Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:31 pm**

Heavy rain here!

Posted: **Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:31 pm**

Here’s an even better look at the location of the front thanks to the terminal doppler at CVG.

Posted: **Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:32 pm**

Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 40 Fri morning and then topping out at around 45 later in the day.

WHIO on the 5 PM segment showed my area for 2.60" by the time its a wrap. Interesting the fluctuations low pressure and frontal boundary-wise.

Posted: **Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:38 pm**

0.13" here now. 65 / 60 with light rain. Heavy cell now off to the east. Plenty more to come!

Posted: **Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:43 pm**

Very heavy rain now with decent thunder and lightning. No hail here but may be some just to my north.

Posted: **Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:04 pm**

Front has cleared the metro.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:00 am**

I recieved 1.15" of rain yesterday and already .96 today. If only this was snow lol!

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:39 am**

Will be curious to check the official gauge but my Davis gauge is nearing 3” storm total since 3/22

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 6:52 am**

Good Morning. The cold front is located near I-64 this morning. This is a classic overrunning event as the heaviest started near I-70 and shifted overnight as the front headed south. The front is probably going to stall which may be the case already and later today as low pressure forms over the southern plains the front will head north. How far north will determine if anybody in the local area could get into some stronger storms tonight.

Plenty of rain this morning and should start to ease from north to south before the main system comes in later today through Saturday morning. So far most folks are in the 1-2 inch range but as usual some totals are closer to 3 inches.

How much can we expect later tonight and another stronger surge of moisture is expected and most folks will probably get another 1-2 inches but my gut tells me some areas could get pounded for a few hours and 2-3 inches is possible. Looks like that area is further south for the heaviest rains tonight but need to see the track of the system

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:04 am**

Last night between 11:30 and midnight was the most recent time I checked my gauge. From Tues had .28" and Wed-Thurs .10", I emptied both of those amounts. Anyway going to be interesting what the final combo total after the Sat AM hours will be since Tues.

Currently 41 here and progged to top out at around 44 for today.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:14 am**

We have gotten 1 3/4 inches since 8 p.m. last night.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:23 am**

CVG as of 7am has 1.18" As of 7:23am, I have 1.27" in the books.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:39 am**

Tonight into tomorrow's batch is that next batch in Oklahoma with the surface low which plows thru on Saturday and thus the windy conditions. Remember, the heaviest rains are supposed to be with that second system.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:08 am**

Didn't get specifics on the official gauge, but the rain over spilled the small tube into the larger one so it says over 2" since last night.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:21 am**

The Indy radar is shut down so if you go to the Indy site it shows the radar before it was shut down. Forecast so far by the models pretty good though it had the front moving through quicker towards I-70 which was not the case on Thursday and why we saw some heavier amounts just north of the local area. Still more rain this morning though the heaviest is further south and west.

Severe weather is not likely tonight though never say never in late March with a nice warm/cold front combo. At the moment models are showing the heaviest rains in southwest Ky and southern Indiana tonight. If this pans out some places near Paducah could get 4 inches in a short amount of time which will no doubt cause flooding.

Going with another 1-2 locally tonight into early Saturday which will give most folks between 2-4 inches. Again some folks will get more and that is just the nature of these systems. One added bonus will be the winds especially on Saturday and would not be surprised to see gusts over 40 mph and this could lead to some older trees to come down with the wet soil.

This pattern looks to continue for another 10 days or so and then we may get into a decent milder pattern.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:34 am**

I'm thinking active with avg temps for April in the next few weeks. Highs in the 50s and low 60s with lows ion the 30s to around 40. On a day where we spike ahead of a cold front then severe wx will be in play. Just depends on if any warmth can get injected into the pattern.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:35 am**

No surprises thus far with this system and don’t expect any going forward, 1.25” here so far. Forecast looks good and models have done well from days out with event

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:52 am**

Temp holding steady here at 46 and will prob be within a degree or two of that all day then rise later tonight into early tomorrow before dropping again tomorrow afternoon. Gotta love March!

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:56 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:35 am No surprises thus far with this system and don’t expect any going forward, 1.25” here so far. Forecast looks good and models have done well from days out with event

Models have done well and like I mentioned the only item was the slowing of the front yesterday but that happens when you have waves of low pressure going by. Again the front slowing yesterday by about 4-6 hours was nothing major but kept some of the heavier rains last night a tad further north. All I care about with models is they have the correct ideal on systems and never going to be perfect as Mother Nature has her own timeline.

Just a side note and the big news has been out west with tons of rain and snow with some records no doubt in the snowfall totals. Media believes this has never happened before but this is not true by any means. Very few places in the world have the rainy season in winter like California. This will cause problems because vegetation is more on the dormant side. The climate out there is one when they can go years with very few systems and droughts form and then get a couple of really nice years with heavy rains but most of that falls in winter or early spring.

Once Hollywood became big in the 40's plus the weather in Southern California is really nice most of the year folks moved there for many reasons. The problem is so many folks and the water supply has a hard time keeping up especially the years of below normal rains.

Remember the song It never rains in southern California is a nice song that gives us a somewhat ideal of what the weather is most of the time in that part of the world.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:59 am**

I missed out on a lot of the scattered stuff yesterday afternoon, but last night was productive. 1.3" for an event total so far.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:06 am**

I agree fellas... the forecasts from everyone look good. A steady rain continues here of course. Will post an update soon.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:27 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:56 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:35 am No surprises thus far with this system and don’t expect any going forward, 1.25” here so far. Forecast looks good and models have done well from days out with event
Models have done well and like I mentioned the only item was the slowing of the front yesterday but that happens when you have waves of low pressure going by. Again the front slowing yesterday by about 4-6 hours was nothing major but kept some of the heavier rains last night a tad further north. All I care about with models is they have the correct ideal on systems and never going to be perfect as Mother Nature has her own timeline.

Just a side note and the big news has been out west with tons of rain and snow with some records no doubt in the snowfall totals. Media believes this has never happened before but this is not true by any means. Very few places in the world have the rainy season in winter like California. This will cause problems because vegetation is more on the dormant side. The climate out there is one when they can go years with very few systems and droughts form and then get a couple of really nice years with heavy rains but most of that falls in winter or early spring.

Once Hollywood became big in the 40's plus the weather in Southern California is really nice most of the year folks moved there for many reasons. The problem is so many folks and the water supply has a hard time keeping up especially the years of below normal rains.

Remember the song It never rains in southern California is a nice song that gives us a somewhat ideal of what the weather is most of the time in that part of the world.

Agree with everything you stated Tim. What has been going on in the west the last 20 or 30 years is a perfect example of what has gone on for that region over many centuries. Climate history proves that. There have been even longer droughts in that region. The dumbasses have a reservoir and water collection system designed for half the population that it supports but of course it’s the climates fault

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:31 am**

Looks like the front itself is starting to reverse and make its way northward. You can tell this as southeast winds will start to turn more from the south. This will be slow at first so locally temps should go no higher than 50 during the daylight hours. This evening we should rise as the storm moves this way and we wait on the next round of decent rains.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:39 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:31 am Looks like the front itself is starting to reverse and make its way northward. You can tell this as southeast winds will start to turn more from the south. This will be slow at first so locally temps should go no higher than 50 during the daylight hours. This evening we should rise as the storm moves this way and we wait on the next round of decent rains.

That front is wavy. There is a weak wave in ILL that will move into IN later that should pull the front northward a bit. Then it really comes northward of course tomorrow with the approach of the surface low down in OK this morning.

Posted: **Fri Mar 24, 2023 9:54 am**

1.80 in the rain gauge in my neck of the woods. It's got a damp winter chill out there this morning. 38 degrees

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