Absolute Vorticity

Epic lol

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:47 pm

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:45 pm

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.

Kansas City Chiefs plane is on a ground stop due to ice in KC

They aren’t leaving anytime soon.

Nice job on whoever decided leaving tonight was best.

Some exceptional planning.

Come on Kansas City get it together because we made need you to play on Sunday.

Has anyone mentioned the 'B' word yet? Looks like we meet Criteria Sunday evening... Not to jinx anything

partymarty wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:55 pm Has anyone mentioned the 'B' word yet? Looks like we meet Criteria Sunday evening... Not to jinx anything

Yep. Monday too with the deformation band is when I think we'll be awfully close to meeting the criteria. Here is the official definition from ILN:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/criteria-winter

Good to see you guys getting a storm for a change!!
Lester!

BG is on!

Blogsdon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 7:12 pm Good to see you guys getting a storm for a change!!
Lester!

Hey Brian! Nice to see you. Hope all is well!

Heading to the recliner to watch the Bengals. I'll be checking in on my phone for updates. Thanks all for all the work and analyzation you do.

0Z Suite has started with the HRRR.

Start Up Times listed for everyone from the boys:

0z HRRR has the start at about 11:00am for Cincinnati.

The run is pretty close to the 18Z so far I think.

SLP might be a tad stronger but this is a nice run so far for the Metro on north. Sun afternoon and evening is def hammer time!

We finally change to sleet by late evening but not before we get walloped with snow first for a good 8 hour period.

Then we get the dry slot and receive sleet and or frz rain all night Sun night light precip). Deform snows return Mon late morning tapering off in the evening hours like 5-7pm range. That is my thinking anyway and I think this is where most of the guidance is headed.

Looks like the dry slot gets close to I-70 on this run, pretty far north. (Again contains light sleet / frz drzl precip since the precip rate backs off)

Les did you check out the latest SREF. I believe you will enjoy the latest run

10.55" of snow on the mean for CVG on the new 21Z SREF Plume. Precip type shows the same thing HRRR is showing too. Snow then we back off the rate and get sleet / frz drzl then back to snow. Pretty simple ptype evolution to me. Juicy though! 1.89" QPF mean.

21Z SREF Mean

CVG - 10.55"
ILN - 11.35"
HAO - 11.97"
MGY - 11.8"
DAY - 10.26"
CMH - 9.1"

Sidney, OH - 7.64"

HRRR, sleet holds off this run, majority is snow in CVG area.

I like a time line for snow with the deform band on Monday (for Cincy) to be 10am thru 5-6pm or something like that. Should be wind driven fluffy snow with the deform band. Looks great on the 0Z HRRR. Glad to see the hi res guidance have it.

00Z HRRR

Are you not worried bout that Dry slot cutting down on deform band. Hate to see that get eaten up

0Z NAM incoming...

alexdever73 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:46 pm Are no worried bout that Dry slot cutting down on deform band. Hate to see that get eaten up

With the accumulations in the models, I’m not sure anyone is bothered by that. We get it just about every time.