my son and his family to Wisconsin and will be travel very little. Les you threw out some wonderful points and to me the key overnight is to get that negative tilt. That helps in strengthening the system and gives us several more hours of snowfall. This has been a team effort on this storm and the models have given us head fakes but I believe before all is said and the forecast will turn out well. Is the forecast perfect and very seldom do see anything close to perfect in a winter storm but this has been on our radar for days and probably weeks to a certain extent.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:14 pm I'm back!!! Let's get this party started. Got my beer and I had to crack open the peach bird dog for this system! So before that all takes over later, let's get some analysis in.

In a few hours, Les posts "Snow! Hammer don't hurt em, Vanilla's ice is here- woohoo"

Rain here and while it feels colder, still showing 45 on our app.

It’s 45° in RIpley at the moment, but I went ahead and put plenty of salt on the driveway and sidewalk while wearing shorts and flip flops

Mjr wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 5:45 pm I just turned on our heat lamp in the chicken coop.
A few of my chickens are moulting now.. Mother Nature
Sure has a sense of humor! Currently 43 here.

Be very careful with the heat lamp, coop fires are bad news. If hens are used to warm and your power goes out, it is very hard on them. I have almost a 100 hens and they are fine. Wind protection and good ventilation is all they need. Good luck

The split is getting closer to us.

I am pretty sure the front is crossing the area now. Brighter area on radar.

Sorry all, Trevor kept me on the phone! We had a conf call and came up with the following:

This has the potential of an overachieving system! We are sticking with an event total of 3-6" valid from now thru 6am 12/25 as I posted earlier. But we truly feel this has overachiever written all over it for some portion of the AV Forum area. Let's enjoy it, and have a great time this evening and please remain safe! Hope everyone can maintain their power!!!


AV FORUM IS OFFICIALLY IN STORM MODE

Rain in oxtown. Temps starting to drop from a high of 43 at 6, now down to 41. .13” of rain so far. For the first time in 29 years, I am not stressing and prepping plow trucks. Turned the outside lights on, poured a nice bourbon, just going to kick back and let it happen. Retirement from snow plowing is awesome!

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:05 pm Screenshot 2022-12-22 at 19.05.41.png

I am pretty sure the front is crossing the area now. Brighter area on radar.

Looking great and will switch to snow between 8-9 in the I-275 area. Some nice returns south in Kentucky heading this way and with the cold air moving in fast the remainder of the evening into early Friday looks great. I would not be surprised to have a brief period of ice pellets or sleet but this will not last long so if you hear a little pinging on the windows it should last no more than 5 minutes

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:05 pm Screenshot 2022-12-22 at 19.05.41.png

I am pretty sure the front is crossing the area now. Brighter area on radar.

Agreed. 44 / 42 now 0.05" here

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:09 pm Rain in oxtown. Temps starting to drop from a high of 43 at 6, now down to 41. .13” of rain so far. For the first time in 29 years, I am not stressing and prepping plow trucks. Turned the outside lights on, poured a nice bourbon, just going to kick back and let it happen. Retirement from snow plowing is awesome!

You picked the right time to enjoy one! This is going to be so awesome to track and observe for the next several days just due to the cold temps alone!

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:10 pm

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:05 pm Screenshot 2022-12-22 at 19.05.41.png

I am pretty sure the front is crossing the area now. Brighter area on radar.

Looking great and will switch to snow between 8-9 in the I-275 area. Some nice returns south in Kentucky heading this way and with the cold air moving in fast the remainder of the evening into early Friday looks great. I would not be surprised to have a brief period of ice pellets or sleet but this will not last long so if you hear a little pinging on the windows it should last no more than 5 minutes

Strongly agree...

43 / 40 - 0.06" rain The temp drop has begun!

44/37 with 0.04 in rainfall

First salt truck of the season for me. Treating the roads in Fairfield…

T_arnett wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:48 pm It’s 45° in RIpley at the moment, but I went ahead and put plenty of salt on the driveway and sidewalk while wearing shorts and flip flops

Come do mine Travis!

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:09 pm Rain in oxtown. Temps starting to drop from a high of 43 at 6, now down to 41. .13” of rain so far. For the first time in 29 years, I am not stressing and prepping plow trucks. Turned the outside lights on, poured a nice bourbon, just going to kick back and let it happen. Retirement from snow plowing is awesome!

i don't like you. lol But am envy of you. The stress level is off the charts. Got one plow working the other is not. At least i can use my bulk spreader.

If you look at the radar, you're thinking to yourself man, that is not a very wide band of snow! You're right... But what's going to happen is once that phasing begins and this system really gets going, that band will slow and pivot before moving off to the NE by morning as the trough continues to go negative tilt and deepen. If you are in that band of snow when it slows and pivots, you will overachieve. That is what is going to happen. Modeling IMO has it right along the I-71 Corridor thru the heart of the Metro and AV Country. Reality says??? We'll find out tonight.

45 IMBY

Hopefully everyone's outside Christmas decor, including mine, makes it through the winds.

41 here in G'ville.

We have so many wonderful folks who clear the streets and many on this forum and thank you so much.

Les, you should change the name of the thread to “White Christmas 2022”. It’s not a dream any longer, my friend. We finally got ourselves a big one!!