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Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:02 pm
by young pup
My cousin in Columbia Missouri says 5 to 6 on the ground with blowing and drifting. Expecting another 3 to 5 tonight.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:03 pm
by Trevor
kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:00 pm
Speaking of work, I'm trying to decide whether or not to go in tomorrow. My intent was to go in and maybe work a half-day then head home. Thoughts on timing? My commute is short but I do not want to drive on ice if I don't have to.
I agree with Tim.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:09 pm
by wrmwxfreak
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:25 am
12Z CMC has heavy snow NW counties... sleet storm I-71 Corridor and ice storm SE counties. Seems to fit the theme of the forecast very well.
Okay, Les, my apologies, but I am severely directionally challenged. Many times you use terms like NW counties, 1-71 Corridor, metro, etc, but I’m not sure where I fit into that. Will you please tell me where Middletown (NW corner of Warren county) fits into that terminology?
Thanks so much!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:10 pm
by BookNerdCarp
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:18 pm
rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:16 pm
Oh no... here he comes...
"
Oh brother
Nothing like Cantore driving through flurries to get the world excited. SMH
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:14 pm
by tron777
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:25 am
12Z CMC has heavy snow NW counties... sleet storm I-71 Corridor and ice storm SE counties. Seems to fit the theme of the forecast very well.
Okay, Les, my apologies, but I am severely directionally challenged. Many times you use terms like NW counties, 1-71 Corridor, metro, etc, but I’m not sure where I fit into that. Will you please tell me where Middletown (NW corner of Warren county) fits into that terminology?
Thanks so much!
You're NW of I-71, N Cincy burbs area, etc.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:14 pm
by nkyoutdoors
NWS INDY says the arctic boundary has reached their office on the SW side of town:
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:14 pm
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:03 pm
kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:00 pm
Speaking of work, I'm trying to decide whether or not to go in tomorrow. My intent was to go in and maybe work a half-day then head home. Thoughts on timing? My commute is short but I do not want to drive on ice if I don't have to.
I agree with Tim.
I will third this lol
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:16 pm
by tpweather
Going to be a fun evening and lets hope the models continue the good news. I was supposed to paint the dining room on Thursday but I told the boss I need a snow day on Thursday but will be back at work on Friday.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:18 pm
by kywthrluvr
Ugh thanks all. I was afraid that was the answer. I’m trying to be judicious with my vacation usage and was hoping roads might still be OK at lunchtime.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:26 pm
by Trevor
Graphic from the Dallas WFO comparing last Feb to this Feb. Last year was probably a once in a lifetime storm for them, including the power grid failure. Still rough for them but nothing like that.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:28 pm
by wrmwxfreak
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:14 pm
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:25 am
12Z CMC has heavy snow NW counties... sleet storm I-71 Corridor and ice storm SE counties. Seems to fit the theme of the forecast very well.
Okay, Les, my apologies, but I am severely directionally challenged. Many times you use terms like NW counties, 1-71 Corridor, metro, etc, but I’m not sure where I fit into that. Will you please tell me where Middletown (NW corner of Warren county) fits into that terminology?
Thanks so much!
You're NW of I-71, N Cincy burbs area, etc.
So I’m in the heavy snow zone, then?
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:30 pm
by tron777
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:28 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:14 pm
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:25 am
12Z CMC has heavy snow NW counties... sleet storm I-71 Corridor and ice storm SE counties. Seems to fit the theme of the forecast very well.
Okay, Les, my apologies, but I am severely directionally challenged. Many times you use terms like NW counties, 1-71 Corridor, metro, etc, but I’m not sure where I fit into that. Will you please tell me where Middletown (NW corner of Warren county) fits into that terminology?
Thanks so much!
You're NW of I-71, N Cincy burbs area, etc.
So I’m in the heavy snow zone, then?
You'll get 4" of snow or so probably. Sleet and frz rain too. It'll be a mess!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:30 pm
by Trevor
Last three runs of the SREF. Noticeable shift southeast.
Edit: they uploaded in the wrong order; oldest run is last, newest is first.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:34 pm
by Trevor
Mean for CVG is up to 2.57", max weenie member is up to 12.78"
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:35 pm
by tron777
15Z SREF plumes are coming up for snow showing the southward trend we've been seeing in the guidance all day. Means...
CVG - 2.6"
HAO - 3.4"
MGY - 4"
DAY - 5.6"
CMH - 3.5"
Great news here!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:36 pm
by tron777
We got a NAM'ing coming on around 3, wouldn't you say?
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:37 pm
by mikeyp
18Z HRRR Looks pretty sweet id say!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:38 pm
by Sawdoggie
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:34 pm
Mean for CVG is up to 2.57", max weenie member is up to 12.78"
That was the same weenie member that called for the Bengals to be in the Superbowl at the beginning of the season, right?!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:40 pm
by Snowman
All models for sure today have shifted southeast with the snow and colder thermals. All seem to be coming in line with GFS which has been amazingly steady each run. With such a complex system it is the only one that has not waffled.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:40 pm
by Trevor
Sawdoggie wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:38 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:34 pm
Mean for CVG is up to 2.57", max weenie member is up to 12.78"
That was the same weenie member that called for the Bengals to be in the Superbowl at the beginning of the season, right?!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:41 pm
by tron777
mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:37 pm
18Z HRRR Looks pretty sweet id say!
Wow... major SE shift from the 12Z run. This is going to be a good run!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:42 pm
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:41 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:37 pm
18Z HRRR Looks pretty sweet id say!
Wow... major SE shift from the 12Z run. This is going to be a good run!
Indeed. I'll have the comparison graphics up shortly.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:42 pm
by Trevor
Snow still coming down by 5am Friday.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:43 pm
by tron777
12Z HRRR Only had me getting 2-3" of snow. 18Z run is 4-5". I'll take it!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:44 pm
by tron777
4-5" for NKY, 6" N of river and 8-10" I-70 Crew per 18Z HRRR - that is snowfall only.