Absolute Vorticity

Today's 12Z OP GFS is a little stronger again for Monday's system so it certainly looks to be another good wind maker. Still waiting until we get closer in terms of any strong to severe t-storm prospects. Then for early March, we get a cutter dragging a cold front thru on 3/2 with a trailing low working up the front on 3/3 for a possible snow storm. It'll probably end up being a cutter in the end screwing us over but it is something to watch all the same. It looks like we get a spike in the PNA and the ridge axis is closer to the coast which helps. Of course being 200+ hours away there is plenty that can go wrong.

The 12Z CMC is like the Euro where the low gets cranked up very early instead of it being a trailing wave along the front like the GFS. Foreign models continue to want to bomb the low out so it would be a severe wx chance if that solution is right. So around the 3/3 or 3/4 timeframe is it snow or severe wx? You make the call.

The biggest difference I can see is wave spacing. We don't get the PNA spike on the foreign models because the next system is already crashing into the West Coast so the raging -PNA continues. The GFS has more spacing between the waves so the PNA spike occurs to help us out. The seasonal trend has been for the -PNA to rule so it is hard to go against it. But the GFS's solution isn't meteorologically impossible either especially this far out where models will in no way handle the wave spacing correctly at this distance.

man they blew it on the temps here today. they said 60 and its only 45

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:44 am man they blew it on the temps here today. they said 60 and its only 45

64 at CVG as of 11am. I wonder how rare it is to get back to back 70 degree days in February? Pretty incredible!

Make that 69 now at CVG as of 12pm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:31 pm

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:14 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:19 am Pretty gusty winds here today. I'm guessing gusting 30 to 40mph??? If it wasn't for the wind it wouldn't be a bad day at all for February.

Edit: http://hint.fm/wind/

Saving that link to my favs!

In addition, this is also another good resource:

https://www.ventusky.com/

Oh yea. Forgot about that one!

This is a very interesting map I found on Twitter. It shows the average decline of snowfall over the last 50 years. Most of the country is seeing much less snow than 50 years ago. The biggest exception is the coastline of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. During the 90's Dayton averaged 29 inches of snow. That was the average from the 60's, 70's and 80's. We are now down to around 24-25 inches per year in Dayton.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:02 pm This is a very interesting map I found on Twitter. It shows the average decline of snowfall over the last 50 years. Most of the country is seeing much less snow than 50 years ago. The biggest exception is the coastline of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. During the 90's Dayton averaged 29 inches of snow. That was the average from the 60's, 70's and 80's. We are now down to around 24-25 inches per year in Dayton.

Great Map Doug. Would love to see what the change was from say 1924-1973. Over the past 5 years my guess is the arctic regions are way up on their snow totals as water vapor out of the oceans have been greater than normal and we are seeing heavier snows further north including the arctic circle. Cycles is everything in weather but trying to figure out the cycles is not easy.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:02 pm This is a very interesting map I found on Twitter. It shows the average decline of snowfall over the last 50 years. Most of the country is seeing much less snow than 50 years ago. The biggest exception is the coastline of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. During the 90's Dayton averaged 29 inches of snow. That was the average from the 60's, 70's and 80's. We are now down to around 24-25 inches per year in Dayton.

It's all relative to where you live. We used to avg 21.7" using the 1981-2010 climate normals at CVG. Since they are now using the newer climate normals from 1990-2020 our snowfall avg is up to 23.3" for an increase of 1.6" Our avg rainfall is up as are temps.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:57 pm Screenshot_20230223-125523_Chrome.jpg

The SE Ridge from hell is clearly evident.

12Z Euro also with a strong solution for the low on Monday. But buyer beware... the seasonal trend has been for these lows to weaken when we get closer so I am really not sure if there will be a severe threat on Monday yet or not. We'll just have to wait and see how strong that cutter actually gets.

Euro lost that monster low solution for 3/3 as I figured it would. It is taken a step towards the GFS, however, the low tracks thru our area as a 974 MB low. Another big wind maker if correct with some rain and storm action as well.

The 3rd/4th system is going to be the best chance yet for possible flooding rains in the OV. Low gets going much closer to the GOM than the past umpteenth lows, so should bring more moisture with it

A lot of my relatives in Southern Mich are without still without power from last night due to the ice storm. In some areas it was really bad especially out in Hillsdale co. No idea when it'll be back on either. Some est aren't until Sunday per Consumers Power. Most of the sleet and frz rain fell south of a GRR to Lansing line. Worst of the ice seemed to be in the southern 2 tiers of counties.

CVG may not make the record after all thanks to come clouds. 70 currently as of 2:30pm with a peak wind gust of 35 mph. Record is 72 from 1985 and 1996. We'll see...

To piggyback on the map that Bgoney posted on the previous page about the spring leaf out. Below is from BG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:32 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:02 pm This is a very interesting map I found on Twitter. It shows the average decline of snowfall over the last 50 years. Most of the country is seeing much less snow than 50 years ago. The biggest exception is the coastline of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. During the 90's Dayton averaged 29 inches of snow. That was the average from the 60's, 70's and 80's. We are now down to around 24-25 inches per year in Dayton.

It's all relative to where you live. We used to avg 21.7" using the 1981-2010 climate normals at CVG. Since they are now using the newer climate normals from 1990-2020 our snowfall avg is up to 23.3" for an increase of 1.6" Our avg rainfall is up as are temps.

Cincinnati has done well in the 90's and 2000's, if memory serves me, with more medium size storms. I'm guessing if you go back to the climate norm for Cincinnati from 1961-1990 Cincinnati averaged more than 23.3, but I couldn't be positive about that.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:41 pm CVG may not make the record after all thanks to come clouds. 70 currently as of 2:30pm with a peak wind gust of 35 mph. Record is 72 from 1985 and 1996. We'll see...

To piggyback on the map that Bgoney posted on the previous page about the spring leaf out. Below is from BG.

This is not a good sign. I have no knowledge about trees but my guess some will be damaged in March.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:32 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:02 pm This is a very interesting map I found on Twitter. It shows the average decline of snowfall over the last 50 years. Most of the country is seeing much less snow than 50 years ago. The biggest exception is the coastline of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. During the 90's Dayton averaged 29 inches of snow. That was the average from the 60's, 70's and 80's. We are now down to around 24-25 inches per year in Dayton.

It's all relative to where you live. We used to avg 21.7" using the 1981-2010 climate normals at CVG. Since they are now using the newer climate normals from 1990-2020 our snowfall avg is up to 23.3" for an increase of 1.6" Our avg rainfall is up as are temps.

Cincinnati has done well in the 90's and 2000's, if memory serves me, with more medium size storms. I'm guessing if you go back to the climate norm for Cincinnati from 1961-1990 Cincinnati averaged more than 23.3, but I couldn't be positive about that.

I suspect you're correct about that Doug. Then we had a downtick, then an uptick. Climate works in cycles.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:41 pm CVG may not make the record after all thanks to come clouds. 70 currently as of 2:30pm with a peak wind gust of 35 mph. Record is 72 from 1985 and 1996. We'll see...

To piggyback on the map that Bgoney posted on the previous page about the spring leaf out. Below is from BG.

This is not a good sign. I have no knowledge about trees but my guess some will be damaged in March.

I totally agree Tim. If the first week doesn't get 'em the second week could.

Just heard from my relatives in Southern Mich. Current ETA on when their power will be restored is March 2nd! There are lines down everywhere with many roads closed due to downed trees and powerlines. Hillsdale co definitely was one of the hardest hit areas in the state.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:53 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:32 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:02 pm This is a very interesting map I found on Twitter. It shows the average decline of snowfall over the last 50 years. Most of the country is seeing much less snow than 50 years ago. The biggest exception is the coastline of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. During the 90's Dayton averaged 29 inches of snow. That was the average from the 60's, 70's and 80's. We are now down to around 24-25 inches per year in Dayton.

It's all relative to where you live. We used to avg 21.7" using the 1981-2010 climate normals at CVG. Since they are now using the newer climate normals from 1990-2020 our snowfall avg is up to 23.3" for an increase of 1.6" Our avg rainfall is up as are temps.

Cincinnati has done well in the 90's and 2000's, if memory serves me, with more medium size storms. I'm guessing if you go back to the climate norm for Cincinnati from 1961-1990 Cincinnati averaged more than 23.3, but I couldn't be positive about that.

I suspect you're correct about that Doug. Then we had a downtick, then an uptick. Climate works in cycles.

Here is an interesting article on average snowfall in Cincinnati per decade since 1920:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/weathe ... 133228002/

We have less snow compared to 50 years ago because 50 years ago, we were experiencing much more snow than normal. The graph in the article gives a quick comparison by decade.
dano

Record high of 73 in CMH. Now it is down to 60. CVG fell short by 1 degree. Dayton Tied with a 70.

dano wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:12 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:53 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:32 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:02 pm This is a very interesting map I found on Twitter. It shows the average decline of snowfall over the last 50 years. Most of the country is seeing much less snow than 50 years ago. The biggest exception is the coastline of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. During the 90's Dayton averaged 29 inches of snow. That was the average from the 60's, 70's and 80's. We are now down to around 24-25 inches per year in Dayton.

It's all relative to where you live. We used to avg 21.7" using the 1981-2010 climate normals at CVG. Since they are now using the newer climate normals from 1990-2020 our snowfall avg is up to 23.3" for an increase of 1.6" Our avg rainfall is up as are temps.

Cincinnati has done well in the 90's and 2000's, if memory serves me, with more medium size storms. I'm guessing if you go back to the climate norm for Cincinnati from 1961-1990 Cincinnati averaged more than 23.3, but I couldn't be positive about that.

I suspect you're correct about that Doug. Then we had a downtick, then an uptick. Climate works in cycles.

Here is an interesting article on average snowfall in Cincinnati per decade since 1920:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/weathe ... 133228002/

We have less snow compared to 50 years ago because 50 years ago, we were experiencing much more snow than normal. The graph in the article gives a quick comparison by decade.

cinci snowfall by decade.JPG

dano

Thank you so much for finding this! It proves my post perfectly with regards to the 60s and 70s being more snowy. You can see the downtick after that then the uptick as well that I mentioned.