Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:54 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:40 pm
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:37 pm OMG No frigging way!

OMG.jpg
Where is that from? LOL
BAMwx.com

They are leaning heavily towards the high res models. Particularly the HRRR.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:54 pm**

I have a weather friend named David who is a Topeka, KS native and resides near Topeka.

Tonight

Freezing rain and sleet this evening, then sleet, snow and freezing rain after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Ice accumulation around a tenth of an inch. Brisk, cold with lows around 17. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Sunday

Sleet in the morning. Snow. Blowing snow. Precipitation may be heavy at times. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Blustery, cold with highs in the lower 20s. Temperature falling to around 15 in the afternoon. North winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wind chill values as low as 6 below in the afternoon.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening. Areas of blowing snow in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Blustery and much colder with lows around 1 below. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wind chill values as low as 15 below.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:09 pm**

Good Evening and a break from football. Just checked channel 5 and they are going 3-6 inches with sleet. Getting this close to the start of the storm and usually tv stations get very close in their forecast but not with this storm. Could they be correct and sure but would go with the higher total with their forecast. I saw that post of something like 12-18 inches and that is a big statement so is it 3 inches or 18 inches lol. Take the difference and we get 10.5 inches and I will take that in a minute.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:14 pm**

8-12"+ now from CB!

CB New Call.jpg

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:16 pm**

Well looks like some busts with forecast with this storm. This forum seems to be in the middle and believe that is a good place to be. Could things change overnight and sure but I still like what this forum is going with.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:17 pm**

I agree Tim. I am seeing more and more Mets and Media sources going with the higher numbers. I am excluding Bam Wx lol Anywho... We and ILN are in the middle with 5-10" for most folks.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:22 pm**

If we did not have a period of sleet I could see the 12-18” but that’s going to kill accumulations. Still be shoveling but don’t see anyone getting buried.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:23 pm**

How can BG go AWOL with the biggest winter storm in a decade approaching?

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:23 pm**

alexdever73 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:22 pm If we did not have a period of sleet I could see the 12-18” but that’s going to kill accumulations. Still be shoveling but don’t see anyone getting buried.

I do think a foot is doable though for folks who can remain all snow.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:24 pm**

oldspray wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:23 pm How can BG go AWOL with the biggest winter storm in a decade approaching?

I guess he took 2 weeks off for vacation.

He'll get the end of next week to deal with.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:25 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:17 pm I agree Tim. I am seeing more and more Mets and Media sources going with the higher numbers. I am excluding Bam Wx lol Anywho... We and ILN are in the middle with 5-10" for most folks.

I agree Les and do I want more snow with no ice or sleet and sure but with how I see this playing out I believe we must include a period sleet. I even have a possible turnover to just plain rain need Lexington. Southeast Kentucky could see temps getting to near 40 or so late on Sunday and early Monday as well. I do like the next system as well and we have been talking about that one as well for a period of time and yes before the models started to pick up on that system.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:30 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:25 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:17 pm I agree Tim. I am seeing more and more Mets and Media sources going with the higher numbers. I am excluding Bam Wx lol Anywho... We and ILN are in the middle with 5-10" for most folks.
I agree Les and do I want more snow with no ice or sleet and sure but with how I see this playing out I believe we must include a period sleet. I even have a possible turnover to just plain rain need Lexington. Southeast Kentucky could see temps getting to near 40 or so late on Sunday and early Monday as well. I do like the next system as well and we have been talking about that one as well for a period of time and yes before the models started to pick up on that system.

Feb of 2021 vibes... we must include sleet. Gotta. I am wondering one thing though. Do we remain snow longer with heavy precip rates thanks to dynamic cooling then sleet and frz drz if we get the dry slot so the mid levels warm up and we lose ice nucleation for snow flake development. Then windy and snowy on the backside on Monday. That would not be a bad scenario at all as long as the dry period is not longer then 6 hours or something.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:31 pm**

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:11 pm Who's excited!?! Les -- have the boys come out yet??

Here's our forecast from the Ohio Valley Weather Center LLC, Josh and my weather information and consulting business.

We're on Facebook -- feel free to give us a follow!

www.facebook.com/ovwcllc

Happy to see everyone!

Popping back in, just took a look at your most recent post. High winds overnight? Anyone care to elaborate? Bit concerned for my brother who could have issues if snow drifts enough (I don't think he wants to have to climb out a window to get a door cleared like our father did back in the 70's LOL).

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:33 pm**

shlybluz wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:31 pm
Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:11 pm Who's excited!?! Les -- have the boys come out yet??

Here's our forecast from the Ohio Valley Weather Center LLC, Josh and my weather information and consulting business.

We're on Facebook -- feel free to give us a follow!

www.facebook.com/ovwcllc

Happy to see everyone!
Popping back in, just took a look at your most recent post. High winds overnight? Anyone care to elaborate? Bit concerned for my brother who could have issues if snow drifts enough (I don't think he wants to have to climb out a window to get a door cleared like our father did back in the 70's LOL).

Picking up Sun night with the strongest winds Monday with mod to hvy snow on the backside of the low. Gusts in that 30-40 mph range with isolated 45's, are showing up in the data.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:37 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:18 pm Off Topic, but the 18Z GFS has a Gulf low cookin' (cold air supplied by a phased in clipper) for Friday. Seeing more and more model support for this. Euro too. We may have another thread to start guys after this one! EGADS!!

EDIT: Good snow pack refresher 3-5" event.
EDIT #2 watch that next system slipping in behind it on this run. What the hell is going on?

I saw that earlier, I like the thoughts of dual Lows tracking it in.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:38 pm**

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:37 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:18 pm Off Topic, but the 18Z GFS has a Gulf low cookin' (cold air supplied by a phased in clipper) for Friday. Seeing more and more model support for this. Euro too. We may have another thread to start guys after this one! EGADS!!

EDIT: Good snow pack refresher 3-5" event.
EDIT #2 watch that next system slipping in behind it on this run. What the hell is going on?
I saw that earlier, I like the thoughts of dual Lows tracking it in.

I was thinking the same thing! If we can get hit by both storms, what an epic winter this would be if nothing else happened!

We would have our seasonal norm in the books or close to it.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:39 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.

Kansas City Chiefs plane is on a ground stop due to ice in KC

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:41 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:38 pm
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:37 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:18 pm Off Topic, but the 18Z GFS has a Gulf low cookin' (cold air supplied by a phased in clipper) for Friday. Seeing more and more model support for this. Euro too. We may have another thread to start guys after this one! EGADS!!

EDIT: Good snow pack refresher 3-5" event.
EDIT #2 watch that next system slipping in behind it on this run. What the hell is going on?
I saw that earlier, I like the thoughts of dual Lows tracking it in.
I was thinking the same thing! If we can get hit by both storms, what an epic winter this would be if nothing else happened! We would have our seasonal norm in the books or close to it.

If history repeats, double barrel lows usually keep us cold and give us really good snowfalls.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:43 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:30 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:25 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:17 pm I agree Tim. I am seeing more and more Mets and Media sources going with the higher numbers. I am excluding Bam Wx lol Anywho... We and ILN are in the middle with 5-10" for most folks.
I agree Les and do I want more snow with no ice or sleet and sure but with how I see this playing out I believe we must include a period sleet. I even have a possible turnover to just plain rain need Lexington. Southeast Kentucky could see temps getting to near 40 or so late on Sunday and early Monday as well. I do like the next system as well and we have been talking about that one as well for a period of time and yes before the models started to pick up on that system.
Feb of 2021 vibes... we must include sleet. Gotta. I am wondering one thing though. Do we remain snow longer with heavy precip rates thanks to dynamic cooling then sleet and frz drz if we get the dry slot so the mid levels warm up and we lose ice nucleation for snow flake development. Then windy and snowy on the backside on Monday. That would not be a bad scenario at all as long as the dry period is not longer then 6 hours or something.

Great post Les and the dynamic cooling is one thing we need to watch. I keep talking about the northeast wind but its a big item imo with this storm. I do agree that after we get that first push from the southwest need to see if then we start to see a more west to east movement later in the evening. Could we see a location with a foot and sure if no changeover but having a huge area with 12 inches or more seem a tad high. The period of say 11a-6pm I have 2-4 inches but that may need to be adjusted a little higher and again 30 miles difference could see totals ranging form 1-2 inches to more than 4 because of that northeast wind eating up some of the moisture at the start. I love these kind of systems and really there are so many items in the equation and after awhile you just go with your best forecast and hope some of it turns out correct. I saw the post about the winds and not sure we get to a blizzard criteria but those winds with snow and my guess some power outages its not going to look nice on Monday. Also road crews do a great job but when you get hit first with some heavier snow you are working on the main roads and side streets may not be treated until Monday

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:43 pm**

18Z Euro is in let me get the text data. Hammers Cincinnati! A brief period of sleet but a lot of it is snow.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.5    -4.6    1025      65     100    0.05     558     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -2.8    1018      90     100    0.35     556     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.6    -2.3    1012      92      94    0.49     550     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -4.6    1009      87      76    0.15     542     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.5   -10.0    1013      87      99    0.10     537     527    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.2   -13.2    1021      82      40    0.04     540     524    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.0    -5.9    1025      47      99    0.02     557     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -3.9    1019      87     100    0.23     556     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -3.7    1013      91      98    0.37     549     539    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.0    -5.5    1010      85      91    0.13     542     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.5   -10.6    1013      89      98    0.09     537     527    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.5   -13.3    1020      82      38    0.02     539     523    

MGY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -4.6    1020      80     100    0.10     555     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.5    -4.3    1014      89     100    0.23     549     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.4    -5.9    1010      85      97    0.10     542     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.6   -10.9    1012      90      95    0.10     537     527    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.8   -13.5    1020      84      35    0.02     539     523    

DAY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -5.4    1020      72      99    0.03     555     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -5.3    1015      88     100    0.13     549     537    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.4    -6.4    1011      85      98    0.17     542     533    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.5   -11.5    1013      91      89    0.14     537     527    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.9   -13.8    1020      84      30    0.01     538     523   

CMH

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -6.4    1021      74      97    0.01     554     538    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -5.6    1015      87     100    0.11     550     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.3    -6.1    1011      84      94    0.07     542     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.8   -10.0    1010      85      98    0.05     537     529    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.2   -13.4    1018      79      21    0.01     536     523    
TUE 06Z 07-JAN  -6.5   -11.5    1023      84      37    0.01     539     521    

FGX

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.7    -4.2    1025      66      99    0.06     559     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -3.9    -1.6    1018      90      96    0.23     558     544    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.5     0.1    1010      92      91    0.42     553     545    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -3.9    -0.5    1006      91      39    0.13     544     539    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.6    -7.8    1009      87     100    0.05     537     530    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.7   -13.1    1019      85      54    0.10     539     525    
TUE 06Z 07-JAN  -7.0   -11.5    1024      87      25    0.01     543     524

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:44 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:33 pm
Picking up Sun night with the strongest winds Monday with mod to hvy snow on the backside of the low. Gusts in that 30-40 mph range with isolated 45's, are showing up in the data.

Thanks Les! Going to have to remind him to keep the doors clear if the winds are blowing things where it could be a concern if we get that fluffy stuff. He was born post-blizzard so he has no memory of being unable to get out of the house because the doors were drifted in.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:44 pm**

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.
Kansas City Chiefs plane is on a ground stop due to ice in KC

Do they not have forecasts out that way?

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:45 pm**

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.
Kansas City Chiefs plane is on a ground stop due to ice in KC

They aren’t leaving anytime soon.

Nice job on whoever decided leaving tonight was best.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:47 pm**

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:45 pm
Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.
Kansas City Chiefs plane is on a ground stop due to ice in KC
They aren’t leaving anytime soon.

Nice job on whoever decided leaving tonight was best.

Some exceptional planning.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:49 pm**

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:39 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.
Kansas City Chiefs plane is on a ground stop due to ice in KC

They'll be going to Denver for a 4:25 Sun.

Prayers with them and scores of other travelers to and fro.

Absolute Vorticity

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