Absolute Vorticity

Dropped to 52 here in my hood. CIPS guidance has shifted the 30%+ severe prob over into eastern OH and PA for Friday/Friday night, and even has a small 45% area for Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic. Talk about an area that has overperformed in severe weather the past year or so....that would be the Mid Atlantic and Northeast!

It does look as if we will have more chances of storms into at least the first part of July....better than this 14 day dry spell I have going now! LOL

I am on Day 7 here of being dry. Tomorrow is going to be 8 before the chances slowly start to increase.

Good Morning and another beautiful day in store. Still have the windows opened which is wonderful. So will we get any rain starting Friday through the Holiday weekend. Normally in summer with some humidity around chances of getting an shower at your house is probably 10-20p/c. With a really nice front nearby and the feed of moisture this weekend those chances are more in the 50-60 p/c chance. Again my guess is some folks will get unlucky and miss out and that is summer around here. Saying that I expect numerous showers and thundershowers so coverage is greater than a normal summer weekend. Hopefully these happen when folks are not trying to set off fireworks or have a party but the 4-8pm time period is the most likely time but they can occur at any time. The front will sort of dissipate over us as ridging will try to build in for a short period before the next front similar to the one this weekend moves this way. Still expecting some nice cold mornings and maybe some frost in parts of New England in the next week as the rather strong low over Northeast Canada will have its own cold air plus grabbing some from Greenland which as been really cold this spring and early summer.

It sure does feel nice out. It'll be hotter today but the humidity is still low. That should increase tomorrow and esp by Friday when the chances for storms begins to increase. That begins our new July thread.

Today marks the 10 year Anniv. of the June 29, 2012 derecho. Do you remember it? Awesome write up from KILN:


https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d0 ... 2d27b1d18a

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:15 am Today marks the 10 year Anniv. of the June 29, 2012 derecho. Do you remember it? Awesome write up from KILN:


https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d0 ... 2d27b1d18a

Thanks for sharing Les. Great read!!

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:51 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:15 am Today marks the 10 year Anniv. of the June 29, 2012 derecho. Do you remember it? Awesome write up from KILN:


https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d0 ... 2d27b1d18a

Thanks for sharing Les. Great read!!

Not a problem, Bo! I thought so too. Great meteorological explanations on how it formed etc. A good learning tool for those interested.

Just found another good read too. US Supercomputers for weather models and climate forecasting, are getting a major upgrade:

https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-a ... O0SpNekU6s

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:43 pm

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:48 am Thanks so much! I couldn’t ask for a more beautiful day. I took the day off and am going to enjoy the sunshine!

Happy birthday! Les took up a collection, we all pitched in and bought you this beautiful weather day. Hope you like it.

It was just what I wanted! Can't thank y'all enough!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:27 am Good morning folks and I'd like to wish one of our long time friends and posters, Leslie aka kywthrluvr, a very Happy Birthday today! A great weather day for her plans as well as everyone else's.

Happy Birthday, Leslie!!

Thanks so much!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:51 pm HAPPY BIRTHDAY LESLIE AND I HOPE THAT YOU'RE ENJOYING YOUR SPECIAL DAY, WXBUDDY!!

Currently 77 here in G'ville.

Thank you! It was a great day!

82 here while CVG checks in at 84 as of the 3pm reading. Humidity still in check so while its warm, it is not horrible at all. A nice summer day to be honest. Too bad the humidity will start to come in tomorrow and you'll really feel it by Friday. It'll stick around for a while too with that front over the OV that we are discussing in the July thread.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:15 am Today marks the 10 year Anniv. of the June 29, 2012 derecho. Do you remember it? Awesome write up from KILN:


https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d0 ... 2d27b1d18a

Very interesting bro!

That was the year before my folks and I moved to Greenville. Were living in Raleigh, NC at the time.

the summer has been below avg in the temp department, not even one 90 degree day yet. it will never last with the next 2 hottest months coming but i am enjoying it !

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:48 am the summer has been below avg in the temp department, not even one 90 degree day yet. it will never last with the next 2 hottest months coming but i am enjoying it !

Wow! That is awesome Charles! We've had 6 so far. Avg should be around 4 thru the end of June.

The moderation continues....each morning a bit warmer than the prior. This morning dropped to a still pleasant 58 though! But warmest morning in a few days.

I had 63, CVG 65 this morning.

I'm trying to analyze the overnight runs as i wait for the 12z NAM runs to complete. It looks like the POP chances for Sat are fading, other than a line of showers and downpours coming thru overnight into sat morning. am i seeing this correctly?

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:58 am I'm trying to analyze the overnight runs as i wait for the 12z NAM runs to complete. It looks like the POP chances for Sat are fading, other than a line of showers and downpours coming thru overnight into sat morning. am i seeing this correctly?

Past NAM and Euro runs have indicated that, correct. 0Z GFS hangs the front up on top of the Tri-state but the 6Z run finally caved in and pushed it thru. This is also my current expectation provided that the data doesn't change.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:35 am

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:58 am I'm trying to analyze the overnight runs as i wait for the 12z NAM runs to complete. It looks like the POP chances for Sat are fading, other than a line of showers and downpours coming thru overnight into sat morning. am i seeing this correctly?

Past NAM and Euro runs have indicated that, correct. 0Z GFS hangs the front up on top of the Tri-state but the 6Z run finally caved in and pushed it thru. This is also my current expectation provided that the data doesn't change.

Thanks. Hopefully we can all get a little from that overnight line to water our lawns, gardens and beds!

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:35 am

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:58 am I'm trying to analyze the overnight runs as i wait for the 12z NAM runs to complete. It looks like the POP chances for Sat are fading, other than a line of showers and downpours coming thru overnight into sat morning. am i seeing this correctly?

Past NAM and Euro runs have indicated that, correct. 0Z GFS hangs the front up on top of the Tri-state but the 6Z run finally caved in and pushed it thru. This is also my current expectation provided that the data doesn't change.

Thanks. Hopefully we can all get a little from that overnight line to water our lawns, gardens and beds!

No doubt! I'm all for it.

89 as of 2pm at CVG...

90 as of 3pm at CVG...

Pretty impressive - I can see the thunderstorm anvil of the Frankfort, KY storm from Dayton (90+ miles as the crow flies!). Time stamp 9:00pm

Got to 92 in CVG and 91 in both DAY and CMH for the last day in June.